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Gary Moore at Folkestone has 14 wins from 98 runs (14.3%) and 40 places (40.8%) so after Jim Best he has the best strike-rate of all the trainers in the race at the track. HARLEQUINN DANCER is a flat-bred 3yo which he does well with, it’s in the favoured price range and it hasn’t run in 29 days so at 3/1 may be worth a bet in the 1:50 at Folkestone and I have him top-rated on my ratings also.
Here is something I put together earlier this year on Gary Moore on my blog which has helped me a lot to make a profit on his runners, especially at Plumpton on Monday
[b:34chyxo6]GL Moore – Trainer Analysis 2000-2008[/b:34chyxo6]
I’m kicking off with Gary Moore. He is a straight-talking trainer I have a lot of time for and his horses are always trying. I’ve analysed some of his key stats between 2000 and 2008 and have made some interesting discoveries.
Has generally improved his number of winners each year, with 2006 being a blip, simply because he didn’t get as many big-priced winners in the past and also because that was the year where he had the most amount of runners. 2007 is the first year you would have made a profit by backing all his runners blindly.
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[b:34chyxo6]10 Best Courses
[/b:34chyxo6]
As we can see his local tracks would appear to be Fontwell and Plumpton, the latter in particular showing a very healthy profit and he also does well at Taunton and Ludlow where he has a near 30% strike-rate.http://bp2.blogger.com/_8ViSSO31nS4/R4h … course.jpg
[b:34chyxo6]10 Worse Courses[/b:34chyxo6]
As we can see below, his horses seem to really struggle on the better grade tracks. Ok, he does get a few winners but it would appear from this that he does have a tendency to over-face his horses somewhat at the bigger tracks. Kempton and Newbury in particular are two of his bogey-tracks while at Cheltenham and Aintree he only has a total of 6 wins from 128 runners. This situation may improve with time but it’s well worth noting.
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[b:34chyxo6]Days Since A Run[/b:34chyxo6]
Does very well with horses returning from very long abscences as you can see from the chart below and this is probably the most interesting bit of information we can gain from this exercise with a massive 323pts profit over the last 8 years backing his horses running after a 35+ day absence.
Does not do well with horses having first ever run for him – with just 5 wins from 63 qualifiers.
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[b:34chyxo6]Odds[/b:34chyxo6]
If you fancy a Gary Moore outsider then you are in deep trouble. Obviously bigger priced horses win less often than fancied runners but his record is particularly shocking in this respect. Has a very good strike-rate on his odds-on shots but not enough to turn a profit and it may be worth concentrating on his runners between the 85/40 and 6/1 mark. Although returning a small loss, selective betting in this range using some of the other stats mentioned in this article could prove profitable. For example, if you exclude his 10 worse courses and concentrate on his 85/40 > 6/1 shots everywhere else then you would have achieved a 33pts profit.
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[b:34chyxo6]
Handicaps[/b:34chyxo6]Better in non-handicaps than handicaps but hardly surprising considering h/c’s are almost always more competitive.
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[b:34chyxo6]Race Type[/b:34chyxo6]
Slightly better strike-rate with his hurdlers than chasers although the losses are less. Also worth noting whenever he has one entered in a claimer as he shows a small profit there and a 20% strike-rate.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_8ViSSO31nS4/R4h … e-type.jpg
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[b:34chyxo6]Age[/b:34chyxo6]
Only 8 wins from 89 runners aged 10+, generally does well with 3yo’s 14.67% s/r but you would have lost over 200pts if you had backed all his 4yo’s blinding since 2000. His 5yo’s fair much better.
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[b:34chyxo6]Jockey
[/b:34chyxo6]
Tony McCoy (surprise) has a 31% strike-rate on Moore runners and Richard Johnson has a 27% s/r so keep ‘em peeled when either of these get the leg-up on Moore runners. Stable-jock Jamie Moore has 12.89%, Mattie Batchelor 13.01% and Phillip Hide 13.61%. Batchelor, McCoy and Richard Johnson are the only 3 that would show a profit. Backing Jamie Moore blindly would see you 300pts down but hardly surprising a he rides most of the horses.http://bp2.blogger.com/_8ViSSO31nS4/R4h … -jocks.jpg
[b:34chyxo6]Time of Year[/b:34chyxo6]
Does well during April/May but watch out for his runners from November through to January ! I suspect this is because he generally does well with flat-breds who may prefer the better ground in the early-mid part of the year although that is purely a hunch.
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[b:34chyxo6]Owners[/b:34chyxo6]
His top-10 owners in terms of P&L with more than 2 winners
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[b:34chyxo6]Sire[/b:34chyxo6]
His top-10 P&L Sires. I always like to see how well a trainer does with stock of a particular sire. Worth noting that Moore has done particularly well from both a strike-rate and a profit point of view from flat-bred animals over the jumps.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_8ViSSO31nS4/R4h … e-sire.jpg
[b:34chyxo6]Summary[/b:34chyxo6]
Gary Moore I believe is an excellent trainer to follow, particularly at the aforementioned top-10 courses where he seems to excel.
By far the most interesting stat though is his record of runners appearing after an absence of more than 35 days and even longer spells in particular. This tends to imply that he does better when he has time to work with a horse and that he always makes sure they are ready to run close to their best first time up. Conversely, it also applies that his runners tend to need time between races.
The most interesting stat after that (for me) is his record with flat-bred types. Unfuwain, Montjeu, Robellino, Double Trigger etc were all decent animals on the flat and he seems to know what to do to get the best out of their progeny so bear this in mind when contemplating a bet.
Also, take note when McCoy or Johnson are booked for one of his rides. Mattie Batchelor’s rides are perhaps overpriced as his strike-rate is half as good as these two top jocks but backing his mounts returns a fair profit.
The time of year is also key, Moore seems to do well very early/or late in the jumps season, in particular April and May. He also seems to do well in August and September but his form does appear to tail off a little after this.
His top-owners could be worth tracking, for example watch out for the Fontwell Park partnership when they have a runner at Fontwell or indeed one of the other owners if they have a runner at one of his favourite courses.
Pay attention to his 3-year old runners but watch out as his 4yo’s show quite a big loss backed blindly.
Finally, selective backing of his runners priced between 85/40 and 6/1 could prove profitable, ie. Combined with one of his better courses, flat-bred types, owner, aforementioned jockeys etc.
Hope you have enjoyed this, have a look at this article on Gary Moore from 1999 in the Racing Post…made me laugh with his colourful language and forthright opinions.
Gary Moore Racing Post article -:
