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Hi,
result for 25/08:
Warwick 3.45 Squirtle 8th @ BSP $8.00
****As BSP is greater than $6.00 result will not be included****
No selections for 26/08
Hi,
result for 24/08:
Yarmouth 2.55 Sirens Party 9th @ BSP $3.40
MTD 15 lays 12 wins +3.76 points
Selection for 25/08:
Warwick 3.45 Squirtle
Hi,
results for 22/08:
Newbury 4.55 Wogan’s Sister 3rd @ BSP $5.47
Newbury 5.25 Gentle Guru 1st[/color:61vei3pc] @ BSP $4.30MTD 14 lays 11 wins +2.81 points
Selection for 24/08:
Yarmouth 2.55 Sirens Party
Hi,
result for 21/08:
Chester 6.10 First Avenue 3rd @ BSP $2.19
MTD 12 lays 10 wins +5.16 points
Selections for 22/08:
Newbury 4.55 Wogan’s Sister
Newbury 5.25 Gentle GuruHi,
results for 19/08:
Brighton 4.20 Limelight 3rd @ BSP $3.40
Brighton 4.50 Steig 9th @ BSP $5.00result for 20/08:
Folkestone 7.25 Royal Sovereign 8th @ BSP $0.00 (BSP site not updated, but SP was 7/1)
MTD 11 lays 9 wins +4.21 points
Selection for 21/08:
Chester 6.10 First Avenue
Hi,
selection for 20/08:
Folkestone 7.25 Royal Sovereign
Yesterdays results will be updated tomorrow.
Hi,
results for 18/08:
Yarmouth 6.50 Kimono My House 6th @ BSP $3.10
Yarmouth 7.20 Jennie Jerome 1st[/color:2lmn5jhx] @ BSP $3.20MTD 9 lays 7 wins +2.31 points
Selections for 19/08:
Brighton 4.20 Limelight
Brighton 4.50 SteigIn response to Grasshopper:
“If you are introducing an arbitrary and undefinable concept such as ‘value’ to determine when and where to lay, doesn’t it make your claimed “statistical” approach redundant?”
No, because they work together. The statistical approach is used to determine which forecast favourite horses are likely to be beaten by their opposition. Just because we have determined a selection which is statistically likely to lose doesn’t mean we lay it any price thats available.The price you lay them at will ultimately determine your return on investment.
E.g – For arguments sake our lays win say 80% of the time. After 100 selections you have returned 80 x 0.95 (5% commission) = +76 points. Now say our average losing lay price is $10.00. The losing 20 selections means we will pay out 20 x 9.00 (liability = price -1) = -180 points. Overall +76-180 = -104 points.
Now consider this. Our average losing lay price is now $4.00. The 20 losing selections means we pay out 20 x 3.00 (liability) = -60 points. Overall +76 – 60 = +16 points.
The example is exagerated but it highlights the importance of price, which many people do not take into consideration.
Hi,
result for 14/08:
Salisbury 4.50 Night Rocket 1st @ BSP $3.14
MTD 7 lays 6 wins +3.56 points
Selections for 18/08
Yarmouth 6.50 Kimono My House
Yarmouth 7.20 Jennie JeromeIn response to Sberry:
“How would you know that the betfair SP is going to be over 6.00 before the race, to avoid you laying it?”
You don’t. You set the SP odds limit when placing your bet. SP odds limit allows you to set the odds limits that you are prepared to accept for a SP bet. Your bet only gets matched if the Betfair SP is within the limits you have set. If the odds fall outside your limit your bet will not be placed or matched.
“You can’t expect to put up lays but ignore the winners for some reason and pretend to claim a profit, that’s ridiculous.”
I’m not ignoring the losing lays. I’m just trying to draw a line as to what qualifies as an acceptable lay price on Betfair. You must apply the concept of value or you will lose in the long term, which is why there must be a limt as to what price you lay at. I can’t tell you or monitor what the Betfair lay price just before the off would be. If you don’t want to use BSP then use SP. If the horses SP is greater than 4/1, then don’t lay it. Anything higher than 4/1 SP is usually greater than or around $6.00 on Betfair. But I dont want to introduce the argument of SP versus Betfair prices for laying beacause that would inflate the results. Or if you don’t like that use SP + 20% for an approximate betfair lay price. But then why would I approximate or guess what a Betfair lay price would be when we can just use Betfair SP. It’s fair, can be monitored and is obtainable by everyone.
Hi,
result for 13/08:
Beverley 3.45 Let It Be 1st @ BSP $6.20
*****As BSP is greater than $6.00 result is not included*****
Selection for 14/08:
Salisbury 4.50 Night Rocket
Hi,
result for 12/08:
Musselburgh 8.10 Horatio Carter 2nd @ BSP $4.90
MTD 6 lays 6 wins +5.70 points to level stakes.
Selection for 13/08:
Beverley 3.45 Let It Be
Hi,
result for 11/08:
Thirsk 7.30 Jaconet 5th @ BSP $4.91
MTD 5 lays 5 wins +4.75 points to level stakes
Selection for 12/08:
Musselburgh 8.10 Horatio Carter
Hi,
results for 09/08:
Ascot 1.45 Summer Gold 4th @ BSP $6.40
Newmarket 2.40 Voice Coach 7th @ BSP $7.00***As prices are greater than $6.00 results will not be included*****
Selection for 11/09:
Thirsk 7.30 Jaconet
Hi,
result for 07/08 Haydock 4.10 Woodcutter 6th @ BSP $3.19
MTD 4 lays 4 wins +3.80 points to level stakes
Selections for 09/08:
Ascot 1.45 Summer Gold
Newmarket 2.40 Voice CoachHi,
results for previous days are:
04/08 Ripon 3.45 Buddy Holly 3rd @ BSP $5.31
04/08 Ripon 4.45 Master Nimbus 3rd @ BSP $3.60
06/08 Brighton 3.00 Hawk House 2nd @ BSP $4.10MTD 3 lays 3 wins +2.85 pts to level stakes
Selection for 07/08 Haydock 4.10 Woodcutter
Hi,
*****this month any selections with BSP greater than $6.00 will not be included in results*****
Selctions for Monday Ripon 3.45 Buddy Holly
Ripon 4.45 Master NimbusHi,
result for Redcar 2.40 Chin Wag 5th @ BSP $7.22
MTD 14 lays 8 wins -18.76 points to level stakes.
Last selection for the month Nottingham 2.40 Invincible Lad
“surely that’s 8 wins ?”
No sberry, a win is a winning bet, not a winning horse. We wouldn’t want a losing mentality with a losing bet noted as a win now would we.
“with any of these systems, particularly one with statistical in the title, the statistics should be 100% accurate”
As with forums sberry, particularly with multiple posts, it’s important to read it and be able to follow it 100%.
