During his career Hello Youmzain has yet to win two races on the trot, winning every second outing so far, but I think he can put that behind him tomorrow by taking the July Cup at Newmarket.
His form is solid, his recent win in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot matching his win in the Sprint Cup at Haydock last season. He may have been inconvenienced when forcing the pace on heavy ground in between these two efforts when midfield in the Champions Sprint, again at Ascot.
If he runs up to his form it’ll take improvement from the others to go past him. Most dangerous of the challengers is the probable favourite Golden Horde, who won the Commonwealth Cup last time and who is still unexposed at this level. Three year olds do well enough in this race and he looked good last time, suggesting that he is a top-notcher. That said, this is a stronger line-up and up against a proven group 1 performer with whom he has a few pounds to find I think he is a bit short and I’d rather be on HELLO YOUMZAIN (5/1 William Hill) which looks a big price for a horse with the best form and few question marks.
The Bunbury cup later in the card (Newmarket 4.10) probably contains more than its usual complement of contestants who remain open to further improvement. Chief among these is MUTAMAASIK (11/2 bet365, William Hill) who came into Royal Ascot having won the last four of his five lifetime starts (he was second on his debut). He was beaten two and a quarter lengths that day by tomorrow’s main market rival Motakhayyel but enjoys a 5 lb pull with that rival here. Add into the mix that Mutamaasik was in all likelihood at a slight disadvantage having raced in a centre group that day (finished a convincing first of 10 in his group) then his prospects of reversing the form are good. 11/2 looks a fair price for a horse whose limits are very likely to be unexplored to their full extent.
Hopefully we’ll fare better than last weekend where our one selection, Mogul, was a disappointment in the Derby. I’m afraid he looks like he’s not going to live up to expectations, certainly not my own high hopes for him, but let’s hope one or both tomorrow’s pair can get July back on track for us.