Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
“Read and then read some more”
I would like to offer an alternative to that seemingly excellent advice, namely “think and then think some more”.
It only makes sense to back race horses if one believes that in the main there is logic in how horses run, and the fact that on average the favourite is the most likely winner supports that view (though of course it is as important to realise that, crudely, two favourites get beaten for every one that wins).
So from a starting point of believing that in the main there is logic in the outcome of races it seems to me to follow that the task is essentially an intellectual one – understanding the logic, which means being able to articulate it in operational terms.
I’ve read quite a few books on race analysis and the single most important expression of the logic within horse racing I’ve found is just sixteen words long: “it is the balance between class, form and the other factors which shows the good things” (the author having already made it clear that by “other factors” he meant what I think of conditions issues – course type, distance, going and, for some flat races, draw).
Thinking of effective ways of operationalizing “class” and “form”, and understanding the relationship between them, and understanding how and when the various conditions issues impact, is in my view how one’s time is most profitably spent.
Thanks for your input George, agree with your comments here.
For me as a beginner, reading over material provided me with the clues on exactly what to think about, you’ve articulated it more effectively than I did here but it does essentially boil down to logic in operational factors (and of course a little luck at times).
Without pouring over material I don’t think I’d have known where to start. Totally get your point though, I definitely look at races from a different perspective than say 18 months ago and there is a method (logic) in the madness.
Hi all,
Roughly a year and a half ago I joined this forum and posted this topic looking for guidance on next steps for my betting and for racing in general. I was given some really helpful tips and guidance which helped in my foundation which I’ve been developing over this time.
I thought I’d check-in with some of the things I’ve learned along the way which has proved incredibly useful to me in the hopes that they might help another.
• Recordkeeping
This has been crucial to my progress, obviously the primary benefit is recording your returns (p&l) but have found it really useful in analysis through each month. A few months ago I hit a particularly poor losing run, more so than usual, which made me start questioning my own method. It was only by going back and comparing my betting activity did I realise that unconsciously I had changed something in my method. Once I noticed this change and reverted back within a week or so I starting to see profit again. Looking back this was a minor change but it had a measurable impact on my results.• Stick to your methods
Over the months I have on many occasions felt the need to up my stakes on a particular horse which I thought was a ‘sure thing’. Often that horse will win, but more often than not it won’t. This strikes me as the difference between investing in racing and gambling. Wherever possible now whenever I get the inclination to up my stakes I will take time to remember that with my method I won’t become rich overnight but I will slowly see a profit. This isn’t to say I won’t try and improve things incrementally, just that I stay away from substantial gambles which fall outside of my core method.• Focused approach
On starting out I was involved in many different forms of racing be it A\W, turf or National Hunt and even some overseas racing at times. The key I found was finding a corner of the market which suited my method. For me that turned out to be National Hunt races, typically lower class handicaps with more than 8 runners. The sort of races which either have a very clear favourite and/ one who I don’t believe is as good as the market suggests or a race where there is a clear market uncertainty. No maidens, thanks!• Level Stake
For my method, using a level stake seems logical. My plan here is to test my method over a year before increasing the stake to a higher level stake. This works for me in keeping things simple.• Multiples
I’ve learnt this one the hard way. Although it’s great fun hitting a decent double or treble in some cases. These over time have shown me a 25% ROI loss over the period of this year. I’ve decided to stay well clear, although will have the odd low stakes Lucky 15 if I think I have some decent picks, but generally avoid – this isn’t a get rich quick scheme.• Cashing Out
No thanks. Was afforded some good insight again from this forum and now steer well clear.• Importance of Value, Percentage and Probability
Although I’m no maths buff, thanks to many on this forum I took an early appreciation to the importance of value and probability which now forms the core of my method in backing. I believe this has been instrumental to having some decent returns over the course of the year. Most memorable was COOLE CODY at Cheltenham a few weeks ago who came in at 25/1, a horse which on my tissue was overpriced in the market and looked a value bet. I’ve now read several books on racing thanks to suggestions on this forum and found that a significant portion are using value in their methodology in some form or another.• Ground, Ground, Ground.
I really underappreciated its importance in early stages of my betting and now it’s something which I’ll consider at the top of my analysis. As a student pilot (my other passion outside of racing) weather is so instrumental – very similar in the case of horse racing as it seems! I often place my bets the evening before the race or very early morning and now as part of my method I’ll be sure to check the weather from a variety of sources and try to anticipate its effect on the ground at the course.• Read and then read some more!
Probably the most important one. This forum has been the key to put me onto books, journalists, authors and regular forum posters here – this has formed the basis of my approach and has proved invaluable. I do regular long commutes each day, this has afforded me plenty of time to read and then read some more!I’m still a newcomer to the sport but have learnt a lot over the past year, many thanks to all those who post on this forum, even just a passing thought or idea has helped me in forming an idea or taking a different approach.
I’m not advocating any of the above for all, it’s just what has worked for me and it’s by no means a complete list or perfect – just a few things I’ve picked up along the way. I’m no millionaire that’s for sure but have returned a reasonable profit this year which hopefully will continue.
