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US Army Ranger loses the race approaching 3f out when he is trapped behind a couple of horses, has to pulled out widest while Harzand has already made his move. USAR must make up 5 lengths between the 2f and 1f pole but can’t sustain it against the more professional and strong stayer Harzand. With the experience gained and in a smaller field Irish Derby, I would fancy him to reverse the form with the winner, especially on quicker ground.
Ah well, I got the right owner, trainer, jockey even the right sire. Just the most important bit wrong, the horse. So much for the Leger Mr Weld!
Even done me on the day of the race, backed the 2nd! Haha
Hello everybody, after a few month’s of reading and enjoying everybody’s thoughts, especially the build up to Cheltenham, I’ve decided to take the plunge and contribute. I’ve recently been backing Tirmizi ante post for The Derby at 50’s 33’s and 25’s. Tomorrow is obviously make or break for my particular fancy. I decided to back Tirmizi after his debut win at leopardstown, Stellar Mass was rated 102 going into this race after his previous 1 length defeat to Port Douglas in the Beresford. Tirmizi beat him a length and a quarter. Admittedly Stellar Mass has gone backwards. But I thought this indicated a decent level of ability from Tirmizi. Weld also had the Beresford runner up True Solitaire as a yardstick. Then Harzand wins the Ballysax beating a few O’Brien nags, with only Idaho making a race of it. This was run on heavy going in April and Harzand did have a previous run under his belt. In his stable tour Weld describes Harzand as a “potentially nice staying type”. After his Ballysax win the stable said He was not a Derby horse, but hopefully a st leger type. Now Weld has won the derrinstown trial 8 times, including twice in the last decade, Casual Conquest 7-2f 3rd in New Approachs Derby and Fascinating Rock, who was well beaten at Epsom by Australia, but who has since proved himself a group 1 winner. This may indicate that Tirmizi is very highly regarded, in the stable tour, Tirmizi is described as a magnificent big horse, who is over 16 hands and 500 kg. A big long striding horse who they are in no rush with. He states he is pleasing them and the Derrinstown is his intended starting point. Now the fact that he has 2 horses Harzand rated 110 and True Solitaire rated 108 in the yard, he must have an idea where he stands given Tirmizi is rated 92. Beacon Rock is 109 Idaho 108 along with Shogun. Tirmizi is the least exposed horse in the race and reading between a few lines, I think there is a case for him in a so far uninspiring week of Trials. In the stable tour, Weld uses the word magnificent twice, the other horse to receive this label was Zawraq, who would have been in the first 3 in the betting for last years Derby but for injury! Dermot is not a man for hyperbole. I’m hoping he is also due some luck after Zawraq and Free Eagle both having curtailed 3yo campaigns. Here’s hoping I don’t fall flat on my face in a days time on my first post!
Also I think Ryan Moore is riding Shogun instead of Idaho because they know he won’t be riding either at Epsom. He has a choice of Midterm, US Army Ranger and maybe Minding. It makes sense for Heffernan to ride Idaho as he could be the stables second or third string on Derby day.
