18+. T&Cs apply. Gamble responsibly
Enceladus brings potential into the 250th St Leger, but Derby winner Christmas Day has the class, stamina and form to land his second Classic of the season. In this 1xBet.ie review, Emmet Kennedy analyses the favourites for one of the key events at the festival in Doncaster.
This is the 250th running of the world’s oldest Classic, the St Leger at Doncaster, and the betting in the build-up has been fascinating, with Joseph O’Brien’s Enceladus cut to favourite by some bookmakers.
America also celebrates its 250th anniversary this year, and there is a philosophy among some legendary American horse racing bettors and handicappers that you should not take short odds about a horse who has to do something for the first time.
Enceladus has to do two things: prove he can win over 1m6f and prove he is capable of winning a Group 1.
He is certainly bred to be a good horse. A son of the brilliant Sea The Stars, he is out of an American Grade 2 winner over 1m½f and arrives on the back of a career-best performance when winning the same race Jan Brueghel used as his final preparation before landing the 2024 St Leger.
His trainer also knows exactly what it takes to win this Classic. Joseph O’Brien rode Leading Light to victory in 2013 before training Galileo Chrome to win in 2020. Billy Loughnane has been booked, which is another obvious positive.
Enceladus has the potential to develop into a top-class horse, but his price looks short enough for a colt whose highest-level victory so far has come in a Group 3.
Christmas Day brings the Classic form
Christmas Day is the class horse in the race.
It is 39 years since Reference Point completed the Derby-St Leger double in 1987, but Christmas Day’s sire Camelot came agonisingly close to winning the Triple Crown when beaten in this race in 2012.
Very few Derby winners are now asked to contest the St Leger. It is testament to Coolmore’s commitment to breeding elite middle-distance horses that they are prepared to run an Epsom Derby winner in a race increasingly associated with producing future National Hunt stallions. Camelot is the obvious recent exception to that perception.
More importantly from a betting perspective, Christmas Day has the strongest form in the field.
His Derby victory has subsequently produced several high-class performances. Maltese Cross, Item and Benvenuto Cellini have all developed into top-class performers, while Ancient Egypt and Pierre Bonnard have also placed at Group 1 level.
Christmas Day’s subsequent second to Benvenuto Cellini in the Irish Derby also reads well. The winner went on to finish within two lengths of Kalpana and Calandagan, two of the best middle-distance horses in the world, in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
The Irish Derby itself was run at a strong gallop, with the performance supported by strong figures on both Racing Post TopSpeed and Timeform’s time ratings.
Christmas Day’s stablemate Pierre Bonnard finished narrowly behind him at the Curragh before reversing that form when they finished second and third behind Maltese Cross in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. The William Haggas-trained winner is now second favourite for the Arc, so taking a positive view of the form looks entirely reasonable.
There are also reasons to believe Christmas Day can reverse the York form with Pierre Bonnard.
He was conceding a 5lb Group 1 penalty and paddock observers noted that he was carrying condition and shaped as though the run would bring him forward considerably. Aidan O’Brien expressed a similar view when we visited Ballydoyle last week, describing Christmas Day as a horse with plenty of class who stays strongly.
That combination could make him extremely difficult to beat at Doncaster.
There may also be a legitimate question over whether York shows Christmas Day at his best. Before winning the Derby, he finished third behind subsequent Juddmonte International winner Item in the Dante, when he was also beaten by stablemate Action. Pierre Bonnard then finished ahead of him in the Great Voltigeur.
That should not detract from Pierre Bonnard, who is a Group 1 winner over 1m2f as a juvenile and has strong stamina credentials himself. He is a half-brother to Crepe Suzette, who was placed over 1m6f in a Group 2 at this meeting last year.
Do not be surprised if the Ballydoyle colts end up fighting out the finish.
But back at level weights, stepping up to 1m6f and returning to a galloping track, Christmas Day has strong credentials to become the first Derby winner since Reference Point to follow up in the St Leger.
13:45 Doncaster – Champagne Stakes (Group 2), 7f
Desert Castle is obviously a potentially very good horse. A son of Frankel, he is a full-brother to Group 1 winner Desert Castle and the Group 1-placed With The Moonlight.
