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It wasn’t a bad ride, as said before, if you stop the tape just before Encke kicks, Joseph has them all covered. He would have seen every jockey off the bridle and would have been very confident. Suddenly, Encke does something no one expects and bursts clear. Joseph then rides along in vain and the horse steadily stays on but doesn’t get there.
It’s just a really average year.
Camelot won the Guineas through stamina (many horses kicked too early), took a while to hit top gear in the Derby to beat Astrology and Main Sequence and then won a poor Irish Derby. Perhaps O’Brien genuinely thought it was a far easier task than it was. Who knows. The only criticism I can think of, is that Joseph didn’t wind the horse up and let him gradually hit top gear.
I believe, if the race was re-run, Joseph would take him to the outside and slowly start winding him up from further back, and he’d win. That’s hindsight, though!
Ginger, we’ll agree to disagree regarding Frankel as a 3yo. Although I think it’s funny that you mention he was tiring in the last half of the Guineas and didn’t win going away. I’d like to point out that he was over 10l clear at half-way. He displayed speed and tremendous stamina. I think the race possibly clouds people’s judgement regarding the horse’s stamina. I can see why, but I don’t believe it. He still looked strong at the finish, you’d expect any horse to tire after setting such a pace.
Do you not possibly believe that the horse could just be so good, that he has all the speed of a 5f sprinter combined with the ability to stay a mile and a half?
Had the horse cruised through as he did in the QE2, and ran on to win going away, the Derby would have been on everyone’s lips. Guaranteed. I still hold the belief that the horse has so much in hand that he could be as keen as Sea the Stars was in his Arc and still win easily.
Also, just for the record, I’m not sure who that person is you mentioned, definitely not me!
Shaun
Ginger, it’s all well and good applying normal logic to races (keen horses might expend too much energy early on), but the simple fact with Frankel, is that you can allow for that and safely know he will still be too good for his rivals.
The horse would, without any doubt whatsoever, stay a mile and a half strongly. He is just a unique specimen blessed with almighty speed, tremendous strength and raw power.
We’re talking about a horse who won a very strong maiden as a two year old, on very soft ground, finishing full of running over a mile. If you want to point out other races as proof that he wouldn’t have got a mile and a half as a three-year old, I’d be happy to offer my reasoning as to why he would have.
Normal logic doesn’t apply to Frankel.
Shaun
Come off it Shaun, had Frankel ran like he did in the Guineas or Greenham there’s around a 95% certainty he would not have won at a mile and a half. (There’s no "proof" in racing).
If Frankel settles in the Arc as well as he did in the International then I’d expect him to stay the Arc trip. But the Arc is often a rough race, what if Frankel gets bumped around early on? He’s never been jostled before. If he’s say 1/6 fav then everyone will be trying to beat him. Frankel settled well in a truly run 1m2f, but there is no guarantee he’ll settle in a slowly run 1m4f race. If he’s free in a 1m4f race then he may (and I only say "may") not get home.
Don’t get me wrong Shaun, I believe Frankel will now (after all Sir Henry and his team’s work) probably stay 1m4f. At York he was still going away at the line. But there are several degrees of being free or even pulling, if it is not too bad then he’ll still stay. I’m just saying it is no gimmie.I just can’t agree at all. Firstly you point to a seasonal starting point he clearly would not have been ready for. Of course he was going to be keen. He would obviously not have been ridden in the Derby the way he was in the Guineas. In the Guineas they wanted a no nonsense race, get Frankel into a rhythm and let him kill them off using his long but conservative stride. He displayed more stamina in that race than you are seeing.
Frankel has infact been jostled before, take a look at the Dewhurst. He got bumped coming out of the stalls which immediately set him alight. He still won the race, pushed out hands and heels and was the only horse in the race to feature having been held-up. Everything was wrong for him but he won easily.
If the Arc was slowly run he’d outspeed them and win easily. Even if he was keen. He is too good no matter how much energy he expends. If the Arc is strongly run, he’ll settle easily and still win easily. It is obviously not going to be slowly run seeing as they will try exposing chinks in his stamina, and if by some miracle it is slowly run, it will play into his hands.
Ginger, it’s all well and good applying normal logic to races (keen horses might expend too much energy early on), but the simple fact with Frankel, is that you can allow for that and safely know he will still be too good for his rivals.
The horse would, without any doubt whatsoever, stay a mile and a half strongly. He is just a unique specimen blessed with almighty speed, tremendous strength and raw power.
We’re talking about a horse who won a very strong maiden as a two year old, on very soft ground, finishing full of running over a mile. If you want to point out other races as proof that he wouldn’t have got a mile and a half as a three-year old, I’d be happy to offer my reasoning as to why he would have.
Normal logic doesn’t apply to Frankel.
Shaun
