Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
LINGFIELD 15.45
Patrick Chamings
: 2012-13 (40%) (-1.00)
George Baker
: 2012-13 (18%) (-24.43)
Baker & Chamings
: 2012-13 (50%) (+6.20)
FLAVIUS VICTOR
: 1pt Win @ 4/1
5th January 2013
LINGFIELD
15.10
Charles Hills
: 2012-13 (33%) (Level)
Robert Winston
: 2012-13 (13%) (-9.59)
Winston & Hills
: 2012-13 (44%) (+9.80)
RUGOSA
:
George Baker
: 2012-13 (25%) (+1.00)
Jim Crowley
: 2012-13 (26%) (+9.35)
Crowley & Baker
: 2012-13 (40%) (+1.23)
ANCIENT GREECE
:
Dutch Race
Not the greatest of days – just the one placed runner, My concerns on Danny Mullins should of proved right and left the jockey alone but that’s gambling.
Bets Placed
:
Returns
:
Profit
:
SR
:
FP
: 12300
DUNDALK 20.50
M Phelan
: 2009-12 (23%) (+11.25)
One Entry at the course.
M Phelan & D Mullins
: 2009-12 (22%) (+2.25)
Jockey a slight concern is only (5%) (-71.75) – over past 12 months is (13%) (+5.25) at Dundalk which has resulted in a (50%) (+1.25) with the trainer Phelan. Worth a pop i think
ALGHANEM
:
4th January 2013
Wolverhampton 19.00
Ryan Clark
: 2012-13 (20%) (+16.80)
Has one ride for Tom Keddy
Tom Keddy
: 2012-13 (50%) (+19.00)
Clarke & Keddy Combo
: 2012-13 (20%) (+16.00)
CAIRANNE
:
Irish AW is processed over past 4 seasons
DUNDALK 19.50
Andrew Lynch
: 2009-2012 (20%) (+4.00)
Has one ride for Henry De Bromhead (One out)
Henry De Bromhead
: 2009-12 (33%) (+14.00)
Bromhead & Lynch
: 2009-12 (Never combo on flat) (17% Jumps)
ABSOLUTELYFANTASTIC
: 1pt Win @ 7/2
4th January 2013
Wolverhampton
14.30
Robert Havlin
: 2012-13 (30%) (-3.93)
Has one ride for trainer Amy Weaver.(One Sent)
Amy Weaver
: 2012-13 (100%) (+1.63)
Havlin & Weaver Combo
: 2012-13 (100%) (+4.63)
SANDY LANE
: 2pt Win @ 9/4
I use to be a big fan of "Brown Windsor" and was just young when he won the Whitbread – Nice post and enjoyed reading it BB
With the blog updated I do feel Teaforthree is solid enough for the race but is short at 7/2 and favorites have not been that good just 1-10, but i feel in this ground and already a winner over 4m at the festival back in March he has to be considered as does the Nigel Twiston-Davies VIKING BLOND.
I felt the each way bet in the race, has been emptying out over just shy of the trip and has been getting caught on the run in. the 3m 3f race when third to Monbeg Dude he had concede weight to the winner of 11LB. a hard ask but McCoy booked on Teaforthree who with his drive and strength could get him home infront
CORAL WELSH NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3)
The late run of the Welsh National will now take place on this coming Saturday card with the weather permitting once more. Twenty three runners still hold their ground at this stage and I have managed to bring this down to two entries in Nigel Twiston-Davies
VIKING BLOND
and Rebecca Curtis’s
TEAFORTHREE
.
On a personal note i have been slightly disappointed with Sam Twiston-Davies strength in a finish, maybe I am talking through my pocket, but both his finishes on the Charlie Egertons horses last week (Capellini & Seedless) was not encouraging and both of his mounts traveled well throughout and and he was looking around on both when again to be traveling the best of the field to be caught twice on the run in.
He did prove me wrong when giving African Gold a peach of a ride the following day so yeah probably pocket talk, he rides in this on his fathers Viking Blond and I feel a strong
run is anticipated by the NTD camp. He has competed in two tough handicap races of the new season with his layoff he came back to run behind Action Master in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle qualifier at Cheltenham when finishing two lengths off the eventual winner and was only muscled out of it in the final 75 yards.
