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TOPAZ NOVICE CHASE
(GRADE 1)
This is a very tight contest with a hat full of entries that have live chances in this and I am finding it hard to split at least half the field. I might be worth just going over the entire entries that I feel have the criteria to give a good account in this.
Willie Mullins is double handed in this with Aupcharlie and
BACK IN FOCUS
, out of the two the latter probably stands out on jockey bookings with Ruby choosing him over Aupcharlie. The seven year old has been put in as the 11/8fav for this and on the back of his last two wins he deserves to be short in the market.
This will be his first visit to Leopardstown which in hindsight is not really a negative as his form in heavy conditions goes in his favor. His win in the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novices Chase at Punchestown saw him beat a former Grade 2 winner in Lyreen Legend by a very easy four lengths and there looks more to come.
Next I will move on to Tony Martin’s
BENEFFICIENT
who to be fair looks very over priced at around 25/1. Fourth to Arvika Ligeonnaire on his last start in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase here at Leopardstown when not really landing a blow over the 2m trip, He will be a lot better over this trip and showed this when second in the Grade 2 GPG Novices Chase beaten one and a half lengths by Harry Trooper at Newbury.
His form through Dedigout came in the Grade 1 Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle early this year at Punchestown when tailed off and realistically has a lot to do to turnaround form with Texas Jack in this on paper.
This brings me on to
DEDIGOUT
, Tony Martin’s first string ran as well as expected behind Arvika Ligeonnaire when eleven lengths behind in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase and with Texas Jack back in third by a staggering twenty lengths it is safe to suggest that the form holds up. I do feel that the Drinmore is a positive for this race and I give Dedigout a big shout in this today for the Gigginstown Stud.
Probably the most interesting one in the field is the Dessie Hughes
TOFINO BAY
, he has taken to the bigger obstacles well since diverting over the summer with a formline to date of (121). Davy Russell has ridden the nine year old on all of his three chase starts but has been retained by the Gigginstown stud to ride Dedigout in this, but a worthy jockey change to Barry Geraghty who will be taking the mount for the first time.
This will be his toughest task to date with his only run in Graded company was when finishing runner up in the Grade 3 European Breeders Fund Novices Chase at Cork on his second chase start, he was given a tame handicap mark last time out when winning off 134 and takes a serious hike of 14lb coming into this which is only 4lb higher when a winning 144 hurdler, each way claims if running up to his best.
Back In Focus definitely deserves to be as short as he is, but I do feel there is value in this and
DEDIGOUT
for Gigginstown Stud at 7/2 makes what I feel good value with a possible each way claim with TOFINO BAY who Davy Russell would of ridden, Benefficient could also hold each way claims if running up to his Newbury outing, but overall Dedigout the one for me this afternoon.
DEDIGOUT : 2pt Win @ 7/2 (BOG)
WOODIESDIY.COM CHRISTMAS HURDLE
(GRADE 2)
Last years winner VOLER LA VEDETTE will be taking on ten adversaries this afternoon and this looks a lot tougher this time around. He will have strong contention from the likes of Zaidpour who represents the inform Willie Mullins yard.
Willie Mullins six year old gelding
ZAIDPOUR
looks to of progressed well in 2012, his two runs at the course have resulted in two bridesmaid positions which have seen him losing to First Lieutenant on this card, then to go on to finish runner up to the smart Oscars Well, these races were Grade 1 events so he knows his way around.
Seven campaign runs behind him this year have seen him win 3-7 races to date which included a victory over Voler La Vedette in the Grade 2 John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park back in January. Despite of giving 7lb away in the weights that was a smart performance giving VLV the weight allowance.
His run in the Champion Hurdle when running Hurricane Fly to within two and a half lengths was realistically a distance he would not thrive on over the minimal 2m. VLV and the selection have not met all year until they came head to head in the Grade 1 Hatton Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out, once more the selection came out on top by four lengths with Monksland splitting the pair and So Young a very distant fourth.He will be giving the 7lb weight allowance once more and with 2-0 in favor of the Mullins entry I would be confident enough to suggest that 3-0 is on the cards.
I should be foolish to not consider anything in the race, Noel Meade’s Monksland is still learning the game and the five year old won the Grade 2 Slaney Novice Hurdle on only his second attempt over hurdles, he was sent to Cheltenham and ran creditably when third to Simonsig in the Grade 1 Neptune Property Investment Management Novices Hurdle and the form is working out well, with the fourth Close House winning at Wincanton last weekend, and Simonsig is a class apart so it is looking solid.
