[non vintage]

In essence, I use dosage figures as an additional factor to take into consideration in certain circumstances. These tend to be good quality races for relatively unexposed horses over 12 furlongs or more. In weaker heats, a horse which doesn’t stay may be able to win because it is easily better than the other runners and stamina never comes into question. Dosage would probably confuse the issue here.

In this instance, my opinions would have been prejudiced as I know the result, so I have only produced dosage figures. Normally I would do a little bit more digging and come up with some sort of cross-analysis (as I did for the Derby).

Given just this table, my response would probably be to put a line blindly through those horses (3 in this race) at the very bottom of the list (i.e. those that are very unlikely to stay). I would then place a big tick next to those at the top of the list (normally anything rated over 90, and certainly anything over 95), and a question mark against the remainder.

That would be the extent of my reliance on this information by itself. In conjunction with other factors, such as form, commentaries, speed ratings and available prices, I would probably refer back to the dosage list.

Ultimately, the fact that we all use different factors when assessing a race, and interpret similar factors in a variety of ways has to be a good thing. It should encourage us to continually strive to improve our own analysis and to learn about and assess other people’s techniques. Additionally, it means that when you reach a definite conclusion and strongly fancy a particular horse, this horse is not necessarily an odds on shot. If we all relied on exactly the same selection criteria, it would be!

Finally, I am a crime analyst with a weird and perverted love of all things involving number crunching, statistics, and Excel spreadsheets. This may go some way towards explaining why I like dosage theory!

[non vintage]

Escorial and others who might be interested, from a purely academic point of view obviously…

Here is some dosage analysis for the horses involved in the Prix du Jockey-Club last weekend. They are listed in order from greatest dosage-predicted stamina downwards, using the same programme and statistics as I used for the Epsom Derby runners’ dosage figures.

SULAMANI – 104.3   (10.2f:12.5f)<br>DIAGHILEV – 102.9   (9.8f:11.8f)<br>SIMEON – 101.6   (9.7f:11.8f)<br>MARTALINE – 101.6   (10.5f:12.5f)<br>ACT ONE – 98.4   (9.3f:11.8f)<br>GREAT PRETENDER – 96.5   (9.5f:11.5f)<br>BLACK SAM BELLAMY – 96.0   (8.5f:10.8f)<br>WITHOUT CONNEXION – 89.7   (8.4f:10.5f)<br>KHALKEVI – 88.3   (8.9f:11.0f)<br>LOUVETEAU – 88.3   (8.2f:10.3f)<br>LE FOU – 85.0   (8.4f:10.6f)<br>ALVARINHO – 83.6   (8.1f:10.7f)<br>POLITIES – 75.7   (7.6f:9.7f)<br>TEMPLE OF ARTEMIS – 65.1   (7.1f:9.3f)<br>CASTLE GANDOLFO – 47.6   (6.4f:8.5f)

There was more stamina present here than in our Derby. The last 13 runners left in at Epsom scored an average of 79.1 on my index, compared with 88.3 in France. The average suggested maximum suitable distance for the French runners was 10.9 furlongs, nearly half a furlong further than for Epsom (10.5f). Furthermore, the French race featured 7 horses with a rating over 95 (which I would deem very likely stayers), and 3 with a rating under 80 (doubtful stayers). This was in contrast with the English Derby, which, using the same criteria, contains just 4 very likely stayers and 6 doubtful stayers!

But this is all slightly by-the-by, and we need to come back to your originial question Escorial, about whether dosage theory might have put you off backing a winner in this case.

SULAMANI is (or rather, was :( ) one of seven horses in the field with an abundance of (dosage-based) stamina in its pedigree, and actually came out top of my ratings. If we had had this discussion last week, I would have done two things, the first of which would have been to inform/reassure you that Sulamani was virtually guaranteed to stay 12 furlongs at Group One pace, and the second would have been to stick a tenner on the bloody thing! Ho-Hum! :)  

nb: I meant to add that the first five horses home in the French Derby were from the top seven in the list (all rated over 95!)…

(Edited by non vintage at 9:43 pm on June 6, 2002)

[non vintage]

Thanks Mesh!

I also think that Tholjanah may need the run, although the yard seem to have made a more solid start than usual this year.

Having flicked through some of the earlier posts on this thread, I see that Steve M appears to have reached almost exactly the same conclusion, which is quite interesting.

I almost feel confident for once (probably the kiss of death)! We should be guaranteed a half-decent price now that Mick Kinane has opted for Hawk Wing, so roll on Saturday!

