- This topic has 45 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 11 months ago by
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1)2:45 Newbury – DENMAN at 1.21 = 1st
2)9:20 Wolverhampton – BASALT at 1.76 = 1st
3) 3:50 Plumpton – SERHAAPHIM at 1.88 = 1st
4) 1:30 Folkestone – AUX LE BAHNN at 1.96 = 2nd
5) 3:50 Musselburgh – HALLA SAN at 1.88 = 1st
6) 6:50 Kempton – DANETIME LORD at 2.0 = 2ndRunning Profit/Loss = -0.73 points
7) 3:50 Southwell – LOUISIADE at 1.96
Very poor thread which does no credit to either Zoso or the now-departed Triple Crown. I’ve deleted the ‘non-racing’ elements of the thread but left the rest as they may be of interest.
Now, Zoso – having seen you react with gusto to any attempts at critical analysis of your method I’ll proceed with trepidation, mainly on the basis that most posters on the forum who post in the ‘Systems’ or ‘Lays and Plays’ sections usually appreciate well meaning advice and comment (such as that offered by the very knowledgable Non Vintage). I suspect from having monitored your posts since you’ve joined that you’d do well to listen to such comment occasionally.
Anyway –
Quote from Non Vintage’s post –
Zoso wrote:
The lays are to level stakes. They are all layed to win 1 point.Thanks Zoso. I worked that out from your figures. That’s not level stakes though. You are risking different amounts on each horse and are varying this directly according to the price they are trading at, rather than your own assessment of how strongly you feel they might be beaten.
Quote from Zoso –
I know exactly what I am doing but thanks for the advice. I am looking to win 1 point from each bet by laying horses that I believe are underpriced. As they are all odds on shots the maximum risk is 1 point from any lay (counting 2.0 as odds on although 2.0 is neither odds on nor odds against). The risk from each bet is always 1 point or lower, generally speaking it will be between 1/2point and 1 point risk although every once in a blue moon a horse trading at 1.21 will come along that I want to take a stand against.I feel compelled to point out that Non Vintage is entirely correct. If, as you state, you are attempting to win 1 point from each bet then your risk from each bet will vary, according to the price you lay that 1 point at. Your stake on each result therfore varies (i.e you are risking varying amounts each time). Your profit remains constant (1 pt per race) but your stake (i.e. the amount your risk) varies. Your system is NOT based on level stakes. It is based on a fixed return.
You may indeed know what you are doing, as you somewhat brusquely point out, but you’re not articulating it very well.
1)2:45 Newbury – DENMAN at 1.21 = 1st
2)9:20 Wolverhampton – BASALT at 1.76 = 1st
3) 3:50 Plumpton – SERHAAPHIM at 1.88 = 1st
4) 1:30 Folkestone – AUX LE BAHNN at 1.96 = 2nd
5) 3:50 Musselburgh – HALLA SAN at 1.88 = 1st
6) 6:50 Kempton – DANETIME LORD at 2.0 = 2nd
7) 3:50 Southwell – LOUISIADE at 1.96 = 1stRunning profit/loss = -1.69 points
8.) 2:15 Lingfield – BOY ON A SWING @ 1.52
1)2:45 Newbury – DENMAN at 1.21 = 1st
2)9:20 Wolverhampton – BASALT at 1.76 = 1st
3) 3:50 Plumpton – SERHAAPHIM at 1.88 = 1st
4) 1:30 Folkestone – AUX LE BAHNN at 1.96 = 2nd
5) 3:50 Musselburgh – HALLA SAN at 1.88 = 1st
6) 6:50 Kempton – DANETIME LORD at 2.0 = 2nd
7) 3:50 Southwell – LOUISIADE at 1.96 = 1st
8.) 2:15 Lingfield – BOY ON A SWING @ 1.52 = 4thRunning profit/loss = -0.69 points
1)2:45 Newbury – DENMAN at 1.21 = 1st
2)9:20 Wolverhampton – BASALT at 1.76 = 1st
3) 3:50 Plumpton – SERHAAPHIM at 1.88 = 1st
4) 1:30 Folkestone – AUX LE BAHNN at 1.96 = 2nd
5) 3:50 Musselburgh – HALLA SAN at 1.88 = 1st
6) 6:50 Kempton – DANETIME LORD at 2.0 = 2nd
7) 3:50 Southwell – LOUISIADE at 1.96 = 1st
8.) 2:15 Lingfield – BOY ON A SWING at 1.52 = 4thRunning profit/loss = -0.69 points
9) 3:10 Sandown – LE DUC at 1.64
1)2:45 Newbury – DENMAN at 1.21 = 1st
2)9:20 Wolverhampton – BASALT at 1.76 = 1st
3) 3:50 Plumpton – SERHAAPHIM at 1.88 = 1st
4) 1:30 Folkestone – AUX LE BAHNN at 1.96 = 2nd
5) 3:50 Musselburgh – HALLA SAN at 1.88 = 1st
6) 6:50 Kempton – DANETIME LORD at 2.0 = 2nd
7) 3:50 Southwell – LOUISIADE at 1.96 = 1st
8.) 2:15 Lingfield – BOY ON A SWING at 1.52 = 4th
9) 3:10 Sandown – LE DUC at 1.64 = 1stRunning profit/loss = -1.33 points
One lay to go and a loss is guaranteed from this cut of 10 odds on lays (including 2.0
). Worst case scenario is a loss of 2.33 points, best case scenario is a loss of 0.33 points.Either way Im nobodys cash cow, and I will be forced to make another 10 odds on lays just to prove this fact after a bad run of lays.
Six out of nine lays have won…and of the three losers, one of them wasn’t odds-on anyway.
They are odds on lays. Betting is about profit not strike rate. If you think being 1.33 points down after 9 lays is some kind of disaster then you most likely dont understand betting. As I said its been a bad run, but disaster area? Not here chap.
You appear to be obsessed that I lose so you can laugh at me, you demand that I dont include the 2.0 horse even though I stated the maximum risk was 1 point from any lay,
I tell you what Sam instead of acting in such an immature way, why dont you put up your own 10 odds on lays and I can see how you do. Put up 10 e/w bets as well so I can properly judge you. Talk is cheap and actions speak louder than words.
Zoso,
What you playing at man? Why didn’t you lay Thisthatandtother at 1/8 – you could have finished up in profit and resigned with great credit
Mike
ps: What happened to TC anyone. Why is he now departed?
I actually did lay Thisthatandtother believe it or not, but I wanted the last lay of the 10 to be a definite loser, and my lay of Thisthatandtother was more hopeful than expectant.
Thisthatandtother was a potential bounce horse, any horse on its bounce run priced at 1.15 is absolutely begging me to lay it, Paul Nicholls or not.
ps: What happened to TC anyone. Why is he now departed?
He got banned because he Pm’d me asking me to join his forum on the first day I posted.
Did I grass him up = No I did not, didnt even mention it to anyone.
The young lad came on my thread and told everyone that he had invited me by PM to join his forum and that he would like to retract the statement in his failed attempt to ridicule me, he actually grassed himself up which sounds just about right judging by his intelligence. A most unsavoury individual in my brief dealings with him and I for one am glad he has been banned.
). Worst case scenario is a loss of 2.33 points, best case scenario is a loss of 0.33 points.
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