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TheBluesBrother

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  • July 17, 2009 at 11:19 in reply to: Private Handicapping #239895
    Avatar photoTheBluesBrother
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    Not sure what I am looking at on the lower list. Can you explain?

    The lower list is the complete form and my ratings for Cape Royal back to 2008 to show where the 81 rating came from.

    July 16, 2009 at 12:56 in reply to: Private Handicapping #239796
    Avatar photoTheBluesBrother
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    8:55 Bath
    Thu 16 Jul:

    LINDLEY CATERING HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-75) Winner £4,209 Firm 5f11y Number of runners: 11

    1 11 08-625 OCEAN BLAZE 5 9-11 75 Chris Catlin

    77

    +2
    2 10 481287 DESPERATE DAN 8 9-9 73 P Nolan(7)

    77

    +4 1st 10-1[/color:3gsrgk9l]
    3 6 669-74 HEAVEN 4 9-8 72 Darryll Holland

    62

    -10
    4 8 863237 CAPE ROYAL 9 9-6 70 Kevin Ghunowa(3)

    81

    +11 3rd 18-1[/color:3gsrgk9l]
    5 5 777623 ESPY 4 9-6 70 Eddie Ahern

    64

    -6
    6 1 323087 MAZZOLA 3 9-4 72 M C Geran(5)

    68

    -4
    7 7 452212 MATTEROFACT 6 9-4 68 Seb Sanders

    75

    +7 2nd 2-1 fav[/color:3gsrgk9l]
    8 3 8606-8 LITTLEMISSSUNSHINE 4 9-3 67 Fergus Sweeney

    52

    -15
    9 2 427136 BRANDYWELL BOY 6 8-12 62 Richard Thomas

    67

    +5
    10 4 223363 STEP IT UP 5 8-12 62 Stephen Donohoe

    65

    +3
    11 9 283314 GREEN LAGONDA 6x 7 8-8 58 Paul Doe

    60

    +2

    This is an example on how I look at a race:

    The top rated is Cape Royal (

    81

    ) who had been running well until his last race, and
    he is rated +11 above his offical rating on my ratings, i.e. the figure before the jockey’s name.
    The forecast horse would be Desperate Dan 77 +4 and with his Jockeys allowance
    of (7) is the main danger.

    CAPE ROYAL: 1st Rating is OR and the 2nd is my MHR

    DATE RACE CONDITIONS RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY OR MR
    04 July 2009 Hay 5Gd C4Hc6K 7/9 5L, Red Rosanna[12/1]8-8tb Kevin Ghunowa 71 62
    27 June 2009 Lin 5GF C5Hc3K 3/8 1½L, Matterofact[11/2]9-4tb L P Keniry 71 69
    20 June 2009 Lin 5GF C5Hc3K 2/8 1½L, Sands Crooner[11/4F]9-13tb Kevin Ghunowa 71 74

    14 June 2009 Sal 5GF C4Hc4K 3/9 ¾L, The Jobber[20/1]9-11tb Kevin Ghunowa 71 81

    11 June 2009 Hay 5GF C4Hc5K 6/10 5¾L, Mandurah[25/1]10-0tb Kevin Ghunowa 71 61
    22 May 2009 Bri 5GF C5Hc3K 8/10 9½L, Ziggy Lee[33/1]8-11tb Luke Morris 74 35
    07 November 2008 Mus 5Sft C4Hc5K 9/13 4½L, Roker Park[10/1]9-1t David Allan 74 48
    29 October 2008 Not 5Hy C5Hc3K 1/13 ½L, Make My Dream[10/1]9-0t Kevin Ghunowa 70 78
    25 October 2008 Wol 5St C4Hc5K 5/10 3L, Invincible Lad[8/1]8-13 Kevin Ghunowa 70 70
    21 October 2008 Lin 5St C5Hc2K 3/8 2¼L, Wibbadune[16/1]9-2 Kevin Ghunowa 72 61
    16 October 2008 Bri 5Gd C5Hc3K 7/8 4½L, Rocker[12/1]9-3 M C Geran 72 58
    29 September 2008 Bat 5GF C6Cl2K 3/12 5¼L, Dazed And Amazed[5/1]9-7tb Jamie Spencer 76 57
    22 September 2008 Lei 5Gd C4Hc4K 10/11 13L, Tony The Tap[16/1]9-1tb Pat Cosgrave 76 35
    12 September 2008 San 5Sft C4Hc5K 4/13 2L, Blessed Place[20/1]8-5tb Pat Cosgrave 77 77
    08 September 2008 Fol 5Sft C4Hc5K 7/7 17½L, Regal Royale[9/1]8-5tb Steve Drowne 77 12
    13 August 2008 San 5Sft C4Hc5K 5/9 4¼L, Judge ‘n Jury[5/1]9-1tb L Dettori 79 77
    04 August 2008 Wdr 5GS C5Hc2K 4/10 5¼L, Matterofact[6/1]8-5tb Pat Cosgrave 79 74
    03 August 2008 Nby 5Gd C4Hc4K 9/11 11L, Cheveton[10/1]9-10tb Jamie Spencer 79 33
    31 July 2008 Not 5GF C5Hc3K 1/10 1L, Feelin Foxy[12/1]9-6tb Pat Cosgrave 75 84
    23 July 2008 San 5GF C5Hc4K 5/11 2½L, Rocker[8/1]8-10tb Kevin Ghunowa 75 77
    12 July 2008 Asc 5GS C4Hc6K 6/9 4L, Cheveton[12/1]9-8tb Jamie Spencer 77 71
    01 July 2008 Thi 5GF C4Hc5K 8/9 5L, Baybshambles[20/1]8-7tb Stephen Donohoe 80 58
    15 June 2008 Sal 5GF C4Hc4K 7/11 3¾L, Osiris Way[25/1]9-13tb Kevin Ghunowa 83 80
    10 June 2008 Chs 5GF C4Hc5K 13/13 30L, Misaro[33/1]8-9tb N Callan 83
    23 May 2008 Hay 5GF C3Hc10K 6/8 6½L, Mondovi[8/1]9-0tb N Callan 85 70
    03 May 2008 Goo 5GS C3Hc7K 6/10 5L, Safari Mischief[7/1]8-5tb Kevin Ghunowa 86 79
    23 April 2008 Not 5GS C3Hc6K 4/9 1¼L, Chief Editor[12/1]9-3tb Kevin Ghunowa 87 85
    12 April 2008 Don 5Sft C2Hc10K 8/10 10L, Northern Fling[20/1]9-4tb Kevin Ghunowa 90 60
    13 March 2008 Sth 5St C2Hc10K 8/9 6¼L, Canadian Danehill[50/1]9-1tb Paul Fitzsimons 91 77

