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Once again the National has turned out to be an extremely predictable race. Yes, you get the occasional fluke but generally you are looking for a horse which has only been targeted at this race all year (and nothing else). You do not win a National as an afterthought, hence horses like Quinz, Silver by Nature & What a Friend had no chance.
There’s been a lot of analysis on these pages (far too much) about breeding and all sorts of nonsense – none of that stuff matters. The only thing that counts is that the horse must be targeted for the race since the National is a bruising, exhausting affair and there is too much energy required not to have this as your sole focus for the season. This is borne out with the first 5 home in the race.
This fact and having a good racing weight is all you need to know. As I’ve stated previously my selections were Oscar Time at 50s and State of Play, Arbour Supreme and The Midnight Club at 40s. I had actually a small amount on Ballabriggs at 33s after its Kim Muir victory, but I did not fancy it when the weights came out since it was allocated 4 to 5 pounds more than I expected.
The stats provided on these pages are interesting, but useless if you want to make a profit – if you don’t believe that look at the work Ginger put in and if you would have followed his "verdict" you would have ended up with zero, unless you had Niche Market for 5th place – whoopee.
I’m personally only interested in Cheltenham and Aintree re racing since I go to both festivals on all days and want to have some fun and I hate the flat, hence all my ante post betting is geared towards these 2 events only. Therefore, my betting will start to be made from Nov onwards for next year and I can tell you after this year my on line coffers are well and truly swollen – NB: – first 6 winners on Day 2 of Cheltenham.
Anybody interested in the National for next year – I’ve seen a couple of you make comments about Big Fella Thanks, but I recommend this one at 40s EW with BET 365 for 5 places NB: – the firm I used for my bets this year. The thing you were missing with this animal which gave it no chance this year was its weight. Before last years National it won a race which meant it was not penalised for 2010 and went off favourite, but was for 2011, thus making it 8 pounds worse off with State off Play from 2010 – even though State beat it. The fact that Big Fella was shorter odds blows my mind and makes no sense to me whatsoever – if you fancied Big Fella you obviously did not consider its weight.
However I recommend Big Fella for next year for 2 reasons – firstly Ferdy Murphy stated earlier that his campaign next year should all be geared towards the National and secondly I think the handicapper will relent next year and put it down 5 / 6 pounds. This combined with another year (it will be 10 years old – perfect age) should give it a much better chance of getting home and at 40s a small investment EW for 5 places represents tremendous value.
Ginger in your posts you state "value is everything", I disagree completely, I think having money in the coffers as a result of your selections is everything.
Some great posts on here, but a few of us are missing the point of ante post betting. You get on early to get the value, yes you don’t fully know the ground conditions, however in essence you do since apart from the obvious exceptions (Earth Summit, Red Marauder) it’s always good, or at the very least good to soft. Hence if you pick horses that go on good / good to soft, you’re sorted NB: – in the unlikely event that it’s soft, you can lay them anway, hence no risk!
I had a small "saver" on One Cool Cookie after being on course to watch it in the Becher in November and hence my monies are gone, but even though I’m gutted for connections, to use a pun, from a punting point of view, that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
If you do not have any big odds about your fancies at this stage, your chances of making signicant returns from the race are greatly reduced and in addition, it saves me having to take wads of cash to the course on April 9.
I wouldn’t swap my 50s on Oscar Time and 40s on State of Play, Arbor Supreme and The Midnight Club for anything. Vive le ante post.
Some great points raised and this is the hardest National I’ve ever seen to pick the winner of. Historically it was a piece of cake, pick 3/4 horses weighted between 10 st 4 and 10 st 12 and you had a very high % of winners (which I have). Pre compression of weights there were a significant number of horses ususlly out of the handicap and hence effectively had no chance, however all horses are now running off (or below their current BHB mark) and this will ensure that in future there can be a lot more Mon Mome results.
I can probably make a case for about 30 horses winning (which is ludicrous from a punting point of view) and hence have come down on the side of a well weighted tried and trusted "veteran" i.e. State who is a rock solid EW option, even though I’m fairly sure 1 or 2 will have its legs in a finish NB: – the problem is finding these 1 or 2.
Of the horses mentioned – Arbor Supreme is well weighted, but unreliable, Silver by Nature is 11 pound well in but appears ground dependent and The Midnight Club does not appear well weighted to me after its Bobbyjo exertions and is worse off in the GN in respect to Arbor Supreme and Oscar Time.
Roll Along? why not, if it came back to it’s former glories that would put it in the mix.
Until recently, I’ve always found the National an easy (and usually very profitable) race – however Phil Smith has changed all that with his compression of the weights at the top. Until Mon Mome you could effectively ignore anything above 11 stone and that whittled down the field by a good third. Unfortuneately, those days are over, but weight is still a key factor.
The horse which is well in at the weights in 2011 is State of Play, which has been placed the last 2 years and has 5 pound less (3 pound lower mark) than 2010 when third. I’ve been speaking with quite a few people who fancy Big Fella Thanks even though it was beaten by State of Play last year and is 8 pound worse off – having a numerical background I’m bemused by this, especially since Fella is also much shorter in the betting.
Evan Williams has planned to go straight to the National without a run and at 25s State is outstanding EW value compared to some of the horses who are much shorter in the betting, especially with it having a proven track record (twice). I’ve got a significant amount on at 40s and for the first 5 places.
The big value on the second selection has long gone i.e. Oscar Time. Once I heard Robert Waley-Cohen bought it I piled in at 50s, however I think it also has a great EW chance. If you need reasons for this selection, watch Pricewise’s view on RPTV after the weights were announced and if doesn’t convince you nothing will.
