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i have read many many books on this subject, and in my opinion one of the best is “horse racing is not about horse racing” by Norton Howells available from Amazon.
I have read hundreds of books on horse-racing over the years but the best I have ever read is “Horse racing is not about horse racing” now reprinted as “addicted to horse racing” by Norton Howells. try it and see
vindicated myself, backing 4 horses for a £42 profit, finishing 1st 2nd 4th and 5th. the horse that ran 3rd was the top weight from stall 6 Just us two. given a decent draw it must be backed next time out
sod’s law dictates, got the draw right and wrong horses, so far
backed stalls 11 and 12, won by 9 (14/1)
backed stall 16 won by 13 (13/2)
backed stall 9 won by ?i’m now covering myself by a little bit on stalls 8, 10 and 11
but if you find a bias, a draw bias for example or a statistical trend, you can easily cut a large field handicap to just a handful of runners with realistic chances
so i’m staying high: my bets are:
4.00 tumblewind and barnet fair
4.35 barkston ash
5.40 pearl acclaimas all races are covered by Racing UK or At the Races, why don’t ITV save a fortune on presenters and commentators and just pull it from whoever is showing and fronting. i’m sure that the odd saturday on ITV is for occasional punters and the serious ones watch Racing UK and ATR
thanks for that, but what is the point of a realignment if it simply shifts the bias from one side to the other? i see mr fahey’s won nice, but i’m going to watch the next before betting on the later races.
ripon tomorrow
so, thirsk again tomorrow. forecast going good/firm. anyone any views to bet high or low ?
if we are still looking for a front man/ presenter for the new ITV racing cover, what about Bob Cooper? personally i hope they take mick fitzgerald and get him off ATR and he can state the bleedin obvious over there and i can watch atr without hearing “make no mistake about it, if this horse is good enough he will win and if he’s not he won’t”
yes, i noticed the straight course ran centre to low instead of centre to high, but low on the shorter round course may pay off, as the two winners yesterday were both drawn low
i looked back in my database for those races, one was run on good and one on good/soft, but the times suggest they were 5 seconds or so slower than expected. incidentally, in one of those races those drawn high were all massive prizes, suggesting the draw was expected or all the crap horses were drawn high.
i was really saying that the races this season have had an unexpected and massive low draw bias. however given this knowledge for last week’s meeting and having watched the early races i was able to back the two winners of the 8.05 and 8.35 at 12/1 and 22/1. however in future when there may only be one race on the card on the straight course do i bet high or low ?
Kasparov – thanks for your input.
my study shows there is a draw bias at Ripon, but it depends on the number of runners. for example on the straight course in a 12 runner race those drawn low are in the centre of the course and those drawn high have the advantage of the stands rail. but when there are 16 or more runners then those drawn low can get over to the far rail and then have their draw bias. also at Ripon low drawn on the round course do well, especially front runners.
i agree about courses trying to eliminate the bias, i notice they tend to move the stalls about either centre or to the other side, if there is room. this is not usually mentioned on the racing page.
idle punter !!! i don’t think so. i spend hours and hours researching and reading form. and certainly do not expect anyone to do it for me. up until this season high draws held sway on the straight course at thirsk, but suddenly over the first 3 meetings the far side (low) has not only had the advantage but by a massive 20 lengths or so.
has no-one else noticed?