    July 14, 2009 at 17:37 in reply to: Private Handicapping #239574
    Avatar photoTheBluesBrother
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    I would be interested in seeing your ratings based upon each horses LTO at an All Weather course to see if it changes the reflection of the race.

    If I just used the LTO AW ratings of last night 6.20 at Wolverhampton the reflection of the race would have changed completely.
    I just looked at the last 3 runs as Mr Beyer does, and just recorded the best rating.
    I know that you should ignore what a horse has acheived on the turf when running on the AW, but it is the same with jumps horses when they improve 2 stone over fences and then run back over hurdles, they have to be backed.
    That is the idea behind the spreadsheet, the horse noted have all improved on their last runs.

    July 12, 2009 at 21:26 in reply to: Private Handicapping #239315
    Avatar photoTheBluesBrother
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    For those interested I have posted my figures for tomorrows evening meeting at Wolverhampton on my blog. New England looks a good bet in the first with a tissue of 12-1

    I had a look at the race at the Wolverhampton race and my top rated was MASTEROFCEREMONIES, and his 41/2 length 5th to Silvino, who hacked up Saturday has the form and draw to win here.
    NEW ENGLAND was rated 12lb behind on 57.

    MASTEROFCEREMONIES
    28May09 Ayr 10Gd C4Hc5K 8-4 5/9 4½L, Sirvino[20/1]9-8 Darren Moffatt

    69

    DEUCE
    01Jun09 Lei 12GF C53yHc2K 9-0 2/7 ¾L, Vita Mia[25/1]8-5b1 Stephen Carson

    67

    LYTHAM
    29Apr09 Kem 10St C5Hc2K 8-2 2/10 2L, Balnagore[6/1]8-13 Toby Atkinson

    67

    RESPLENDENT ACE
    28Jan09 Kem 12St C6Hc2K 9-8 7/12 8½L, Imperial Harry[5/1]9-7 Ian Mongan

    64

    July 11, 2009 at 15:58 in reply to: Private Handicapping #239127
    Avatar photoTheBluesBrother
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    I will put forward a system to use with my spreadsheet above, which might help somebody to find a few winners.

    Look out for any horse that according to my handicap ratings is 10+ or above on a recent outing, such as "Blue Jack" who ran at Windsor on the 6th July.
    In column H "MAX CLASS", Blue Jack’s max class is (C2) and if his next run is in a (C3) this is a bet.

    Just food for thought 8)

    July 6, 2009 at 17:23 in reply to: Private Handicapping #238151
    Avatar photoTheBluesBrother
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    I always question the use of weights when it comes to handicapping. I think that ‘Speed Handicapping’ is a far more accurate measure of a horses ability.

    I agree with your statement on speed handicapping because that is what I use, a combination of speed + class.
    To beat the offical handicapper you must find an edge and I use the Beyer method of not adjusting the ratings by weight carried, as it corrupts the ratings.
    Tonight at Windsor in the 8.00 (C4) 6th July the offical Handicapper has

    Resurge

    on a rating of 78 plus a 6lb penalty, I rated the horse at 96 which is a (C2) rating…this is what I call an edge.

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