After eight months off he returned to win the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal when beating a moderate bunch to be fair, he then took on the selection in the Hatton Hurdle when splitting Zaidpour and VLV and despite making inroads into the leader he always looked well held in the closing stages.
My overview is that I still feel
ZAIDPOUR
can hold both forms through Monksland and Voler La Vedette this aftenoon from their Hatton Hurdle run and meeting off the same weight allowance it is going to be tough for last years winner to reverse the form as it is for Monksland.
ZAIDPOUR : 3pt Win @ 5/4
Sorry for late reply GT, Darlan was impressive but Dodging Bullets ran a cracker aswell and will come on a lot for that run – Long Run was gutsy
What a day indeed, Dynaste ouzes class and Darlan showed his true colors today, but the day goes to Sam Waley-Cohan for an inspirational and a never say die attitude to galvanise Long Run to win the King George and nice bets landed sigurely, snd doubles and trebles – a good Christmas
WILLIAM HILL KING GEORGE V1 CHASE
(GRADE 1)
3M SOFT
There have been questions and rumors if the Nicky Henderson trained seven year old has lost his way, beaten by Synchronised in the Gold Cup and more recently by Silviniaco Conti in the Betfred Chase.
My personal opinion is what a load of twaddle,
LONG RUN
deserves every bit of respect on what he has achieved since joining the Berkshire based trainer in the winter of 2009. His form around Kempton says it all really (112), with his only defeat coming to the hands of probably one of the best chasers to grace our sport in Kauto Star.
Looking back at the Betfred again, he was beaten by Kauto Star last year in the same race but thrives when turning up the one to beat personally.
The opposition this year for me does not have the depth of what I have seen him run against, two we could probably pinpoint for the each way cash are
THE GIANT BOLSTER
and
KAUTO STONE
.
David Bridgwaters seven year old (Former), was beaten by Long Run this year back in February in the Grade 2 Denman Chase, and the defeat was comfortable by just under twelve lengths when in receipt of 4lb, a big ask to reverse the form, but he did get his revenge in the Gold Cup when reversing the form by three parts of a length and I am convinced that on the day Long Run never got his ground, but then the form was reversed again in favor of Long Run in the Betfred by four and a half lengths and trying to confirm the saga and a reverse back around at Kempton is a no go for me.
It would probably be cruel to see Long Run be defeated once more by another Kauto, this time Paul Nicholl’s
KAUTO STONE
, Another French import, he joined Dicheat over the winter months of 2011, and made an impact straight away when sent to Ireland and duly obliged when landing the Grade 2 Ladbroke.com Chase and it looked once more that another Kauto had landed.
Second to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek at Sandown and even the eight lengths defeat was not really relevant over the distance you could see that Ditcheat had another good chaser on their hands. But there has been disappointment since, only seventh in the Ascot Chase, Fell in the Queen Mothers Chase at the first fence, went to Aintree to rekindle some pride and again showed nothing when seventh to Finian’s Rainbow in the Melling chase.
The break now looks like Paul Nicholl’s has ironed out the problems as his first start of the season saw him go to Ireland once more and land the JNWine.com Champion Chase taking the scalp of First Lieutenant and Quito De La Roque and he was now showing that 3m plus and chasing game was going to be his sphere, he cannot be dismissed lightly once more, he deserves his place in this, but is he going to upset the party and be the second Kauto in three seasons to beat Long Run.
LONG RUN : 3pt Win @ 2/1 (BOG)
Strong Treble for me
DARLAN
LONG RUN3 X 2pt Doubles
1 X 3pt TrebleWILLIAM HILL.COM CHRISTMAS HURDLE
(GRADED 1)
2m Soft
A very competitive Grade 1 Hurdle which has attracted some useful types despite the weather trying to disrupt proceedings all over the country.We see the likes of Supreme Novices Winner
CINDERS AND ASHES
and his main rival and fighting fifth conquerer in
COUNTRYWIDE FLAME
.
Lets see how these two have progressed into two very smart hurdlers, The first will be Donald McCain’s Cinders and Ashes. You could see his potential after his excellent sixth in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper the previous year.
