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Okay. Will check the calendar later – shouldn’t be a problem though.
Hmmmm
plan B is as follows….(having consulted some other wanabee millionaires)
"I think the best option is…
Wolverhampton (evening meeting) on Saturday 4th October
it should be less busy and we can get there in advance of the racing action without being in too much of a hurry."
byefrom
carlisleExcellent – just had a look at the Towcester website and entrance is FREE!!
Shame it’s a week day that may present a problem for some – not me as I’m self employed
Lets leave it until closer to the date to see if there are any more takers before we start making arrangements.
carlisle
I couldn’t agree more I have looked into the use of predictive software and neural networks and because it looks at the whole picture, well as much of the of picture as you can give it, I believe you are correct and this is the way forward.
Let me know when and where and I’ll be there!
whichedge
Sound good to me – I’m from Coventry so just down the road from you carlisle! I too have a vast amount of data, UK races only from about 1995ish it’s complete from 2000 onwards. My programming skills are very limited but my in can write in T-SQL and SQL database skills are sound.
I’m always on the look out for expanding my knowledge and in doing so hopefully expanding other knowledge as well, and software/computer analysis of racing is definitely something that I’m always willing to explore.
Why thank you! I’ve been lurking around for a few weeks now just hadn’t posted any comments!
Artemis,
Thanks for that pointer, I have another book by Nick Mordin, which is an excellent read, the name of the book escapes me at the moment, I also have a couple of other books, more aimed toward the mathematicians and the mathematics behind the predictions but uses horse racing as examples where statistics can be used with artificial neural network to derive an accurate probability of the out come of a race.
I have looked into it, I have a science degree and thought my maths was good but this stuff just blew me away. There are several pieces of free software available that claim to use neural networks to predict outcomes of events (ie races) from statistics, but the amount of data needed puts this route out of the realms of most.
I found the Daily Mail had quiet good odds about 10 years ago, but over the past few years the accuracy has dropped off quiet a bit. To the point where I have stopped using them altogether.
It really depends what you want out of a set of published odds, personally I use 2 sets of odds one that will give me a good guide to what the starting prices WILL be, and one that gives me accurate probabilities of the out come of the race. If that makes sense.
I use the Race Post for what the anticipated SP is going to be and an on line complier for probability odds.
Software to analysis races is a complex subject. I have spent many years looking at different type of software that looks at races from different angles. It seems to me that a statistical angle would be best, as Form Analysis requires to much of a human intuition element, more than I believe can be programmed into a computer.
So if you go down the statistical route, which is better suited to computer analysis, you then have to wonder how it brings all the statistics together in a meaningful way. From the research that I have done this is best accomplished with some type of multi-variance analysis. Which is another term for a very complex equation, that turns a large number of statistics into a probability or some form of rating.
I have found a website that claims to go down this route, but haven’t really explored it much yet.
I’ll report back after I haven’t had a closer look.
carlisle
I have to agree that no one person can take on the betting world, I have been working on it alone for some time now….maybe it’s time for me to look for ‘cohorts’ also.
However the one thing that has stopped me as you quiet rightly point out is not so much the blinkered view or the ego, both of which I can work with or around but it’s the trust, especially if you’ve been working on a project some time to have some pinch your ideas!
