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The Geelong Cup is tomorrow – a Group 3 race in Victoria’s second largest city.
Automatic entry to the Melbourne Cup for the winner – and Bauer is an acceptor.
Meanwhile, I know about All The Good’s poor fresh form but improved form when "second-up" and I’ll be spouting it somehow to the locals …
I can tell you that since All The Good’s win the local media are close enough to waving the white flag. It’s my intentions to settle the dust!
Bauer will need to win well enough to get a penalty. The Geelong Cup winner usually gets a penalty but this race is not an automatic qualifying race.
The point however is he would be rated far superior than ATG or MR.
There have been other super stayers that have come to our shores but left empty handed.
This adds to the intrigue of racing, the different circumstances that can turn the norm upside down and leave us with the question, How did that happen?
Septimus has been reported in the press over here as past the post!
It’s not the first time, Oscar Schindler was to win the Cup by the length of the straight,
I had Saintly in the Cox Plate doubled into OS and thought the collect was a formality. OS failed and Saintly won the double to add insult to injury.OK , so i’m a lucky bugger this time (and I know it!), but I used to have so much faith in line breeding and dosage.
I have reverted to my own eye’s being the best judge and it has paid massive dividends with All The Good.
Dosage = too dour for Caulfield Cup
Line Breeding = nothing to get excited about!
Eye’s = The Newburgh Win exposed the possibilities.My share in our horse by the name of, you guessed it "Snooperclyde" fits all the ticks with line breeding dosage etc.
The three other horses with very good LB & D have been useless ahhh!!!Just an indication these factors are.
Has anyone got a similar story?
Would OTG and MR be around 15-30/1 against Septimus at 3200 over there?
Is that a fair assessment ?
Melbourne Cup Winners History 1-2-3
http://melbournecup.racingandsports.com … up-winners
While International wins in the MC stands at 3 the above link reflects the impact they have with 13 places since Vintage crop won in 1993.
13/45 possible places = 29% this is vg considering the amount of runners v’s the locals.Last two years has produced 4/6 places at 67%.
[b:3oz7bjyl]Will this year produce the first three placings and create history?[/[/b:3oz7bjyl]size]
Melbourne Cup penalties to Caulfield Cup Winners since 1991 has produced four Winners.
2001 Ethereal 4m, 2kg penalty carried 52kg in MC
1997 Might and Power 4g, 3.5 kg penalty carried 56kg in MC
1995 Doriemus 5g, 3kg penalty carried 54.5 in MC
1991 Let’s Elope 4m, 2.5kg penalty carried 51kgCUP PENALTY ISSUED TO ALL THE GOOD
Racing Victoria’s Chief Handicapper Greg Carpenter today issued a 2kg penalty to All The Good for the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) following his win in the Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) on Saturday.The penalty takes the Godolphin galloper’s Cup weight to 55kg as he strives to become the first internationally trained horse to complete the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double in the same year, a feat achieved by 11 Australasian horses in the rich history of the two Cups.
In issuing the penalty Carpenter said “All The Good has emerged as a stayer of the highest quality in his last two runs winning the Newburgh Handicap in England and now the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. Although there was only 2.5 lengths between the first seven runners home on Saturday and a number of his rivals produced outstanding Melbourne Cup trials, All The Good was impressive in victory and should be further suited over the longer distance at Flemington.
“In determining the penalty I was also mindful that the Melbourne Cup represents a new challenge with the two best stayers in the world, Septimus and Efficient, set to run along with a number of other quality entrants who did not contest the Caulfield Cup.
Baughurst, which convincingly won the Group 3 David Jones Cup (2000m) at Caulfield on Saturday has been issued with a 0.5kg penalty, taking his Melbourne Cup weight to 51kg and lifting the Bill Wilde-trained seven-year-old from 42 to 36 in the latest elimination order.
Carpenter said ”Baughurst has won twice since weights were released as well as being placed in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) and The Bart Cummings (2500m). He was a dominant winner last Saturday in recording his first victory at Group level.”
Third declarations close at 12 noon Monday October 27.
The following link has the latest elemination order for the MC.
http://www1.racingvictoria.net.au/image … %20Oct.pdfC/O racingvictoria.net.au
I don’t think All The Good will stay the distance in what is likely to be a very quickly run race.