At a race of knots he has shown his potential when beating another of his rivals today in Darlan by one and a quarter lengths in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices at Cheltenham, and went on to be beaten by Countrywide Flame last time out in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle easily.
His advantage this time around is he will get in once more of his current mark of 151 and will not have to handle a penalty like his fighting fifth defeat to Countrywide Flame who has to contend with a 6lb penalty this time around, there was only a 1lb in the ratings that day from the Newcastle run and I expect Cinders and Ashes to reverse the form this time around, yes twelve lengths is a lot to make up over a short period,but he met an entry that day who had a benefit of a few runs prior.
DARLAN
is interesting in this for Nicky Henderson, runner up in the Supreme behind Cinders and Ashes, the second season hurdler was making giant strides into the winners lead to finish just a length and a quarter in defeat, he went on to Aintree and showed his class when beating a useful type in Captain Conan in the Grade 2 Tangle Teaser Top Novices Hurdle, and not only did he win the race he did it in top style by three and three quarter lengths.
The form is now becoming very solid after Captain Conan has gone on to win both his starts of the new campaign which have come in the like of the Grade 2 RP Arkle Trial and more recently the Grade 1 Henry V111 Novices Chase beating a useful Hinterland in the process.
This is a very hard one to call with hot form coming to the table, Cinders and Ashes for me should reverse his Fighting Fifth defeat to the hands of Countrywide Flame this time around, but I am drawn to the Supreme Novices form and the runner up form the race in
DARLAN
who I feel is going to be another to keep on the right side of this season and if he as good as I think he can be he should be winning this on the bridle for McCoy.
DARLAN : 3pts Win @ 5/2
KAUTO STAR FELTHAM NOVICES CHASE
(GRADE 1)
3m Soft
David Pipe has a very exciting chaser in his camp in
DYNASTE
who has won both of his chase starts to date which included the Grade 2 Novice Fullers London Pride Chase at Newbury beating Court in Motion comfortably by four and a half lengths with Theatre Guide back in third a further seven lengths adrift and even though he takes on the Colin Tizzard entry once more it would be very foolish to consider a reverse of form is around the corner.
After finishing eighth in the World Hurdle to Big Bucks at this years festival at Prestbury Park he has taken to the bigger fences like water off a ducks back and he is going to be a force around this sphere this season and another big step with the Cheltenham Festival around the corner.
So who could we be looking at to upset Christmas for the Pipe team, personally I cannot see the result being a surprise but for the each way punter you could be looking around the likes of Poungach and Molotof representing two top stables in Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls.
The former will be tackling his stiffest contest to date and will have to step up after his disappointing second at Wincanton when beaten by Venetia Williams Houblon Des Obeaux by just over four lengths, but he stayed on well over the 2m 5f distance when snatching the runners up spot from Court in Motion who went on to finish behind Dynaste at Newbury.
He was subsequently stepped up in trip to 2m 6f and relish the soft conditions when staying on well to beat Super Duty of Donald McCain’s by two and a half lengths, that form has been franked since when Super Duty made a mockery of his adversaries at Cheltenham winning by thirteen lengths, lets not dismiss him lightly as he was a 155 rated hurdler and has kept good company behind the likes of Big Bucks and Oscar Whisky this year.
Nicky Henderson is having what can only be described as a cracking season so far and his representative in this is Molotof, way off the pace this year in the Martin Pipe Conditionals at Cheltenham and went on to Aintree to run fifth behind Simonsig in the Grade 2 Mersey’s Novice Hurdle it was on the cards that his action would do him no harm diverting to chasing early in his career.
Just five years old he opened his account at the first attempt when winning at Taunton when beating 132 rated Changing Times by one and a half lengths, he was stepped up and ran Nicholls Rocky Creek within four lengths turning around the form from Cheltenham with Attaglance.
His only run at Kempton came as a hurdler early in his career when finishing splitting Zarakandar and Kumbeshwar in the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile hurdle, but realistically he would have to really step up his game to get close to Dynaste or even Poungach in this.
Overview really we should not be looking any further than David Pipe’s
DYNASTE
, but things happen in this sport and I put up a shorty last week and was overturned convincingly, so I am a bit cautious this time around, the top stables team up to take the limelight away from the Pipe team with Nicky Henderson double handed, Paul Nicholl’s and Colin Tizzard who is also double handed, but I give this to Dynaste at a short price.
