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That’s interesting — thanks, Wallace. What I’m really doing is fishing for observations along those lines. Like Artemis, I don’t have the time to devote to making my own ratings.
I note horses that earn Raceform speed ratings above what would be expected (given the classes in which they are competing), at distances up to a mile. The selections do pretty well on the all weather (even since the introduction of Polytrack); they are less consistent on turf.
Some people knock Split Second for discounting weight; but it is easy to add weight to the ratings if you want (adjust original weighting to 10 stone; readjust to weight carried on the day). He’s also charged with overrating performances at minor tracks. That may have been true, once, but seems not to be now — the ratings he assigns at Folkestone, say, are roughly what you’d expect.
My general impression — not backed, I must admit, by any rigorous analysis — is that Split Second’s ratings are sounder than Topspeed’s.
Between the 1970 Arc and Champion Stakes, Vincent O’Brien thought that Nijinsky was back to his best. If even he could be wrong about a horse’s well-being, so can Paul Nicholls.
In my opinion, Kauto Star at his best would have won today despite the misguided tactics.
He’s always reminded me of a hurdling version of One man.
The way BJK emptied in races last season reminded me of One Man too. It might not have anything to do with staying a trip. One Man emptied in the King George (albeit on soft ground), which he had one twice before; he also did it (while still winning) in a 2m 4f race at Ascot. He won the Hennessy; I do not believe that the extra weight on his back was the reason he didn’t last the same trip in the Gold Cup.
Whatever happened to free speech? Censorship on TRF, why?
Another important aspect of a free society is the right to a fair trial. Commenting publicly on a case in progress prejudices that right.
The differences of interpretation here offer further evidence why, in the Fallon case, any element of "expert opinion" — should the prosecution produce it — would be worthless in court.
When we talk about Arkle, we praise his record in winning three Gold Cups, as well as handicaps such as the Hennessy (twice), the Whitbread and the Irish Grand National giving away lots of weight. When we talk about Desert Orchid, we praise his record in winning top class chases from two miles to three miles five furlongs, again often giving away weight; and in winning a Gold Cup when conditions were against him. Both horses carried on winning over several seasons.
Let us hope that Kauto Star proves himself worthy to be mentioned alongside them. At the moment, he has shown only the potential to achieve this status.
This piece offers a fair summary of Kauto Star’s current status.
I liked Fabre’s answer last year:
Persad: "How special is this horse [Hurricane Run]?"
Fabre (with an implied shrug): "As special as an Arc winner."
Now that EC and Stav are gone, it would be refreshing if we could return to debating on this forum without insulting people/winding them up.<br>
(Edited by Nickc at 10:51 am on Sep. 29, 2006)
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Clivex
I don’t follow that argument. Breeding is "geared more and more to speed", and "the drop in pace mid-race will be a regular feature" of the Derby; how can it then be a "pure stayers’ race"? You’re suggesting that the race will be run to suit non-stayers.
I don’t agree. I think that the authorities should lean, in the interests of the punters and owners who fund the sport, towards awarding races to deserving winners. If they are to overturn results, they should have to be sure that the horse getting the race would have won without interference. You cannot decide that, with certainty, about Court Masterpiece.
However, if I were Ed Dunlop or Jamie Spencer, I would have found Aidan O’Brien’s post-race comments very irritating.
I think that the rules concerning the result of the race are fair. The placings should be amended only if they would have turned out differently without interference. It’s impossible to be sure that Court Masterpiece would have won with a clear passage.
I don’t believe that Ad Valorem should lose the race as a punishment for his jockey’s actions. Backers and connections of the horse would be entitled to feel very aggrieved if that happened.
No one is devaluing Sir Percy’s Derby win, or Seb Coe’s gold medals. What is in question is the FORM of the races. As we learned, Coe was capable of breaking world records as well. We don’t know yet whether Sir Percy’s form will be similarly robust. I think it might be. Let’s wait and see.
