[Mtoto44]

I prefer the term "randomness" to "luck".

Understandable it sounds far more intellectual trying to measure "randomness" than trying to measure " luck" But isn’t it the same thing when it comes to racing? Also doesn’t it apply to all the runners in equal measures?

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

"Prominent King … was level [with Mr Kildare]"

Hensman,

I know your post was addressed to L33, but can I ask why you assume PK was level with MK? VDW said….."Mr Kildare, an odds-on winner last time out not against much opposition, was set to carry 51b more". That doesn’t really read as VDW considered him a serious contender based on known form and a likely bet if PK hadn’t run?

Why couldn’t PK have been level with say Decent Fellow that set of ratings, but DF behind a couple of others on the other set? For what its worth I think MK was only in the best three by default. A top class flat horse who had won his only two starts over hurdles and could be anything.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

Garston,

Of course I’m not sure where your coming from about the Sporting Chronicle, but for me there are two reasons why I think PERHAPS that was the racing paper of choice. The first being how would VDW have worked the Desert Hero "method" if he didn’t regularly used that paper and checked the results over a good time? The other has been mentioned.

You must realise that by suggesting in anyway the Life wasn’t used does bring into doubt the use of the ability rating, as without the Life it becomes a long laborious job working out that rating. Although it should be noted the only forecast shown before the introduction of that rating WASN’T a forecast coming from the Life. Coincidence, possibly? From memory I don’t think the wording of the Old Fellow examples matches the Life’s forecast, not sure about the SC forecast though.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

I certainly doubt that that late letter should be assumed to un-write, as it were, all the previous "Golden Years" etc material.

Hensman,

I don’t think he was trying to "un-write" previous material, more to explain how the assumptions based on the early material were missing the point.

The first of which is the ability rating was used to solve the examples before it was introduced. I have gone through this many times before and have decided to keep quite as I do feel I’m becoming a bit of a bore on the subject. However this in no way means I have changed my mind, or read anything put forward that makes me doubt I’m wrong.

To reply to your points.

1) neither horse had a win in its last three runs (the runs which, by now, VDW will have assumed his readers were using to establish form);

I agree VDW may have assumed readers were indeed using the last three runs to estabish form. However for me the last three runs are to confirm only one thing, that the horse is CONSISTENT.

2) neither horse had a win at the level of the races in which they were his selections.

Again I can’t argue with that fact, but why use PK as an example many of his other selections also fit that criteria? Of course it may just be me but I think VDW was showing the answer to a question that had been bothering many from the Erin. I also think this is what he felt many had missed from the example in Systematic Betting.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

VDW showed that he used class and ability as synonyms (3rd last and penultimate paras. of his contribution of 28/2/81 – item 36 in "The Golden Years").

Hensman,

I agree in many articles he did use those words as synonyms, but that can’t be said of the article when he said PK DIDN’T have a winning class rating. If you think I’m mistaken can you explain the wording? After all he did bracket PK with a horse that had never won a race.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

I’m not really sure where your own ratings fit into this, as the discussion is about VDW’s ability rating.

Crock,

My apologises, I thought the discussion was about why VDW’s ability didn’t work, and that was down to the fact it didn’t incude weight.

I notice you have mentioned ability ratings and class ratings as if they are one and the same. How can this be? To qualify for an ability rating a horse must have won races, this doesn’t appear to work with class ratings, VDW himself said Prominent King didn’t have a WINNING class rating.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

Crock,

A couple of questions if I may? First are you saying the ability rating doesn’t work, or isn’t up to the job because it doesn’t take weight into account? Also looking at Garstonf’s figures he appears to be using the bare rating. As you know when looking at the examples the selection is often well down the ability rankings, so how do G’s figures prove anything?

As you also know I don’t use/look at weight at any time, however I would be more than happy to put my ratings against any of the weight based rating you mention. Unfortunately I can’t give you stats as I inadvertently included a formula into my analysis sheets (also the sheets I used as a record of past races) so the figures have automatically updated, at times making a nonsense of past races.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

Garston,

I did have the Formcast numbers for those races, The Sporting Life from memory didn’t do NH ratings at that time.

After turning the office up side down I can’t find the actual figures but have found some notes.

Little Owl’s race the figures are in the same order as VDW’s. Little Owl, Fairy King and Wayard Lad.
The next race Sunset Christo was fifth best on the ratings with a 6? maybe 68 or 63.
Gaye Chance is 4th best with a 74 as you know 78 is always the top
Kenlis is 3rd best with a 73.

I have played with these figures as I have been told some think they are important and part of the VDW other figures. I’m not at all sure as there were no Formcast figures printed for the Erin. The other thing that makes me wonder is how do you adapt a rating if your not sure what is or isn’t used when the figures are compiled?

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

2:50 Newb

Regime 1
Galactic Star 2
Red Gala 3
Linas Selection 4

I make this very tight between the top two, but they are a fair way clear of the others.

