Saturday, the 3rd of May, will see the 151st renewal of America’s greatest horse race. The Kentucky Derby is obviously a huge betting event, but it’s a great spectacle for neutrals who like to see tactical horse races. The first portion of the two miles sees a mix of closers, stalkers, and pacesetters trying to get into position before what is often a chaotic finish.
Like the Melbourne Cup, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Grand National, there’s plenty of buzz leading up to race day for the Run for the Roses. And 2025 is no different. Here’s what’s happening in the betting markets and other stories surrounding America’s biggest race:
Journalism is a worthy favourite
If you learn how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, you’ll know that getting tactics right on the day is paramount, and that fact has scuppered the chances of several favourites in recent years. Journalism has some attractive plus points, including showing a lot of mettle in a thrilling Santa Anita Derby (a good race indicator for the Kentucky Derby) win recently. As with most horses heading to Louisville, there are questions over how Journalism handles a much larger field of rivals, yet all the signs are there that he can. Nothing’s certain, but he looks the right choice as the betting market leader.
Sovereignty in contention
There’s a lot to like about Bill Mott’s Sovereignty, a horse who burst onto the scene with a maiden victory at Churchill Downs last October. That put him to the fore in the ante-post betting markets over the winter, and he backed up that confidence by opening the season with a win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. There was little shame in his second-place finish in the Florida Derby, either, as it was more of a tactical hiccup than any sense of being outclassed by eventual winner Tappan Street. He definitely has the stamina for the Derby, and he has proven he can do it under the Twin Spires. Plenty of interest at 7/1.
The Japanese Contingent
Most bookies have Luxor Café as third-favourite for the Derby. The Japanese-trained horse is unbeaten in his native country, and he will head to Louisville with punters aware that we almost had the first-ever Japanese winner last year (Forever Young was beaten by a nose in dramatic fashion). You can get a price of about 10/1 for Luxor Café, or you can maybe look for place/each-way value from fellow Japanese runner Admire Daytona at 40/1. It feels likely that a Japanese runner will win the Derby sooner rather than later, although it might not be this year.
Baffert’s Horses Will Appeal
Bob Baffert will make his long-awaited return to the Kentucky Derby after a three-year suspension. The six-time winning trainer will bring two horses, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. They are night and day in terms of what they need. Citizen Bull needs to find his old Breeders’ Cup-winning form, whereas Rodriguez needs to continue his clear progression. Both horses can be backed around 20/1, and while we wouldn’t be fully confident in picking one over another, Baffert could easily pull a rabbit out of the hat with a 7th Kentucky Derby victory.
The forgotten man
As mentioned, there’s a lot of news and betting chatter in the lead-up to the race, but one horse that feels a little overlooked is Sandman. Trained by Mark Casse, he’s been up and down over his eight starts, but it was his final Derby qualifier, the Arkansas Derby, where his real potential seemed to shine through. It highlighted his suitability for the extra distance of the Derby, although he will need a little luck to get into position to move up into 5th gear through a large field. You can get 12/1 for Sandman, who looks like having a real chance.