“Are the Greens now a factor here?”
According to the bookmakers, yes.
Only three firms have priced up the contest so far. The best prices are 6/4 Green, 13/8 Reform, 2/1 Labour.
Galloway had said he would stand only if Burnham was the Labour candidate, so presumably he is out of the running now.
If Burnham was the candidate, I doubt the betting would be the same. Labour would probably have been a shade of odds on.
If Labour does lose this by-election, Starmer will inevitably face questions about why he blocked a high profile candidate with a strong local following and also be open to accusations of putting himself before the party.