He won his Newmarket maiden easily, travelling strongly before going clear despite still looking inexperienced. Two of his furlongs dipped below 11 seconds, while Billy Loughnane suggested afterwards that there was plenty more improvement to come and that he would appreciate a stronger pace.
But what did he actually achieve?
The time was 3.11sec slower than standard, while those who have subsequently run from behind him have been beaten. He now faces similarly well-bred, lightly raced juveniles who have achieved more on both form and ratings.
There is also an interesting trainer angle. Charlie Appleby hasn’t won the Champagne Stakes since 2015 and has saddled four beaten runners since, including an odds-on favourite.
Sergei Diaghilev represents last year’s winning trainer Aidan O’Brien and arrives on the back of a career-best effort in a Listed race over a mile at Gowran Park. That contest was won by subsequent Group 1 winner Thesecretadversary last year, while the form of Sergei Diaghilev’s victory has already received a boost, with fourth-placed Sea Of Rain subsequently winning a Group 3. The slight concern is the drop back from a mile to seven furlongs.
Breacher shaped like the best horse in the race to my eye when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes. That was just his second start and he can be expected to improve again, although I’m surprised connections haven’t stepped him up to a mile.
That brings me to Gentle Hurricane.
He won on debut before taking a significant step forward when second to Haffner in the Acomb Stakes at York, a huge effort considering he was the only once-raced horse in the field.
The form has substance. Haffner is heading for the Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes, while Gentle Hurricane finished ahead of Alfred Wallace, who subsequently won the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown with Breacher behind.
Gentle Hurricane was well backed at York and represents an Andrew Balding stable that has won the Acomb with subsequent Group 1 winners Gewan and Chaldean. With only two starts behind him, there should be more improvement to come.
Desert Castle could be anything, but at the prices you’re being asked to pay for potential. Gentle Hurricane has already achieved more and can take another significant step forward.
Selection: Gentle Hurricane
14:55 Doncaster – Park Stakes (Group 2), 7f
More Thunder has an outstanding chance to return to the winner’s enclosure on his first start over seven furlongs in Britain since winning the Hungerford Stakes in August last year.
His subsequent form is considerably stronger than anything his rivals bring to the table.
Runner-up finishes behind Notable Speech in the Lockinge and Ten Bob Tony in the Queen Anne have been boosted by their subsequent exploits in Group 1 company, while I would argue that More Thunder’s fifth in the Group 1 Aga Khan Studs Prix Jacques le Marois represents form on another level to this field.
Never So Brave would be interesting if bouncing back to his best. A Group 1 winner over seven furlongs last season, he also has the advantage of not having to carry a Group 1 penalty.
Even so, the numbers point firmly towards More Thunder. He is 4lb clear of the field on Timeform ratings and 5lb clear on official ratings.
Returning to seven furlongs on a track that should play to his strengths, this looks an excellent opportunity for William Haggas’s runner to get back to winning ways.
Selection: More Thunder
Saturday’s Lucky 31
- 13:45 Doncaster – Gentle Hurricane
- 14:55 Doncaster – More Thunder
- 3:35 Doncaster – Christmas Day
1xBet.ie Verdict
Enceladus is progressive and could develop into a top-class colt, but his price asks bettors to take his stamina and Group 1 ability on trust.
With Christmas Day, we already know the class is there. His Derby form has been repeatedly franked, his Irish Derby second reads strongly and there are legitimate reasons to believe his Great Voltigeur run can be upgraded.
Best Bet: Christmas Day
Watch the most exciting 1xBet.ie horse races at the Doncaster Festival and root for your favourites. Still, remember to play responsibly.
The analytical piece was prepared by Emmet Kennedy — Presenter, Producer, and Owner of The Final Furlong Podcast, Broadcaster with TalkSPORT, and Broadcast Consultant — with the support of 1xBet.ie.
TERMINUS PLATFORM IRELAND LIMITED DOES NOT SPONSOR ANY OF THE EVENTS ABOVE AND HAS NO PARTNERSHIP WITH ASSOCIATED SPORTS LEAGUES AND/OR ASSOCIATIONS.