He returned back to Prestbury park when finishing third to an adversary this afternoon in Monbeg Dude by a neck when conceding 11lb at the weights. that was over a distance of 3m 3f, will he get the extra quarter of a mile in these conditions as he has been emptying out in the closing stages, his 6lb he has to concede to Monbeg Dude this time around gives him a lot to do once more to reverse the form around over the extra distance.
Rebecca Curtis’s Teaforthree won the long haul Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham festival meeting back in March over the four mile index, even though he drops back half a mile he looks an ideal candidate to win this. He has not come back full of beans though and has very much looked one pace from his two new campaign starts which included finishing thirty five lengths behind Viking Blond and even further behind Monbeg Dude in the same race.
He was giving over a stone to the winner and only 4lb to Viking Blond, he will have to seriously turnaround the deficit as the weights have not really done him any favors once more having to concede weight once more.
I do feel though the two mentioned could still cut it over this trip in this bottomless conditions, and with
TEAFORTHREE
already a four mile winner and Viking Bond going for a team that look to be inform, I would not go past to suggest a serious dutch in this on the both, with Viking Blond being the each way scenario around 8/1 BOG.
TEAFORTHREE : 2.5pt Win @ 7/2 (BOG) VIKING BLOND : 1pt each way @ 8/1 (BOG)
CORAL.CO.UK FUTURE CHAMPIONS FINALE JUVENILE HURDLE
Grade 1
very open race and with so many on paper showing some unknown quality it is not a race that is going to take a lot of winning in my opinion. Two on paper that really stand out are Alan Kings
HANDAZAN
and Sarah Humphrey’s
VASCO D’ YCY
.
The latter represents Sarah Humphrey’s. a few runs in France when he was trained by Lellouche, was bought in over the latter part of August and made a pleasing debut when finishing second on hurdling debut at Ludlow going behind by two lengths to Tidal Way of Charlie Longsdon’s.
He showed that form well and went on to beat Philip Hobbs Pistol by two and a half lengths and that form has been boosted with Pistol going on to
win a Class 3 juvenile hurdle at Newbury recently. He has two entries this afternoon and would probably prefer the ground at Sandown in an easier juvenile contest, but the weather has basically made all meetings on bottomless ground and I would say he is 50/50 of even running on the day, but he is a nice prospect and still has to be considered. The one of interest is the Alan Kings Handazan.
The ex John Oxx inmate had a rating of 94 on the level and was a winner on heavy ground in Ireland, he made his hurdling debut over course and distance when running behind the useful Nicholl’s trained Far West who has now posted a rating of 151 and beat the him again on their last outing at Cheltenham on heavy ground.
With three runs over hurdles this season, he has won once already at Catterick on good to soft ground, one going the right way in my opinion and if handling the mud once more he could take all the beating in this. One that probably cannot be dismissed is John Ferguson’s
RUACANA
, he was one I thought would be winning better races than he did on the level when with Michael Bell, rated 89 he should cut it at this level and if handling the bottomless ground he should be thereabouts at the business end.
It is a tough one to call with the likes of some nice prospects in Ruacana, Handazan and Vasco D’ Tcy in the field, and out of three Handazan is making a lot of appeal to whom he has run against so far in Far West. Sarah Humphrey’s Vasco D’ Tcy is one of the most experienced entries in this and his line of form through Pistol and I would give him a post rating of 128 for this, so probably a little to find with the likes of what Handazan has been up against. So I have to side with Handazan to fulfill his promise of the two runs behind Far West this season.
HANDAZAN : 2pt Win @ SP RUACANA : 1pt ew @ SP
Watching the race again how Ruby found the gap in the first place was gutsy riding, But I am wondering what price Sir Des Champs will be for the Gold Cup NRNB because despite making mistakes he did come into it in the closing stages and possibly an extra quarter of a mile would be beneficial on good ground ?
14.10 Newbury : State Benefit (NAP)
14.45 Newbury : Clondaw Keampfer
15.15 Newbury : Top of the Range
Reserves
14.25 Doncaster : Sixties Something
I am sweet on Tidal Bay in this as my blog suggests, His Hennessy run was for me the best i have seen him in a long while, and as mentioned already 11 year old winning this would be a first, but this 11 year old is thriving with every run and if on the premises two out he could give the big two something to think about on the run in.