DYNASTE : 5pt Win @ 4/7
Well today’s update not encouraging with a very useful Reve De Sivola winning comfortably and beating the selection well, Cash and Go never got competitive when falling and the football well i did not see that coming Liverpool going on to win 4-0 today.
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU ALL
Weekend Football Bets
(22nd December)
BARCLAYS PREMIERSHIP
LIVERPOOL V FULHAM
Brendan Rogers is not having the greatest of impacts at Anfield since his appointment,lying in 12th position on 22pts they are already 7pts behind Spurs in 4th and a massive 20pts behind league leaders Manchester United.
They entertain Martin Jol’s Fulham in the live evening kick off on Saturday, Jol’s Cottagers are just 2pts behind Liverpool in the league and an away win will see them leap frog the reds.
On the statistics Liverpool have won 21 encounters returning a 67% profit return, and with 9 games drawn it would be harsh on them to consider that The Cottagers can come to Anfield and expect a result.
It has been over the meetings a good bet on the goals scored with an average of 2.5 per game, but we cannot write off Fulham who done the double of the reds last season winning both games by a single goal and since 2008 Fulham are 5-2 on the result with two drawn.
Liverpool
: 8/13
Fulham
: 5/1
Draw
: 3/1
Fulham are a massive price at 5/1 and it is probably a bet that should not be overlooked lightly as so is the draw at 3/1.For me a bet is with the goals scored and under 2.5 looks promising at 11/10 and i am going to hold out for a draw on this.
Under 2.5 Goals
: 2pts @ 11/10
Draw
: 1.5pts @ 3/1
Correct Score
: 1pt (
1-1
)@ 7/1
THE LADBROKE (HCP HURDLE)(LISTED)
Personally I have narrowed this down to just three entries with the main bet coming in Nicky Henderson"
CASH AND GO
", but before I get to the selection the other two who also deserve a mention are John Ferguson’s
and Tom George’s
Tom George’sOlofi
comes into this off the back of a good win when beating today’s selection in the Grade 3 Racing Post Hurdle at Prestbury Park back in November when also fending off the likes of Bothy and recent winner Dark Lover.
The form is looking solid and the question is can Olofi hold the form now giving weight back to his adversary for two and a half lengths, can he also overcome an 8lb penalty for the win and will be running off a career highest mark, but a win on an Cheltenham has to be good form and should hold claims here at Ascot in ground he relishes.
John Ferguson’s
Cotton Mill
will probably have to overcome ground that has not gone in his favor this afternoon, most of his wins have come on ground that has either been good to firm, with one win on good to soft which came at the beginning of the year at Warwick when landing the Grade 2 Leamington Novices Hurdle when off a mark of 139.
He was traveling ominously well at Prestbury Park back in March when unseating his pilot Denis O’Regan, he was in contention from four out and even though he was a length to the good, I am not going to say he would of gone on to beat Simonsig, but he would of definitely been placed.
He finished the season off at Aintree when third to Lovcen in the Grade 1 Sefton Hurdle, and just maybe the wind had been taken out of his sails after his mistake at Prestbury Park a month earlier, and Lovcen has not held the form in his last two runs since, and Fingal Bay ran out on season debut in the Harry Dutfield Memorial Novice Chase at Exeter in a race he was expected to win.
One thing in his favor is that he has won fresh in the past, and we can all have off days, with Prestbury form on paper to look at we have to take on trust he can bounce back under the penalty.
Finally to the selection in
CASH AND GO
, Nicky Henderson has a very good record in this race and with Paul Nicholl’s yard under what looks a slight cloud it would probably be worth backing the Berkshire trainer as champion this season. Cash and Go had to hand defeat to one of his adversaries this afternoon in Olofi by two and a half lengths, but he was conceding 6lb that day and only concedes 1lb this afternoon.
The form of the Grade 3 Racing Post Hurdle is looking stronger as the season progresses with Dark Lover winning recently, and he had a few of these beaten that day well.
It will certainly be interesting to see if he can overturn the defeat to the Tom George entry, but what does go in his favor is that he is a two time winner on soft ground last year when with Edward O’Grady, he is already a Grade 1 Novice winner and his has joined the Berkshire trainer over the spring and his first run should bring him on and I expect a reverse of from and go close.
CASH AND GO : 2pts each way @ 8.8
