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Okay, i’ve had a go, so here are my 3 from 100+. I’ll keep this a bit briefer as my posts have been very long-winded lately and i don’t want to annoy the regulars or sully Kingfisher’s thread with my ramblings, although these on-request choices for the Stewards Cup may do just that
My first horse is
Humidor
(33-1). He was 3rd to
Night Carnation
in the Coral Charge, beating
Pastoral Player
after going off at 25s. Historically he goes very well at Goodwood – winning over 6f at the venue last year in addition to another victory over 5f in April.
Humidor
has shown to be a definite improver with huge potential after performing so well at Sandown, and his Nottingham race beforehand just seemed like an off-day. Showing better as a 4yo than a 3.
My second is
Ritual
(16-1). Here is another improver with an impressive record in lower class races, who won at Sandown on Friday with R L Moore on board after an 8-month break – he’s won his last four starts, each at different circuits on a range of going, and seems to love the distance. Apparently he needs extra weight to make the grade, but if he gets it, his presence could be very telling indeed.
My third horse is
Victoire de Lyphar
(20-1). Trained by David Nicholls, who has great record in the race if trainer form is anything to go by, being the man behind
Evens and Odds
victory in this event last year.
Victoire
ran a miserable race at Ascot last time out, but his previous form suggests it was just a glitch. A string of wins and places show an admirable consistency over 6f, but interestingly, he was beaten by another Nicholls horse,
Joseph Henry
(33-1), at Goodwood in the Stewards’ Sprint over 6f last year.
I also ummed and ahhed over
Hoof It, Evens and Odds, Pastoral Player and Hawkeyethenoo
, which i could have each made a case for. That’s it, sorry if my rookie-readings are all tosh and no game!
I like a challenge so i’m rising to this one, Kingfisher! My mind’s been waning since the year ended, so i’m doing my research and will be back with my musings on the Steward’s Cup tomorrow or later tonight – and i’ve made an effort not to look at anybody else’s replies as i suspect they have opted into your task!
I’ll post three horses as requested, and my reasoning for propositioning them. Please don’t be angry at me if i do terribly and am flawed as i haven’t even considered this race before, but i’ll try my best! I won’t come back until i have my runners, so off i go! (I’ve actually been note-taking for a while now so i”m on my way). Back soon.Fortunately, although i’m typically not one for addiction, i have come to terms with the fact that i got dragged in far too deeply, to the point that the value of money seemed to diminish rapidly with each bet made. The ease of online betting no doubt aided that, although i only have myself to blame for depositing at the rate i did. I have thankfully snapped out of this spiral within a month of it beginning, with the worst consequence being a serious talking to from my parents and a move back home for the rest of the summer if i can’t make some of my losses back. I tried my heart out this year with budgeting and being financially conscious, and i was so happy to be able to afford to not go through the major difficulty of moving out, then i go and blow all my efforts and am facing the same set of circumstances i faced after my first university year. But it’s my fault, and i only wish i had caught up with myself sooner. I realised that i broke the cardinal rule – never bet what you cannot afford to lose. Although i’m rather angsty about wanting to recoup some losses so i can afford to stay in my London flat beyond a fortnight’s time, no betting today, and if something ante-post pops up, i’ll head to a bookmakers and do it the hard way, to get a feel for what i’m doing. Strangely, i don’t have a problem stopping betting – i have to be coy and pick very carefully, as i can’t afford to naively place sums of money on rough guesswork.
Jonibake, that
Royal Anthem
loss must have been painfully sharp – and that rather bittersweet tale of being a very flash-in-the-pan prefect is as hilarious as it is telling of the nature of a growing gambling addiction. I’m sorry to hear of your friend – i’m yet to discover if i have caught myself at a recoverable point as you did, or whether i belong to the camp your unfortunate friend does. Time will tell. Haha yes, that is indeed my surname – more wildmun than man when spoken aloud but same difference i guess! Thank you for the advice to invest myself in racing – my interest in the sport has blossomed recently, which culminated in me betting on
Pour Moi
for the Epsom Derby. That was my first. I think seeing
Frankel
charge to victory in the 2000 guineas earlier this year had a profound affect on me and heightened my fascination instantly – it drew me inwards. i shall head to a race meeting (when i can afford to) and invest myself in more than just statistics and form cards. I have a lot to learn, wasn’t careful enough going into this new territory (which i’ve learnt can be very dangerous if you don’t have a complete grip on what you’re dealing with), and i got hit hard as a result.