LEICESTERSHIRE SILVER FOX HANDICAP CHASE
(CLASS 4) 2m 4f 110y
A very open Handicap Chase is the 2.40, but I have a tendency to stick around the right end of the market in this and the selection will be Kim Bailey’s
BALLYWATT
. The Kayf Tara six year old has come back after a seven month layoff in good heart with two worthy runner up spots.
His return to action came at Newbury when finishing second to Wings of Smoke in a Conditional Jockey’s Handicap and it was encouraging return when staying on over the two and a quarter mile trip, the third that day was Drumshambo who has gone on to win his last three runs, so the form is looking very solid enough to suggest a good sizable bet on this today.
All the angles must be covered though and into the equation comes the Nigel Twiston-Davies
Red Rouble
and Venetia Williams top weight
Bailey’s Concerto
, the former mentioned has also come back in good heart after a break over the summer, he won well over two and three quarter miles here at Leicester when beating Nom De Guerre by three parts of a length.
I am not convinced that was a strong race, his second run came at Cheltenham in bottomless ground when behind Plen Pouvoir by three and three quarter lengths, and maybe the ground was not that great and the trip took some getting around Prestbury Park so I am willing to overlook the run, Stable inform so a worthy adversary.
Last but not least is the top weight here in
Bailey’s Concerto
whom I make the main threat to the selection, Venetia Williams is certainly got her string in good heart and her six year old is very lightly raced and with only two runs over the larger obstacles he brushed off his mishap when unseating Liam Treadwell at Huntingdon on seasons re-appearance and was very much in contention when the mistake arose two out.
Would he of won I think he would of fought out the finish, a month off saw him come back when finishing second at Towcester when ridden again by Liam Treadwell, the ground looked on the quick side that day and never looked like winning and the reason why the 18L defeat arose. Back on this tacky ground he has to be respected and the 9/1 bet each way could be a steal.
BALLYWATT : 3pt Win @ 9/4
BAILEY’S CONCERTO
:
1pt ew @ 9/1
LEXUS CHASE
(GRADE 1)
This looks a the match up of the day with both
FLEMENSTAR
and
SIR DES CHAMPS
taking their chances on the big stage once more. Peter Casey’s star Flemenstar beat the SDC on their last encounter in the Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown and did it in style when finding a nice turn of foot to win by five lengths and done the job very readily.
He is now unbeaten in seven chases and has even seen off the likes of Bog Warrior back in March at Naas by a very wide margin and it is safely to say that Flemenstar has progressed since then once more. He looks versatile on any ground and he is definitely the one to beat once more. Words on many lips, can Sir Des Champs reverse the form from Punchestown, I
personally think he wont get close to the Casey entry, since beating Champion Court in the Grade 1 Jewson Novices Chase at Cheltenham, he went on to win the Grade 1 Growse Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown when beating Shop DJ by thirty six lengths, and on my lips I feel that this is exactly is what he is at present a Novice, that might be harsh to say as on his day is is very useful, but that day at Punchestown he was seen beating a horse that was 30lb less superior so thirty six lengths is about right. This grade he might struggle again and does have a tendancy to make the odd error on his jumping, looks second best here.
English challengers have done well in the past and Paul Nicholls sends over
TIDAL BAY
, winner of the Grade 2 John Smiths Hurdle at Wetherby on his return when beating Crack Away Jack when beating the likes of Smad Place and Cape Tribulation in the process. Cape Tribulation franked that form when winning on Boxing Day in the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby and to be fair did it in style, Smad Place has also ran well recently when finishing second to a smart individual in Reve De Sivola in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle.
His last run saw him finish behind Bobs Worth in the Hennessey Gold Cup Chase and had the likes of First Lieutenant beaten by five lengths when giving 7lb at the weights and with the weights still in his favor he should be holding that form with confidence. I actually feel he is a live contender in this, can he give four years to the likes of Flemenstar and five to Sir Des Champs is a big ask, especially to the likes of Flemenstar, but he is not there to make the numbers up and if on his A game is can go very close in my opinion.
Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar will have their own private battle here which i expect Flemenstar to come out on top once more, but it is the British raider that interests me for Paul Nicholl’s, he has been in great from so far this season and he looks the value of the race around 5/1 BOG.
TIDAL BAY : 2pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)