It’s not coincidental that Aidan chose three Montjeus! Well, IMO anyway.
So I like Nom Du Jeu big time!
ATG has more Stamina in his pedigree than Septimus.
He had previously had 7 attemps at 12 furlongs for 1 win no places, and has only one career win at less than 12f.
3 wins at 14f suggests he was more of a risk in the CC.
Mc no problem, the CC run will top him off nicely.Mad Rush was all over ATG after the post, but if Kerrin holds ATG until the clock tower in the MC he will sprint clear IMO.
ATG three wide the journey, was entitled to get tired last furlong.
Littorio was following ATG but could not match his turn of foot and beaten into 5th.
10/1 great value but will shorten over next few days as realisation of just how good ATG’s run really was.Weekend Hussler is now likely to head to the paddock after failing to stay in the Caulfield Cup.
His trainer Ross McDonald said he will be set for races up to a mile in the future where he has proven to be far superior to his rivals.
Mixed feelings- as you all know I’m all over All the Good for the Melbourne Cup like a rash, but did I chuck even a fifty on him at the monster odds for Caulfield? I think you can guess. Convinced yet Mr Deering?
BTW I can’t rmember if he gets a penalty for the Cup? Does he, and if so how much?ATG likely to get 2kg penalty
The winner of the CC has been successful in taking the MC double.
The advantage ATG and Mad Rush have over their compatriots cannot be underestimated. Proof they have taken no harm from the travel and been able to produce their good form was evidenced today.
I will be jumping for joy with you if ATG wins the MC.
I was lucky enough to have won on him in the CC.
Cheers
PeterI’m just saying Snooper – these guys are not idiots.
Substantial money for Mad Rush this morning. I don’t see the reasoning but prove me wrong.
It is up to Mad Rush to do the proving MD.
I have him in my top five, rated above Weekend Hussler etc.Extract from the Godolphin website
Saeed bin Suroor, the Godolphin trainer, said: "All The Good did his main work before leaving for Australia and he had a good blow-out recently.
"He is ready to go and we hope he runs well to give encouragement for the Emirates Melbourne Cup which is his main target.
"He has a nice draw and I hope Kerrin will be able to get a good position in the race."
The Godolphin horse, who races from draw seven rather than eight because of the scratching of another runner, comes up against 17 rivals in the BMW Caulfield Cup, including seven-time Group One winner Weekend Hussler, recent Group One Turnbull Stakes victor Littorio, British raider Mad Rush and Master O’Reilly, who took this race last year.
Kerrin McEvoy added: "All The Good has had quite an easy season as far as starts are concerned and he comes here a really fresh horse.
"He felt good the other morning when I rode him and has drawn a nice barrier as well."
Back to back is rarely achieved although Master O’reilly is reportedly much stronger this year and his last run was very good.
A second to none chance!A respected tipster has aired his concern that there is not much pace in this race. So the front runners Maldivian and Boundless hay be in this race for a long way, throw them in any multiples.
Statistically barriers 1-6 have won 49% of the time therefore Red Ruler, Ice Chariot, Douro Valley, Fiumicino, Boundless and Zagreb have an advantage.My Tips
Littorio, Master O’reilly, All The Good, Boundless and Mad Rush
Weekend Hussler will go for all three if he runs well in the CC.
There is serious doubt in racing circles about his ability to stay, infact a friend of mine has offered to fly me and my family across the country to spend a week in melbourne FREE if the Hussler wins the Caulfield Cup.
A great offer but I don’t think I have any chance of collecting.The inside word from Sandown racecourse is that All The Good has thrived since arriving and the informant believes he will run very well in the CC.
This should prepare him well for the MC.
Mad Rush mas been working well but the mail is to wait for him in the MC.Littorio and last years winner Master O’reilly are the two locals expected to fight out the finish and the New Zealand mare Boundless has been thrown around as a tip but the word is she did not travel well to Australia and may be a better chance in the MC.
Just a question but how is barrier 8 a bad draw?
The best barriers according to Aust are between 4 – 10.Leading Home
Tesiopower does have an error!
I cross checked through bloodhound and Leading Home’s dam is Marching Home not Bounding Home as in Tesiopower.Venusian you do your research thoroughly. Few readers would have taken the time to check the pedigree. A mark of respect you deserve.
