[Monster]

Hi Robert99

Always good to hear from you

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/master … _id=838052

Its also revealing how certain tipsters perfrorm with certain Trainers and you can check this out with the same feature

You will probably have to log on first

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Sean & Goodlife

There has been a lot of debate about the Dams side on the site you mentioned Sean and we are still only scratching the surface

Interesting research on why the Dams line is important can be read at this free site

http://thoroughbredgenetics.com

I mentioned Escape Route who ran in the Lincoln if you look at his Dams side

Conduit Mare Profile = 11-4-1-4-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-9-16

Perfect balance of Speed and stamina and should find a decent race at between 8f – 10f

On the Female Tail line traces back to Traces back to La Troienne who is cusing interest on the site that Sean Mentioned. There is a good free site and La Troienne is covered at the link below

http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family1x.htm

Now onto Don’t Panic

DP = 5-5-10-2-8 (30) DI = 1.00 CD = -0.10
Conduit Mare Profile = 0-6-2-14-2 Speed = 6 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.40

Has plenty of Stamina on the Female Tail line and the Conduit Mare is Membrilla who was also the Conduit Mare for Dr Devious, Bon Mot and Msytico.

Ela-Mana-Mou as the Dam Sire also has increased success as a Dam Sire over Longer distances.

If you still like Dosage, then the DP also indicates stamina with 8 professional points.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi ST

you have mail

[Monster]

Hi Good Life

Looking at the trainer record for P W Chapple-Hyam he has only pitched a gelding at Group Level once before and that was a 3yr old African Dream.
Won Class 3, 8f Handicap off 94 and then was placed 7 days later in a Goup 3 at Sandown 10f and won
Next ran again in May and won a (Class A) (Group 3 at Chester)

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Over the years I have tried to look at as many VDW andgles as I can. As far as I am concerned If VDW took the trouble to write about it, then it must be worth exploring the angle further.

VDW wrote about weight being a great leveller, and mentioned that a trainer will leave a high weighted horse in a race to prevent another charge suffering from raised weights. He then stated that you should ponder why the high weighted horse was entered in the first place.

Sometimes it is an advantage to the trainer to compress the weights. Not only does it stop the weights being raised for his other runner, but may also put competitors out of the handicap so that they carry more weight than the handicapper intended against their Offiicial Rating.

The following example of this was posted Pre race on the old Peach Forum.

John Dunlop declared two runners at York 8th October 2005, 2mile 4fur (going Soft) and he owned both runners, which meant that he personally paid for both entry fees and the prize money was modest.

He ran the Top weight Harlestone Grey (7 years old) who carried Top weight of Ten Stone and had winning form over 12f.

John Dunlop also ran The Nawab (3 Years Old) who had been improving steadily and who had won over 2 miles Lto, carrying 8st 12 lbs. Was now stepping up from class 4 to class 3 and carried 8st 2lbs.

The Nawab won 7/2

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Artemist

There is an excellent site which operates from a breeding angle as well as Form etc. very useful for lightly raced types as they operate a Speed/ Stamina index.

Good Luck

Monster

Monster,

Could you please "pm" Artemis with this information – the owner of TRF does not approve of links to web sites that are commercial identities. (Any free information websites are OK.)

[Monster]

The Racing Post have an analysis feature which is worth checking out.

I have posted the Top Speed Analysis by Race Type and the RP Ratings

RP Ratings do very Well in Claiming Races and in 3yr Old Maidens an amazing 43% Strike rate

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … 1rgBcq1xQA

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Artemist

The Official Ratings are published at the following link each Tuesday and come into effect the folowing Saturday. If you find a horse who posts a big speed figure on a Sunday, he will have nearly 2 weeks before his new OR comes into effect.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/insid … d_jump.pdf

Another useful link is Why They ran Badly (Check out the excuses)

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/insid … nbadly.asp

Ever wonder why a horse was withdrawn on the day of the race
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/gorac … efault.asp

Watch carefull those who are withdrawn because of the going as the Trainer may have this one ready to fire and if he has multiple entries.

Its useful to keep your own list of Trainers Entries an example of this is below.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … _YaSiGB1Qw

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

RE – An important point that VDW Raised in the Roushayd example.

” Form is what they did and class is the level at which it was achieved. Therefore, when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated with other aspects such as distance, going, track etc. Whatever the form and class, a long striding galloping horse is ALMOST BOUND TO COME UNSTUCK ON A SHARP TRACK
The end part of the quote is what stops the Roushayd method becoming a system.