I’d like this to serve as a thank you to all those on this post or off, who’ve helped in some way (most without even knowing it!).
Of course still very open to all idea’s, criticisms or otherwise. I’m here to learn! :)
Cheers
Steve
Thanks for all the replies chaps.
Yes a primary concern was around massive crowds but I’m guessing that is to be expected on Boxing Day whichever course you attend. Thanks for the suggestion Ginger, unfortunately most are heading back then.
Currently leaning toward Fontwell and have to chance it, it’s practically half the price of the ticket at Kempton and I’m not enthralled about the combination of massive crowds and plenty on the drink. If it was just the wife and I, would be doable – but with family of all ages and kids wouldn’t be a best idea!
From what I understand by choosing to use the cash out option you are entering into a service provided by the bookmaker on the bookmaker’s own terms. Thus the bookmaker will nearly always take a profit margin when the market has changed in any way, which will be whatever amount the bookmaker sees fit to in each individual case, and this will be reflected in the bookmaker’s offer to you.
The bookmaker’s greedy determination to take a profit may alone in the bookmaker’s eyes outweigh the fact that, in your example, the offer is patently unattractive. However, you do have the choice to decline and not cash out.
Your horse has shortened but that is only one part of the story and what only the bookmaker knows is how the market, which has changed since you placed your bet, is shaping at the moment you ask to cash out in terms of the bookmaker’s overall liabilities. It may be a fair offer or the bookmaker may be using the fact that the market has changed as a smokescreen to try to take a profit!
Thanks, that makes perfect sense.
Likely the reason I’ve seen it go into profit at times and other times not is in directly relation to changes in the market the bookmaker is seeing but the public aren’t and of course their profit margin.
Learn something new every day in this game!
Thanks.
Being quite new to the sport and jumping in particular and seeing that on Saturday honestly I’ve not seen a horse as comfortable.
The wife was commenting on the chases being too high the other day, had to stop and record one of those jumps of his and show her what Altior thought of them, in his element!
Wish I’d had a few quid on before!
My advice is don’t pay any attention whatsoever to what pundits on tv/newspapers/online say. And tipsters, avoid them like you would avoid an oncoming dogshit on the pavement.
The only way to learn is to do your 5 to 10 year apprenticeship.Thanks, yes – I’ve got this in mind already there is no shortage of the experience needed!
My advice is don’t pay any attention whatsoever to what pundits on tv/newspapers/online say. And tipsters, avoid them like you would avoid an oncoming dogshit on the pavement.
The only way to learn is to do your 5 to 10 year apprenticeship.Ouch!
I disagree Viltash, if someone had been there to point out a few things I’d have made a profit a lot sooner.
If I hadn’t listened and read (including to the first one to reply on this thread) about how others do it then I would never have made a profit. Although yes, you’ve got to choose who to listen to carefully.Thanks for the nice words Cavelino and nwalton.
Nipper,
It’ll probably be best for you to start off by just enjoying the sport for a while.But if you want to be put off betting for good read on…
I don’t know what your finances are like, but if wanting to study form and make money from your own picks then a good form “book” (on the computer) is essential. Along with – and some won’t like me saying this – some understanding of the mathematics of betting and in turn… value. Value can be long, mid or short prices depending on the amount of chance you personally believe the horse has of winning compared to the odds available.
The only way to achieve consistent profits is to find value, there are many many ways to find value.
I can personally vouch for “Timeform Race Passes” as a form book.
If looking at their free race pass you can get an idea of what’s involved in making a profit.
If you are interested in Timeform products then perhaps the best little book I bought was “betting the Timeform way”, it’s out of Press now, 1980’s I do believe – but you can sometimes buy one on e-bay.It will take time to learn what to look out for. Knowing the form book fom back to front is not enough, a punter needs to be able to convert that form in to chance.
More than anything else the two angles that give me an edge are “pace in the race” (how the race is likely to be run and who it will suit) and “trainers in (and out) of form”.
If you want a guide for the Grand National then look no further than this TRF site.
See the Big Race Discussion section, 2016 Grand National thread, page 21.
It’ll also give you an insight in to the things to look out for.Good luck Steve (not that there is such a thing)
And happy punting.
Thanks so much for all the helpful guidance! My math could probably do with some beefing up that’s for sure but practice and more practice I guess. I found a copy of that book on eBay for a tenner which I’ve ordered alongside the RP definitive guide to betting on horses as it looked like a good basic comprehensive guide to some fundamentals of the sport.
Extra thanks for the link to your analysis, WOW!, that’s going to be a huge help for my focus prior to Saturday as well going forward with the analytical process followed
Cheers
SteveWow! Thanks so much all you’ve really helped so much already. Exactly the type of information I’ve been looking for!
Your best bet is to trawl through the past threads on here that deal with your questions. If we had a working search facility, this would not be too difficult, but that’s something that’s been lacking ever since we switched to this format.
