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I’m a huge fan of Maybe and feel she could be a really special horse. I think she is one of the most uncomplicated classy fillies I’ve seen at 2 and with further development she should be able to land the Guineas. I would also put a word forwards for Discourse who imo is the stable’s best 3yo filly by some way. Really impressed with her also and is value at the current prices.
i’ve had a few quid on lyric of light at 8s.
while i respect the fav, i can’t for the life of me see how she offers value at her current price. she isn’t very big, and might not train on as well as the scopey lyric of light, who for me looked like she had a huge turn of foot when she won the fillies mile. maybe doesn’t really have a change of gears, she just gallops and has a pedigree that suggest she’ll be better at further than a mile in time, and I can see the godolphin filly galloping all over her at the two furlong pole.
the plus side for maybe is however, that she’s bound to get the trip on ground that could be quite testing, is unbeaten and we know she’ll handle the ground. but its all about the price, and i’m not sure that taking short prices in classics is a long-term profitable strategy.
from the nick mordin website:
MAYBE NO CERTAINTY FOR CLASSIC SUCCESS
MAYBE (34) won yet again when taking the Moyglare Stud Stakes. But I’m afraid I still can’t join in the near universal acclaim for her talents as once more she didn’t run very fast.
This time around she had a pacemaker who set a strong pace and she was ridden right out. So I’m now rather sure that her dominance has resulted from what so far has been an unusually weak crop of 2YO fillies.
Usually when any division appears weak for most of the season several big new names emerge in the last few months of the year. My bet is that Maybe will bump into one or more of these if she runs in the Fillies Mile or Marcel Boussac and get beat.
doesn’t seem to be keen on discourse either;
DISCOURSE IS LITLE MORE THAN TALK
DISCOURSE (35) broke the juvenile course record and clocked a fair time when winning the Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. But I don’t think it was appropriate to make her second favourite for the 1000 Guineas on the back of this performance.
It’s not simply that Discourse clocked only merited a speed rating that’s Group 3 for a juvenile filly that’s putting me off. It’s the way she’s built and bred plus the way she raced.
In the closing stages the sheepskin noseband Discourse wears did not prevent her head coming up. She was clearly not exerting herself fully, ran green and slowed up to clock slower than 36 seconds for the last three furlongs. I’d expect a genuine Guineas candidate to show a much better finishing kick than that.
Discourse has the build of a ten furlong horse for me. Her sire was a ten furlong horse. Her dam showed her best beyond a mile. And her best sibling by far is Bandini who has already won a Group 1 over nine furlongs on dirt and may well stay further.
Perhaps Discourse will run faster as she gains experience and hopefully becomes more focused on racing. But I wouldn’t bet her doing so over a mile at three. I see her as a prospect for an Oaks Trial not the Guineas.
Anyone who manage to watch the coverage of the ballydoyle horse’s at the curragh back in March could not of failed to of be impressed by Maybe, she looked to done very well physically and was quite impressive in her work out with kissed that day. I think it will take a good filly to lower her colours on Sunday as im sure she was only every doing enough in her races last season.
why has she never done a good time then?
i’d rather go with the evidence on the racetrack than what something might have been doing on the gallops.
Times on the track are not everything unless your a sprinter
Frankel didnt do a good time in last yrs guineas,neither did George Washington does that mean they were not good performances??
but she was given a pacemaker and ridden right out, so surely theres no excuse for not doing a fast time?
Times on the track are not everything unless your a sprinter
Frankel didnt do a good time in last yrs guineas,neither did George Washington does that mean they were not good performances??
You are so wrong about Frankel’s Guineas NY. It was a fantastic time when ground and (more importantly) a strong headwind were taken in to account. One of THE best time performances you’ll ever see.
However, do agree with you that over all time isn’t everything. Just because a horse hasn’t done a good time, does NOT mean it isn’t a good horse. Could be the early pace wasn’t condusive.
But one that has done a good time (going and wind conditions taken in to account) has proven it is a good horse.
Agree with El Gran Senor (what a Guineas EGS won!) Lyric Of Light is far better value than Maybe. So too is Moonstone Magic in that ground. Discourse will probably drift to a backable price too now she is "second string". Maybe deserves to be favourite (has the best chance of winning) but shouldn’t be as much of a gap between them as the betting suggests.
