It has been tough going since the return after the COVID break with our worst run for a while although we are still ahead for the year after a strong opening to 2020. I have a few for tomorrow so I am hoping a couple of them (at least) can turn the recent tide.
First up, at York in the 2.40. ELARQAM (9/4 generally) looks a good bet to see off Telecaster. Elarqam struggled over a longer trip last time. Back to what would appear to be his optimum distance he holds a fine chance, given he’s been relatively reliable over the trip on 6 of his last 7 runs over it. His only blip was when travelling to Ireland last September. That run aside, were he to reproduce his normal level of form Telecaster would have to both run to his very best and find a few lbs in addition. Elarwqam’s York form is very strong, with two wins, a third in the Juddmonte international and a good third in this race two years ago, since when he’s improved markedly.
At Ascot it pains me to go against Enable but the six year old mare may find the three Aidan O’Brien runners a handful and the four year old JAPAN (100/30 William Hill, Boylesports) will be no pushover. If she runs to her best then he’ll have it all on but it is no secret the Arc is her key target and it looks certain the race will be dominated, pace-wise, by Japan’s stablemates and I think a muddling race and an upset is possible. While she is the likeliest winner, Japan looks the bet at the odds as he may well come on again on this, his third run of the campaign.
For the final bet it’s up to Doncaster where BAY WATCH (6/1 bet365) looks the bet. In fine form with two wins from two runs since his winter break he appears to still be on a progressively upward curve with the handicapper not punishing him unduly, thanks you would think to his late run style which results in narrow margin successes. Such a style relies on a little luck and with another 4lb rise he is no certainty by any means but he is one to stay on side with for now I think and the 6/1 looks generous enough for an in-form sprinter still posting improving efforts race to race.