But you can search using Google and if you look for keywords like ‘form book’ or ‘analysis’ or ‘draw’ or ‘weight’, you should find some useful material. Also have a look at the Archive section of the forum, where some of the most useful stuff is probably stored and that’s small enough to make a page by page scan feasible.
As you find good ideas, then use the names of those contributors to go looking for more of their input.
Most of all though, I’m afraid there’s no substitute for experience, and I speak as someone who started at age 14, which is now 54 years ago. You’ll have to learn by your own mistakes and that means making those mistakes in the first place. The best single piece of advice I can offer is don’t just forget your losers as soon as the race is finished – go back and see if you can work out why you were wrong, That will be more useful than rapidly moving on to the next race or the next day, which is what I did for the first 25 years!
Thanks yes – that was my first port of call but as you mentioned didn’t find much through the search function and I believe there were over 100k posts! That’s really useful advice as I’ve been doing exactly that, moving on rapidly without considering what went wrong with my selections – being more interested in improving the next lot. Thanks for the links those are exactly what I’ve been after in terms of the process of elimination and the detailed analysis.
I’m relatively new to the sport aswell my knowledge wouldnt go back beyond october 2014. The one thing I learned from watching racing everyday is to trust your eyes not your ears. By that I mean that there is a lot of nonsense talked by trainers about horses being better than ever and tearing up gallops etc (twiston-Davies talking about The New One this season is a perfect example). What you see on the racecourse is the main thing for me, unless of course it’s a JPMcManus horse or indeed any horse trained by Elliot, Martin, or jonjo o Neill, then you just don’t know what might be going on. Another piece of wisdom that has served me well is to try see when are horse is a certain price because of the trainers reputation rather than on the horses form. Lots of value can be got from backing against these.
Other than those specifics id suggest to just watch as much racing as you can and just use the racing post website or attheraces website for a few minutes in the morning to look through the cards to become more familiar with those involved
Yep – this has already highlighted a problem I’m guilty of already trusting my ears more than my eyes. I’ve had instances where a horse was talked up to the point where it almost seems like a certainty without seeing them in action. I have been it’s a massive subject so as apracing said above it’s experience which can’t be substituted here I guess.
You’ll need a good BS filter when it comes to the racing media, but the views of the below mentioned can be very informative, and well worth listening to (I dont mean following their day to day tips blind). Particularly at this time of the year, when lists of horses to follow for the flat are being put forward.
Steve Mellish
Tony Calvin
Paul Kealy
Kevin Blake
Tom Segal
Gary O’Brien
Hugh TaylorOn here I find the speed figure work of The Blues Brother and “percentage” approach of Ginger Tipster, always worth a read.
For general racing news, Greg Wood and Chris Cook both at The Guardian, are the two best journalists in racing imo.
Simon Rowlands blog on the Timeform website is essential, actually most of the articles on there are a decent read and will contribute to your knowledge of the game.
On the book front I’ve found the books by Mordin, Potts, Gibby, Blake and Taylor great. Not so much for the actual methods contained within, but they do stimulate the creative juices and help with formulating ideas of your own.
That’s a few resources to get started with, most of them are free.
On the punting front, I’d say the ability the handle losing streaks is absolutely paramount. Certainly the most vital component in any successful punters makeup imo. And its much easier said than done. The vast majority of the population just dont have the “invincibility to losing streaks” gene in them. Its what marks out the tiny percentage of profitable punters imo. The book by Frank Scatoni is a great read in this regard.
There’s a lot of dogma about how to punt. Ignore it and find a method that suits your own temperament. We’re all different in that regard.
Its a tremendous game. Good luck.
Excellent – thank you. I’ll start watching out and following these writers. Yep tell me about it! I have had days where I’ve been thinking why do I put myself through this – but I’ve always been drawn to racing since I was young thanks to my late father although back then I didn’t take too much notice – I regret that now! :)
Enjoy yourself. If you seriously want to make it pay, don’t get engaged or married or have kids and be prepared to cut off family and friends.
Are you betting for fun or to earn enough to change your lifestyle?
If the latter, don’t get engaged or married or have kids etc.
Keep accurate betting records and then, if you’ve made a profit (making sure to deduct costs such as racecourse entry fees / racecards, papers, books, petrol etc.) divide that by the number of hours you’ve spent on it to get your hourly rate. And then apply to Costa for Barista job.
Good luck though!Haha – No it’s definitely on the fun/hobby side of things! My own rule which I’ve stuck to is that I have a fixed amount each week for racing and when that’s finished – it’s finished until next week. With an exception for the bigger events like Cheltenham..I also make a rubbish coffee so best to stick to the day job! :)
there are many decent posters on here,but at the end of the day hard work is the way.
have a look at the daily play/lay threads etc.
Steve caution is a good poster along with nathan,vtc,ginger and Jonibake,sorry if i have missed any out,but have your own opinions but you wont go far wrong mixing and matching some of thesegood luck
Thanks – I’ve started coming across these already and I’m sure I’ll get to know more as I hang around on the forums.
Thanks again guys – you’ve given me a lot to consider and I’m really glad I decided to ask for your insight.
Cheers
Steve
