If you’ve had some experience in horse racing betting already, then we’re pretty sure you’ve already heard about the term “false favourite.” It’s quite a common term, especially in talks about strategies and systems. With that in mind, determining a false favourite is essential if you want to be profitable in horse racing betting.
That said, if you’re a bettor who is always betting on favourites, you can say that false favourites are your worst enemy. But then again, constantly betting on the favourites is a losing strategy anyway, and we trust that you know that already but the point still stands. So what exactly is a false favourite, and how do you identify them?
What is a False Favourite?
Before we talk about the false favourite, you should know that there are two types of favourites in a race. The first one is the morning line. The morning line favourite is what the track handicapper thinks will win the race, and then they will put odds on it depending on its talent.
The next one is the post-time favourite. Essentially, this is what the public thinks will win the race. However, you should note that many times, both the morning line favourite and the post-time favourite are the same horse.
So which of them is the false favourite? Well, it’s when you think the horse will not win the race. However, you should know that handicappers and the public sometimes get their favourites wrong.
On the defence of the handicapper, they have to handicap multiple races, and it’s even impressive how they are right most of the time. However, in public, it’s a result of lazy handicapping. So how do you identify them?
Low Strike Rate
Looking at the strike is usually a surefire way of identifying false favourites. This statistic usually indicates a horse’s racing patterns, recovery rate, and quality as a horse. With this information, you’ll have an insight into the horse’s chance of winning the race. For those looking to boost their chances of hitting a huge win, there are many great bonus offers to take advantage of, check out bonus bez depozytu net to find some of the best no-deposit bonuses available and maximize your potential winnings in progressive jackpot games.
If you see that the horse is presented as the favourite, but you see that it has a low strike rate, you can automatically assume that it’s a false favourite. This is not even to mention that horses with a lot strike rate usually have higher odds in an attempt for the bookmakers to get action on the horse still.
Too Much Hype
The power of the media is not a joke. Most of the time, it can influence the masses severely, dictating line shifting.
A good example is when a known horse has a strong win in its most recent race. The media will then overhype this train by saying that the horse has an untapped potential that might get released at the upcoming event.
Some personalities will then eat this information in horse racing betting, which many people follow, and then the public does the rest. If you think that the hype is unreasonable and the upcoming performance of the horse is overestimated, then you may have had a false favourite in your hands.
Last Start Winners
One of the biggest influencers in public is the last-start winners. For the public, a last-start winner is automatically a type of horse that can win in any grade. But the truth is far from the truth. There are a lot of factors that you should consider before saying that the horse will win.
In this case, maybe the odds favour that particular horse, which helped the horse win the race even though it started last.
Ignoring Jockeys
Jockeys also have a hand in the victory of a race. This means you shouldn’t only look at the horses when identifying false favourites.
If the jockey has never experienced the race itself or its pairing with the horse is a new one, that is most likely a red flag, even if the horse has all the factors in winning. That said, you should also look at the jockey’s strike rate. If his strike rate is low, it can have a big impact on the horse’s strike rate as well.
Trainer Ability
The horse and the jockey are the ones racing, so of course, it’s up to them to win the race. However, they wouldn’t be able to do their best, especially the horse, without their trainers. But what are their effects on favourites? If the favourite has a trainer with a 6% or less win rate, then it should be a red flag.
Final Words
Even though false favourites are bets you shouldn’t make, they can also be good. You can tailor your bets around them, especially when looking to lay against runners. Identifying false favourites is essential if you want to profit from horse racing betting.