[non vintage]

Here is some analysis of the thirteen horses left in Saturday’s Derby.

As stamina tends to be one of the greatest factors in identifying potential Derby winners, the first part of my analysis involved looking at the form shown by all the runners (including race readers’ comments) and guesstimating what I imagine their most effective distance range will be. This is by no means an exact science, but I have found that establishing this type of guideline can prove invaluable. In essence, what I am saying is that within this range, I would be reasonably confident that the horse will be able to show its ability, based on what he has already achieved.

Listed from most guesstimated stamina to least…

FIGHT YOUR CORNER (10f:12f)<br>HIGH CHAPARRAL (9f:12f)<br>{ COSHOCTON (9f:11f)  <br>{ THOLJANAH (9f:11f)

FRANKIES DREAM (9f:10f)<br>BANDARI (8f:10f)<br>{ MOON BALLAD (8f:9f)<br>{ JELANI (8f:9f)<br>{ LOUISVILLE (8f:9f)<br>{ WHERE OR WHEN (8f:9f)<br>> HAWK WING (7f:9f)<br>> DUBAI DESTINATION (7f:9f)<br>NAHEEF (7f:8f)

<br>Secondly, and still on stamina, based purely on Dosage information fed through my spreadsheet "shredder", these are my ratings for each runner, along with what (my computer’s interpretation of) the Dosage indices suggest would be their most effective distance.

Listed from greatest stamina to least…

HIGH CHAPARRAL – 105.8 (10.2f:12.4f)<br>THOLJANAH – 104.9 (11.0f:13.1f)<br>JELANI – 100.9 (9.9f:12.5f)<br>FIGHT YOUR CORNER – 99.4 (9.8f:12.0f)

MOON BALLAD – 92.8 (8.9f:11.1f)<br>COSHOCTON – 86.0 (8.2f:10.2f)<br>NAHEEF – 76.8 (7.8f:9.9f)<br>WHERE OR WHEN – 76.4 (8.0f:10.2f)<br>HAWK WING – 74.5 (7.5f:9.8f)<br>FRANKIES DREAM – 59.1 (7.0f:9.0f)<br>DUBAI DESTINATION – 58.1 (6.8f:8.9f)<br>LOUISVILLE – 56.5 (6.9f:9.0f)<br>BANDARI – 37.0 (6.4f:8.4f)

<br>Finally, I ranked each horse on the level of form shown, based upon it’s highest topspeed ratings.

Listed from best proven form downwards…

HAWK WING<br>HIGH CHAPARRAL<br>NAHEEF<br>WHERE OR WHEN

BANDARI<br>MOON BALLAD<br>FIGHT YOUR CORNER<br>DUBAI DESTINATION<br>THOLJANAH<br>JELANI<br>COSHOCTON<br>FRANKIES DREAM<br>LOUISVILLE

<br>By combining each prospective runner’s rankings according to each of the above three ‘measures’, I have ended up with a final ‘order’ for the race. This should now take into account the likelihood of the horses getting the trip and the level of their proven ability, I hope. (The distances do reflect the relative combined rankings quite closely, but are included primarily to keep me amused!)

<br> 1        HIGH CHAPARRAL

2   3l   FIGHT YOUR CORNER

3   1l   THOLJANAH

4   3l   MOON BALLAD

5   nk   WHERE OR WHEN

6   2l   COSHOCTON

7  dht   JELANI

8   hd   HAWK WING

9   4l   NAHEEF

10  2l   BANDARI

11  7l   FRANKIES DREAM

12  6l   DUBAI DESTINATION

13  6l   LOUISVILLE

(Edited by non vintage at 12:16 am on June 4, 2002)

[non vintage]

i will examine some more derby runners when i get a spare hour, but i have run HAWK WING’s pedigree through my dosage analysis program.

i have to agree with the view that, in all likelihood, his best trip is likely to be less than 12 furlongs (7.5f – 9.8f to be precise). he may be sufficiently classy to get to the front early in the straight, but i would imagine that he will find nothing in the last furlong, and it will be a case of trying him trying to hold on. i think the only way he will win is if he does shoot clear quite early on and establish a 4 or 5 length lead – if he is held up (as is often preferred with doubtful stayers) i think his stamina could fail before he is able to utilise his class and speed.

but this is, as has been said, not an exact science, and it all adds to the intrigue!!! :) <br>  

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