Another clue that VDW was not reling on just a High Speed Figure and Dropped in Class to arrive at a Wiiner In The Race, comes from the following information contained in ‘Systematic Betting’

VDW ” For example two of my favourite races come at the early July Haydock meeting. They are the Old Newton Cup and The Lancashire Oaks both on the same card. There is usually a dead certainty in one or the other and two yeras ago (1988) it was Roushayd in The Old Newton Cup. 1987 gave me two certainties, Pipsted in The Old Newton Cup and Three Tails i The Lancashire Oaks.” End

Its worth inspecting Pipsted and Gorgeous Strike prior to Running in The Old Newton Cup

Pipstead King Goerge V Handicap (0-110) Class 113 Speed Fig 65 (Soft)

Gorgeous Strike Northern Dancer Handicap (0-110) Class 192 Speed Fig 79 (Good)

Clearly VDW was taking other aspects into consideration if he thought that Pipsted was a certainty. I suspect that the reason the ‘Roushayd Method’ fails for some is that they try turn the method into a system.

VDW was good at appraising many other aspects including course and distance suitability, remember what he said about Kempton not being the track for Forgive ‘N’ Forget.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Hi Monster,

I’m always interested in a different approach to the rating of horses and I can see from your work that your method has been well thought out.

Unfortunately, your spreadsheets are ‘chopped down’ on the link you provided and I cannot see all of your text explaining your reasoning. Is there any other way to view these pages?

Hi Artemis

I have edited the Google doc and you should now be able to read the text beneath the ratings for the Sands Crooner Examples.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

It was interesting that both the Spring Mile Winner and Lincloln winner came from the same side. Don’t Panic has been hiked up from an OR of 92 to 104 Ouch!

Looking at the far side in the Lincoln Escape Route ran well on his return to turf judged against Blythe Knight who has been raised to 112 after the race. Escape Route has dropped to 93 from 95. He is beautifully bred with a nice blend of speed and stamina and has won a 9f race last season on Gd/frm off 91. (Doncaster was Good/Soft)

Escape Route is only lightly raced for a 4 yr old and his shrewd trainer will certainly find a nice race for this one.

Good Luck

Monster

[Monster]

Sorry,

I don’t know you will have to contact Cormack.

I would presume it was somebody that has been banned in the past and re-registered under a new name.

Regards- Matron

Hi Matron & David

Nothing sinister just a computer problem, but my original post will still be credited to guest.

Re Roushayd Example.

I thought that it might be useful to fill in the gaps from his 3 yr Old career.

Last six runs

15/05/87 ran best speedv fig (64) in class 110 handicap, 12f, 5/1 2nd fav
27/07/87 Won maiden (down in class) 4/7 fav
19/08/87 Finished 8th 115 Handicap 14f 16/1
12/09/87 Stakes Race (Down in Class ) 12f won 7/2 3r fav
26/09/87 115 Handicap (Up in Class) 12f won 14/1
24/10/87 Group 3 (Up In Class) 12f, 8/1 4th Fav last of 11 runners

An important point that VDW Raised in the Roushayd example.

" Form is what they did and class is the level at which it was achieved. Therefore, when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated with other aspects such as distance, going, track etc. Whatever the form and class, a long striding galloping horse is ALMOST BOUND TO COME UNSTUCK ON A SHARP TRACK
The end part of the quote is what stops the Roushayd method becoming a system. If you check out the Timeform comment for Roushayd he is described as Long Striding. So his performance in the Northern Dancer Handicap at Epsom, prior to winning at Haydock, was even better seeing as he recorded a career Best Speed rating.

During the AW season I have been developing a class rating based on Class of Competitor, OR and combined with distance won or beaten etc.

The Class ratings were then adjusted for each handicap based on the best rating from the last 3 runs. The two examples for Sands Crooner should explain. (See Google Doc Link) The Top rated is analysed for other positives. Speed, Track, surface, distance, pace etc. You will notice that I have the 2008 AW record for Sands Crooner and how his Class ratings changed etc, followed by two race examples.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … Ieb1SCdhMw

My Turf ratings example are up to date for the 2008 season in ratings order and are at the following google doc link. the full data base includes race class contested and race coments etc. They are for my personal use and I will not be selling or promoting them on a commercial basis, but thought that it might be useful to explain a different approach.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … 5IuQJensRQ

Good Luck

Monster

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