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My recent experiences at backing losers leads me to the conclusion that at Kempton you need to be backing horses with a mid to high draw at any distance.
Don’t take this as gospel – just my personal experience.
Mostly good stuff that everyone should take in.
The Kelly Criterion sounds fine, but if I read it correctly it very much depends on how much of an edge you have.
In horse racing this is very subjective.
I work out my own speed handicap ratings that I think give me an edge- but does it ? – and if so how much of an edge ?
If I think a horse has a 50% chance of winning and the odds are 3-1 I will bet accordingly.
Similarly if I think a horse has a 20% chance of winning and the odds are 3-1 I won’t bet.
Who is to say my analysis is correct ?
If you analyse form in the traditional method of collaterel form do you have an edge ? especially as most other punters work on the same principles ?
I agree that your bets should reflect your thoughts on the chances of it winning but these are your thoughts and not mathematical certainties.
I personally believe in keeping things simple and bet no more than 5% of my bank on any one horse and I only have two stake levels, 5% to win and 2.5% for e/w bets.
Wolverhampton 6.55 Haftohaf
Won 5/4 (3-1 when posted)
Poor Sp but better than a loser.