Regime, improving on ground and course that may not have to his advantage. Best form until then has been on right handed courses. Distance has to be taken on trust, but can’t see it being a stiff pace with only one front runner. Has the look of a horse that has been targeted for this unlike some who look to be taking their chance just because.
Galactic Star. to be at his best seems to need a strong pace can’t see where that’s coming from. There is also a doubt about the going. has handled softer than good in lower class. On the figures must stand a chance, but not for me at the price.

Not a betting race for me, if pushed I would go for Regime.

Cormack,

What happened to TEMPERAMENT why the need for a bet? The 4:30 Newb has been selected in another place as the race for discussion.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

Boozer,

PK’s last race was over 16f. His first win as over17f at Naas, he then won over 16f on the same course as his last run next time out These were the only races he had won up to that date. The race at Naas was worth £1.041, the next one was worth £2,497.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

Mtoto to be fair VDW never said BL was out of form

Maggsy,

I agree with the above and a lot of the other things you mention, hard race last time out, only 14 days between races, etc. If folk had said he failed for other reasons than form I wouldn’t have bothered to go into detail, I expect I would also have skipped over the fact PK was top rated. When I queried non form horse the answer was, but thats the way VDW looked at form.

There are no form comments for any of the races run in Ireland as far as I can see, in the form book or the Sporting Life. However I did read somewhere in his last race PK lead until just before the last. bad jump/mistake at the last, so all in all a good to fair run. I have no problem with this was a prep race for the Erin, or that PK was being aimed at that race. The only thing I do have problems with is BL not being a form horse.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

L33,

I apologise, as you know many throw the toys out the pram when others don’t agree with them. I did think it was strange, but reacted before I knew what was going on. Then I couldn’t find the edit button so my mistake is there for all to see. I have only just found Cormack’s PM. So sorry.

Garston,

I have tried working the figures shown in SIAO and have to say I can only agree with Hensman. I can’t make them work at face value. I can make one race work and another shows the top rated 2nd best. I can’t make head or tail of Sunset Christo’s race and have lost my notes on the last race. Now if you ask the same question about the Erin (although they are not shown) I would have to say a resounding yes. The figure that makes PK the best horse in the race then works for around 80% of all VDW’s selections. With a few of the races that fail I can see reasons why the top rated would be passed over ie Burrough Hill Lad

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

Hensman,

I have no problem with either of the two horses you last mention. VDW himself said they were not form horses, its more horse along the lines of Beacon Light and Petronisi and to be honest the ONLY reason I can see for labeling them as non form horses is to remove them from the equation. They have to be removed because they have higher ability rating than the selection, they both are also consistent and in the forecast. To make the a/rating work they have to be eliminated, I say the original rating, the other rating showed both of these horses inferior to the selection.

Beacon Light is out of form because he had dropped in class in each of his last three races. That’s fair enough, but the same can be said for the selection and other VDW selections. The argument then is the last race for PK was a better race than the class showed it wasn’t really a 6 it was worth more because of the class of the other horses. BL had run in a class 39 dropping from a 43, in BL’s race he had to give weight to a horse that if it had been a hcp he would have been receiving weight from. The horse Sea Pigeon (must remember this was before SP had won a champion hurdle) had beat BL at level weights the season before in the champion hurdle. For me BL had a monster task on his hands giving weight on the wrong type of course on the wrong going to a top class horse and his race isn’t up graded. hes out of form becaus ehe should have won, who says he should I think everything was against him. To say the horse was out of form defies all logic for me. However the figures say both he and Sea Pigeon didn’t have the form to win the Erin at that time, and that I can accept.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

IF you are happy with the way you work, and believe my understanding to be incorrect, why are you still seeking answers and not posting selections?

L33,

I’m not looking for answers as you put it. If I was I would be pushing you harder to answer the question I did ask. You know, I answered the one you asked, then you side-stepped as did Hensman to a certain extent about the use of SIAO. I gave my reasons for starting the first thread, on this one all I’ve tried to do is join in. I thought the idea was to give the a good general idea of what VDW was/is about, basically I don’t think that is what is happening so I had my say. I have to say I find it very strange you and others didn’t have more to say on the form aspect. VDW clearly said form and class are two different factors, he went as far as to say form is what they did class is where they did it. If they are the same why have a class/form horse why not just the class horse?

[delted]

The question must then be WHY don’t you have any difficulty, or are you happy to accept that consistent horses with higher a/rating are all out of form? VDW said at the back of Systematic Betting don’t take my word for anything ask yourself WHY.To be exact he wrote "Don’t accept a word I have written, prove it first for yourself, then and only then will you have started along that narrow road to your goal through the process of acquiring that first indispensable asset… TEMPERAMENT." I did and some of these horses that are being dismissed as non form horses to make the ratings work show IF the same procedures as set out in the Erin work, they are passed over because the selection had better form and/or class.

As said I think the only difference was how VDW worked the ability element. That being so he didn’t even have to change his formula.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

The point is that the part of the letter I quoted summarises what VDW actually did – showed more and more of his approach over time.

