Not since 2017 has the favourite won the 2000 Guineas. Could that change this year as Shadow of Light attempts to give his trainer Charlie Appelby a second successive win in this classic?
It was Notable Speech that won this race last year at odds of 16/1. The winner did not race as a two-year-old but had won both of his races. When trying to win the classic, it wasn’t just a big step up in class for the contender but also the first time he had run on turf. All three of his runs had been on the all-weather track at Kempton.
History can sometimes repeat itself and that might just happen this year. Opera Ballo is another Appelby contender and is following the same route as Notable Speech. He didn’t run as a two-year-old and his two outings this year have been at Kempton. Those two races were won by a combined distance of twelve-and-a-half lengths but Opera Ballo is yet to run at a higher level than Class 3 and is 12/1 to win the 2000 Guineas.
Ahead of him in the market is another runner trained by Charlie Appelby. Shadow of Light is second in the market at odds of 13/2. Of his five races, four have been won and his only loss came over six furlongs in the Gimcrack Stakes. It’s gone better for Shadow of Light since with two big Group 1 wins at Newmarket. Success came in both the Juddmonte Middle Park and Dewhurst Stakes.
Success in the Dewhurst Stakes can be a good omen. Both Churchill in 2016 and Chaldean two years ago won that race and then went on the following year to win the 2000 Guineas.
Ruling Court is another runner for Appelby and has already enjoyed classic success this year. The three-year-old won the 2000 Guineas in Meydan. Could he transfer his Middle East form to Newmarket? His only win in the UK was in class 4.
The current favourite at 9/2 is Aidan O’Brien’s Twain, based on what online horse betting sites in the UK offer us now. 2024 saw the Irish trainer arrive in Newmarket with the odds on favourite for this race. City of Troy was considered a star of the future but ran a stinker and finished ninth. A month later, that early promise was fulfilled when he bounced back to win the Epsom Derby.
O’Brien has won this race a record ten times but not since 2019. Twain didn’t make his racecourse debut until last October. After winning on debut at Leopardstown, O’Brien knew time was running out with the season nearly over. Just eight days after that debut win, Twain went across the Channel to Saint-Cloud and won the Group 1 Criterium International.
The winner has been described as “special” by his trainer but there are questions that need to be answered. His two victories in October were achieved on soft and heavy ground. Unless we get some downpours in late April and early May, the ground is unlikely to be in that state. How will Twain perform on better ground?
It was a busy but successful October for O’Brien with Expanded also making his debut. He only won his first race by a neck but did make a slow start as many debutants do. Like Twain, he was given a tough race just a week later. He ran in the Dewhurst Stakes and finished just a neck behind Shadow of Light. He’s 7/1 to win the 2000 Guineas and looks a horse that has plenty of improvement to come.
Another fancied O’Brien runner is The Lion in Winter. His debut came last July and he won at the Curragh. The following month saw him successful at York in the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stake and behind him in third was Ruling Court. The Lion in Winter looks good each-way value at odds of 16/1.
Another strong contender is Cosmic Year at 8/1. Only once did he run as a two-year-old but that did produce a win at Sandown, though only in class 4 seven months ago. That win came on good ground and if training on, the Harry Charlton trained runner could be an interesting prospect at Newmarket.
The 2000 Guineas is not an easy race in which to pick the winner. It’s difficult to judge just how much a horse can improve at this early stage of their three-year-old career. Twain has a lot of questions to answer but ruling out any Aidan O’Brien runner is never to be recommended. Expanded looks an interesting contender as does Shadow of Light.