May 3, 2007 at 08:52 #1566AragornMember
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Seen as how we can only manage polls on previous 1000 guineas I thought I would start a discussion on the other classic of the weekend.
Admittedly it doesn;t look quite the race that the 2000 does but worthy of examination.
Favourite Finsceal Beo has probably the most solid form in the book with her two decisive successes at the end of last year. Many of the horses in behind in the marcel boussac have subsequently been well beaten which does degrade the form somewhat. The rockfel wasn’t that strong either. On the plus side however she has shown she stays the mile and handles g/f ground.
Sander Camillo was all the hype beforehand until being beaten on her reappearance. I think she may come on for that and wouldn;t write her off at this stage particularly with the ground conditions in her favour. It should also not be ignored that Noseda had three of the years best fillies last year (Simply Perfect and Rahiyah) and gives Sander Camillo the best chance. I think SP is an oaks horse but I like Rahiyah and given quicker ground I think she may make up ground on Finsceal Beo after being beaten in the rockfel.
Scarlet runner was perhaps underestimated on her form last year where she obviously didn;t handle the softer ground later in the season and I think she has a real live chance as she hs obviously trained on.
Her late season conqueror Indian Ink looks to be a soft ground horse and I would be more confident backing her in the Irish Guineas where there is inevitably more cut. The unbeaten Arch Swing comes here on the back of an unconvincing trial but John Oxx thinks enough of her to send her over the irish sea which is a hint in itself. She looks tough and genuine. Of the other overseas contenders Magic America hails from a trainer who knows how to win this race and I think she will fair better over the mile than the 6f of the chevely park. Having won first time out this season we also know she is in form.
In the context of this race Miss beatrix has beaten the favourite and some other of the more fancied fillies as well as some good colts. She handles the ground and the trip doesn;t look an issue. At the price I like her chances.
I can’t have Yaqeen because the price is insane given what she’s done but Jarvis nows how to get lightly raced horses ready as he showed with Hala Bek last year.
And I suppose you can’t look at a guineas without mentioning O’Brien. Theann was finishing like a train against Arch Swing and over further I might fancy her to reverse the placings but I dont fancy her to win.
So for me the favourite has an obvious chance and was mightily visually impressive however I feel the form may be being taken to literally and i’m going to put two up against her:
Scarlet Runner<br>Miss Beatrix
(Edited by Aragorn at 4:19 pm on May 5, 2007)May 4, 2007 at 08:51 #56477SalselonMember
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One filly I like here is Treat. She ran no sort of race on her first outing (according to Harry Herbert yesterday, she didn’t have a clue what to do), then won her maiden, with the first and second pulling 5 lengths clear. Just 8 days after a hard race she re-appeared in the fillies mile, and finished 2nd to Simply Perfect, suffering some interference (though probably not enough to have won).
Regarded as a filly with plenty of scope, a mile is likely to be her optimum distance (maybe 1m2), she is said to be quite well forward and Spencer committed himself plenty early to the ride.
Finscal Beo deserves favouritism, and has clearly the best chance but I think Treat must be tremendous value at the current prices.
(Edited by Salselon at 9:52 am on May 4, 2007)May 4, 2007 at 08:54 #56478AragornMember
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Interestingly Salselon they are saying she would prefer soft ground. The forecast I saw last would indicate we are going to get plenty of rain on sunday. Could be reminiscent of last years guineas weekend.. May be worth looking at horses like Indian Ink and Simply perfect as well with good to soft ground a possibility. It doesn’t really affect the favourite however who seems to be unconcerned by going.May 4, 2007 at 18:47 #56479ClintMMember
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Crab the form of the Boussac, but it is the best on offer for Sunday’s race. After all, Finsceal Beo actually won by wide daylight in a fast time. She couldn’t really do anymore than that.