Hensman,

I’m in no doubt VDW did go on and explain more of his methods in time, I just don’t think SIAO was where this happened. I think Systematic Betting was. I think SIAO was to pacify the general Public, and Mr Peach, and show the "new" ability rating in action.

For me the worrying fact isn’t just that the new instructions (top four for ability) missed so many of the early winners it is more the actual ranking using this rating. 6th 7th and down to 9th somewhere VDW said any rating worth its salt should have the winners near the top. Here we have top rated Beacon Light 48 plays PK 7th best at 17. He also said keep to the top four when using ratings.

As Prominent King was only 7th rated for ability I have seen some weird and wonderful arguments used to make him the selection. BL out of form/non form horse, etc. All of this seems to ignore VDW said PK was just top rated on one method of rating and joint top on the other. It does beg the question if BL was out of form why did VDW have him starred as a probable? When it is pointed out BL had just run a very good race if not one of his best the argument then turns to VDW looked at form in a very different way than most. While this maybe true I can’t find any other incidences that confirm that. Everything else seems to be backed up with cold logic. This for me includes the 1985 King George you mention.

This may read I don’t believe in VDW, but I think there are two different methods being used as the basic method. The first being the examples before the introduction of the ability rating and then the examples being used after it. That isn’t to say some of the selections can be found using both methods.

Why the two? I think VDW wrote to the SCHB forum page to help by giving a few tips on how to narrow the field. When the whole thing took he realised it didn’t make sense without explaining his other ratings (the true ability rating) so something had to be introduced to use to measure ability. I’m not saying that something is useless, and I do think it may have started as one of his cross checks. I’m 100% convinced it wasn’t used in the early examples.

Far fetched, hard to believe? For me it is easier to believe than BL being a non form horse for the Erin. I have found a rating that says PK was better than BL for that race. That rating is based on VDW thinking and examples given by him, coincidence? I don’t think so.

If someone was to forward you prior to racing win single selections that achieve a guaranteed 80%+ strike rate at an average price greater than 6/4 would it not be foolish to back them?

L33,

Two problems first, no one has ever presented me with the above, well not with a guarantee.
The second being why would a risk my money when I know I can obtain a 75% return at usually better than 6/4 using the same method(s) without needing the win?

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

Have to say I do find myself wondering what this thread is all about. I hope I’m wrong but I do get the feeling it will be used to mock VDW. This is what VDW is all about and it doesn’t work. When the final conclusions are arrived at the ONLY way to prove anything is to test it against the VDW examples, because I’m more than happy it won’t produce the goods or match his selections.

Hensman

I have read the article you refer to, and sorry to say I miss the point I think you are trying to make. That is if you are indeed making apoint. I can only assume you have read somewhere along the line I don’t accept the ability rating as later explained was the one VDW used in the early examples. Even after taking that into account I don’t see how anyone can argue the procedures as explained can find ALL of the early VDW selections, for that matter Pegwell Bay also fails as he was joint 5th bets on ability for his race. It clearly states….Always mark off the four highest ability ratings and three most consistent from the forecast. In the illustrations this is done with an asterisk (•*).

If this is done 14 selections are eliminated. End of story. It is also interesting that the Aldaniti and Saher selection cross check also eliminated at least the same 14 selections. I can accept that PB may have been an update to the selection method and he (VDW) was progressing his selection method for the general public. It is the first selections that interest me, the ones VDW put up before Mr Peach became involved, or the ones VDW showed after he cut the ties with said Mr Peach.

Crock

I think I agree with you about the three 111’s. VDW said ALL relevant horse were rated by two different methods. If this is so he could easily cut four or horses with these form figures down to a final three. Find it very hard to accept the 99% though, although three top rated horses all with those figures would be hard to beat.

L33,

One day you are going to have to explain why the fact I won’t back short priced horses is foolish. I won’t back horses like Short Skirt and New Approach so I will never have an 80% strike rate it is a simple as that. I’m not for one moment saying it isn’t possible for you or anyone else to achieve it, just I never will. Yesterday rather than risk my money on SS I backed a horse to place that I couldn’t see winning its race, (it finished 3rd) but it paid better for the place than SS did for the win.

Be Lucky

[Mtoto44]

L33,

In SIAO VDW clearly says….Always mark off the four highest ability ratings and three most consistent from the forecast. In the illustrations this is done with an asterisk (•*).

All the horses listed below fail because they are ranked outside the highest four. Their ranking is along side their names.

Love From Verona 9
Son Of Love 9
Prominent King 7
Little Nugget 7
Connaught Bridge 7
My Therape 6
Baronet 6
Mitchelstown 6
Lyric Dance 6
Battlement 6
Gaffer 5
Pragmatic 5
Drumlerry 5
Quickapenny 5

Do you not agree?

Hensman,

My copy of Systems In My Racing seems to have been misplaced, so can I ask is the letter you are talking about the one VDW used as a foreward to J Bingham’s book or some thing else?

Be Lucky

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