Value Is EverythingJim Bolger rarely sends one over for the a Guineas at Newmarket for the day out. In recent years he’s sent Gile Na Greine, Cuis Ghaire, Gan Amhras, Saoirse Abu, Lush Lashes, New Approach and Finsceal Beo. Only Lush Lashes was unplaced from the above horses and she went on to prove herself as a very high class filly. My point is when he sends one over they’re usually fitter than most and ready to rock and roll. His runner on Sunday, Alla Speranza, is also proven with cut in the ground and I think there’s worse 66/1 shots.
aye, thats right, frankel’s guineas win was an extraordinary time on the clock, if you compared other times on the card (didn’t look bad today in his gallop either
)lot of confidence behind this diala apparently but i’ll stick with lyric of light. convinced she was the real champion 2 year old filly of last year and the times on the clock back that up.
Discourse
E/W for me.
Really like the attitude of this beast and it has a good turn of foot.
Zip
Narrowly missed out in the 2000 Guineas with French Fifteen and Hermival, so I’m hoping for a little more luck and a few more quid by backing the Godolphin duo.
From an operation that knows how to produce fillies for this occasion, they are both unbeaten with decent course form, and I consider it a small bonus they are drawn next to other decent contenders – La Collina (8), Maybe (9), Lyric Of Light (10), Discourse (10).
I’m like you Bosranic, I narrowly missed out on the 2000Gns with Boomerang Bob (by 12 places
).So who am I going to put my curse on today…..it’s Discourse at 11s. Abandon ship all that have bet him now that I have put the mark of Cain on him.
A truly unfathomable race. Mohammed Al Zarooni has stated that both his fillies want top of the ground, so that is fair enough warning for me. Maybe was the top 2yo and has form on all types of going, whether anything can improve past her this early in the season is questionable as Steve Mellish said she took the eye most of all the O’Brien Guineas contenders Camelot included. Moonstone Magic has made huge strides in short time and must enter calculations but dead ground is not like soft or heavy so it may not present as much advantage to her. Mashoora has solid form and the French have a much better record in the 1000 than the 2000.
Maybe is a worthy favourite but I haven’t got any real fancy for the race.
A truly unfathomable race. Mohammed Al Zarooni has stated that both his fillies want top of the ground, so that is fair enough warning for me. Maybe was the top 2yo and has form on all types of going, whether anything can improve past her this early in the season is questionable as Steve Mellish said she took the eye most of all the O’Brien Guineas contenders Camelot included. Moonstone Magic has made huge strides in short time and must enter calculations but dead ground is not like soft or heavy so it may not present as much advantage to her. Mashoora has solid form and the French have a much better record in the 1000 than the 2000.
Maybe is a worthy favourite but I haven’t got any real fancy for the race.
Hello again my old friend, lets hope we fair better than yesterday’s Guineas version.
To be fair, I don’t think Al Zaroomi has said they want top of the ground, more that he doesn’t know how they will fair on softer than they have raced on…..
"I can’t say yes and I can’t say no whether they can handle the ground. When Lyric of Light won her maiden the ground was on the softish side, although that still didn’t tell me whether she needs it like that. I hope she goes on it but with Discourse I cannot tell"
It’s a risk but if Discourse handles it she must have a cracking chance, particularly as she probably needs more than a mile now, the soft ground should help her get home better than some. I would imagine her prime aim is the Oaks, but I’m taking my chance.
I’ve also stuck a couple of bob e/w way on Starscope at 33s. She won her maiden over 7f really well as a 2yr old, that was after missing the break and running green into the bargain. Her only other race was in the Nell Gwyn a couple of weeks back. She was out the back, and although finishing only 4th, she was running on better than anything at the death. She was beaten less than 1 length, again over 7f. I think the extra distance is what she is crying out for. She should not be 33-1.
Best of luck
I backed starscope on her maiden win (aftertiming maybe, but so rarely do i back a winner, let alone one at a decent price, that i’ll take any crumb of comfort
)but it’s slightly worrying that they put her in headgear. can anyone remember the last horse to win a classic wearing blinkers?? could be a good quiz question. I seem to remember secreteriat winning the belmont by 30 lengths, but that was in america.
Discourse and lyric of light look very similar to me, two big fillies by street cry. interesting that discourse was always considered the better of the two but now is the number two choice, I wonder if she’s not been working well at home.
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