Imho, Bolger’s filly will win – easily.May 5, 2007 at 12:46 #56481davidjohnsonMember
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The vibes seem to be that Sander Camillo just isn’t right at the minute. It would be impossible to be confident she could reproduce her juvenile form. Finsceal Beo sets the standard and if she runs to her Rockfel form, she wins. Of that clutch around 12/1 to 16/1 I’d much rather be with Indian Ink than the likes of Yaqeen, Miss Beatrix, Scarlet Runner etc. One at a huge price that I’ve had a few quid on is Darrfonah at 230’s on betfair. She has form with Finsceal Beo and Indian Ink and whilst she isn’t really entitled to finish in front of either of them, that sort of form is stronger than plenty have that are much shorter than her in the betting. Easy to forgive her run in Dubai because of the surface it may just be that she needs further than 7f.May 5, 2007 at 19:04 #56482FriggoMember
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I like Miss Beatrix. She has form on a few of the leading contenders, albeit on slightly soft ground. Also has good form with a run just 2 1/2 lengths behind HRE, and a relatively quick time. Very good value for me (16.5 on BF).May 5, 2007 at 21:51 #56486AnonymousInactive
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I dislike backing pubescent fillies at this time of the season as anything can happen, and often does.<br>The 2 that stand out on form (imo) would be Finsceal Beo and Miss Beatrix, with the latter reasonably sure to place at least.<br>Couldn’t have Sander Camillo at any price as I’m convinced she won’t stay. Would be a place lay, if I did such things.May 5, 2007 at 21:56 #56488FlashMember
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It has to be Finsceal Beo doesn’t it? Her form is way above anything elses and there is absolutely nothing that isn’t in her favour.
The one that nags at me is Miss Beatrix its the only filly I’d be a bit wary of.May 5, 2007 at 23:38 #56489LetsGetRacingMember
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On the figures Finsceal Beo will win this, and by some margin, but I can’t help feeling that the 50s available about Barshiba is too big.
She ran incredibly well, having given away eight lengths at the start, on debut when finishing second to a Tregoning filly by the name of Basaata (who in turn finished just behind Darrfonah on her first oting) and beat a useful colt of Mark Johnston’s readily next time. That horse has won twice since, and finished third in a fair Sandown handicap (the third placed horse has also run creditably subsequently).
David Elsworth’s better horses aren’t always fully tuned for their reappearances (Salford Mill improved markedly to comfortably hold the talented Acapulco and Eastern Anthem yesterday), and with that in mind Barshiba’s effort in the Nell Gwyn looks very good indeed. She was again slow away, and hung (possibly worryingly) under pressure, but was running on well at the end of seven furlongs and one can only imagine the step up to a mile is going to suit her down to the ground. Hopefully the tactically astute John ‘Jekyll’ Egan, rather than his ‘Hyde’ alter-ego, will be on board today.
She comes here unexposed and with plenty of ability, and could go well at a price.May 6, 2007 at 01:00 #56491Maxilon 5Member
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I think the winner comes from the Nell Gwyn, LGR, but it has to be Scarlet Runner for me, who for some reason, is available at a double figure price.
John Dunlop knows more than most what it takes to win a Guineas and Speciosa came from the same race last year. It has solid juvenile form and will relish fast ground. I can’t see this one out the frame.
Your horse is highly regarded though and was given an unambitious ride out the back in the Nell Gwyn. So best of luck.May 6, 2007 at 08:38 #56492apracingParticipant
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<br>Sander Camillo is confirmed a non runner on the BHB website.
APMay 6, 2007 at 08:43 #56493doyleyParticipant
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Yes, SCARLET RUNNER for me, Dunlop knows what’s going on as does his rider McEvoy who wouldn’t swop her for anything.
An outsider I have taken 75s for a place is McMahon’s CARTIMANDUA, from stall 2 should blaze along and hold at least third! :o
doyleyMay 6, 2007 at 10:42 #56495davidbradyMember
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I’m dutching Scarlet Runner and Miss Beatrix at about 13/2May 6, 2007 at 14:09 #56497Money onMember
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I cant understand why Miss Beatrix is so big? clearly the 2nd best form in the race with her last 2 runs. Regime also franked her form bigtime last week. Miss Beatrix a win and place bet for me.May 6, 2007 at 14:19 #56499Money onMember
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Hmm… shows why Miss Beatrix was the price she was, very nice performance by Finsceal Beo and how many owners can say they won an Aintree Hurdle and english 1000 guineas in the same season?
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