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Do any forum members have an opinion as to whether Natagora will stay a mile? My own feeling is that she probably will but her pedigree, in terms of her sire, does seem a little hard to weigh up.
Do any forum members have an opinion as to whether Natagora will stay a mile? My own feeling is that she probably will but her pedigree, in terms of her sire, does seem a little hard to weigh up.
I very much doubt it, as she looked an out and out sprinter in the Cheveley Park. I would go as far as to say she has little chance of staying 7 Furlongs.
Zarkava aside, she was the filly that impressed me most, and hope connections go straight down the sprinting route.
I think 8/1 and 14/1 respectively about Listen and Proviso looks decent antepost value for the 1000 Guineas at the moment.
I like Soairse Abu for the 1000 guineas she was absolutely top class on gd-fm at the summer (which Id say shes bred for), beating the colts in the phoenix stakes and didnt really impress on softer going, backed her last year and think if newmarket comes up gd-fm then she could be worth another bet, I also like spacious who has just atracted that gamble, but again for gd-fm.
The race looks as open as the betting suggests at this stage. Savethisdanceforme improved markedly for the step up to 1m on her last 2 starts last year and was really impressive when winning a listed race 9 lengths on her final outing. That form still leaves her with something to find against the likes of Listen and Proviso and I do think last year’s 2yo fillies have the potential to be as good as we have had since Russian Rhythm’s Guineas. On pedigree Natagora should stay 1m whilst her physique suggests she should train on. The form of the Chevely Park looks very good so she has to be very much a contender.
I couldn’t have Saoirse Abu at any price for a classic. I thought she was readily put in her place at Ascot and I can’t see why she should be able to improve on that. Her tariner seems to hold Lush Lashes in high regard but she is a dreadful price on what she has actually achieved to date.
Fact : pedigrees are a guarantee for absolutely nothing. Look at the horse’s running style, or in this case filly’s.
Far too speedy for a mile, me thinks.
10% of a horse’s ability can be judged by their pedigree.
How much speed could be expected early on in the 1,000 Guineas? Natagora could sneak away with it. The connections may play it safe and try the Pouliches instead.
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I do think last year’s 2yo fillies have the potential to be as good as we have had since Russian Rhythm’s Guineas.
Goodness was that a 1000 Guineas! Russian Rhythm, Six Perfections, Intercontinental with Soviet Song right behind her. Mind you the order of these four might have been very different: Soviet Song may have been second to Six Perfections if she’d had got any sort of training in beforehand (she blew up horribly when looking poised to win a furlong out) and Six Perfections would have won if she’d had any luck in running.
Coming down to earth for next year’s… I disagree that there is anything like such strength in depth as in Russian Rhythm’s year. Soairse Abu will struggle to maintain her advantage this year, even if she’s trained on. The O’Brien fillies look below standard for once. Godolphin are a busted flush as far as English classics are concerned these days. Brutally, Natagora will win in a canter if she gets to the race, and stays – which I believe she will.
Brutally, Natagora will win in a canter if she gets to the race, and stays – which I believe she will.
Given that she didn’t win a single race last year "in a canter" it’s hard to see her winning a Guineas in such style.
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Given that she didn’t win a single race last year "in a canter" it’s hard to see her winning a Guineas in such style.
See Longchamp 14th June. Otherwise, point taken! Hyperbole aside, in terms of scope she looked to have more to offer than her rivals before the Cheveley Park. She won that race with plenty more in hand than the bare margin suggests. She’s battle-hardened and clearly doesn’t like losing. Her jockey has doubts about her stamina, though her trainer hasn’t; but just as she’s unlikely given her running style to be ridden for one sudden burst of speed, so she’s unlikely to lose through overdone French waiting tactics.
And, in honesty, the opposition doesn’t look strong.
10% of a horse’s ability can be judged by their pedigree.
How much speed could be expected early on in the 1,000 Guineas? Natagora could sneak away with it. The connections may play it safe and try the Pouliches instead.
Where did you come up with that percentage?!
You consider the pedigree of a horse to determine more of the eventual ability of that horse? How much? More than a majority? 75%?
My own time rating, on a 0 – 140 scale, for her Cheveley Park win was 110 which I’d consider to be fairly useful for a 2YO filly and would be enough to have made her competitive, if not the winner, of some recent Guineas. My figure for Finsceal Beo last year was, for example, 118.
On the pedigree side, though, her sire, who was a decent sprinter in Japan, seems to have a middle-distance pedigree and the dam’s side also suggests the potential to stay a mile. In terms of stamina considerations I often pay close attention to the dam’s side although I’ve no factual basis for doing so and for all I know this could be a case of barking up the wrong tree. Against all that, there is her style of racing, which has been very speedy. It’s interesting to see a polarisation of views here, which also seems to exist between trainer and jockey of the filly – time will tell!
On a slightly different tack, I see that Ouija Board, for whom I have a particularly soft spot, has had a colt foal by Kingmambo and now visits Manduro – a marriage made in heaven?
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