Discipline and moderation. Thank you GDC and Jonibake for your great words, the amount of support on here from so many wise heads has been amazing. Also, well done to Djokovich, he had Nadal in the bag!
Thank you Ruby, Kingfisher and thehorsesmouth, you each offer very valuable input that i will take with me and carry into the future.
Firstly, to Kingfisher – please do not feel you should make apologies for
Workforce
‘s loss in the Eclipse yesterday. I took your opinions on board, but ultimately i made the decision as to whether i placed a bet on it or So You Think – you are not responsible in any way. In this case, i made the wrong call; the horse ran its race and lost, and that’s that. There are no complaints or pointing fingers to be had, and i will live to fight another day, as will
Workforce
. You guys all have such great stories and seem to have grown so wise with your gambling, and that knowledge certainly does give you the right to say i’ve been playing out of my depth as a newbie.
If i hadn’t been betting the remainder of my student loan, but instead a hard-earned wage, i’m sure my willingness to bet what i have done over this past month wouldn’t have been so large. Confidence, i agree, from what i have learnt so far, is key; i cannot begin to tell you how many winners i’ve seen go by after i voided my instinct and backed out of a bet through hesitation. You are an excellent judge by all accounts, Kingfisher – the financial ones especially – and have no reason to doubt yourself, that’s for certain. I think you’re entertaining, so no worries there, and i appreciate that your dealings are very seriously considered as you have responsibilities beyond your own person – to a family, and i would not under any circumstances ever consider betting as brashly as i have done recently were i to have sons or daughters to support.
I will have to be disciplined from now on – i can’t afford not to be – and i believe in myself that i can build up a steady profit if i play my cards right from now on and cut out the forehead-slapping losers. Betting sparsely crossed my mind – it was constantly occurring to me that i should hold back and place a few bets per week, if that, but i kept jumping the traps and diving back in thinking i could make a sneaky pair here and there. That’s no longer going to be the case. After all this great input from an inspiring community, i feel like i can move ahead and get back on my feet – i’m happy i posted. Thank you so much guys.
Best thing anybody can do in gambling is first of all, not getting addicted. Probably since the Sunday of Royal Ascot I’ve had a bet on maybe 7 days? Certainly not more than 10. That’s half the battle. Everything in moderation is fine. Drinking, smoking cigarettes, smoking pot, gambling, etc. Don’t let anybody ever tell you differently.
[…]
With horse racing for example, my speciality is Pattern stuff and 2yos. Any Group or Graded racing is my cup of tea. The races aren’t bent, bad jockeys don’t win them and the horses are trying. Nothing’s being stuck out the back to get a better handicap mark or to get a better price next time out. Mid-week AW dross and bent handicaps are not my idea of a reliable betting medium. It’s all fixed and any punter with a brain can work that out. Just spend a day sitting in a bookies with Betfair on your phone or tablet PC and you see everything. However, a member on here finds that racing to be very profitable. Not sure how, but he does.
Early-season 2yo maidens are wonderful. Find a couple of hot ones (the 2nd, 3rd or 4th will win comfortably next time out)) and back everything that finished immediately in front of or behind next time out. There was a 9/1 winner I had at the end of May, forget the name. Finished 5th in the race North City Bay debuted in. Not Excelebration, but something similar. He opened up 9/1 in the maiden he won and the form of that Goodwood race was [expletive] hot. He won by over a length and went off around 13/2 I seem to remember.
Just find what you’re good at and stick to it.
Everything in moderation is certainly something to abide by. In the post-university lull it’s particularly easy to get caught up in daily betting, and although i can happily step away and spend days on holiday from the gg’s, lately it has been a combination of circumstance and a building financial predicament that has spurred me to continue in the manner i have been doing. I began to bet on horse racing because i enjoy the sport and adore horses, and something about betting on an organic medium with such a wealth of statistics on offer appeals to me, whereas other forms of sport betting do not. I love my motor sport, but i do think that betting on it would make the racing less entertaining for me. So in a contradictory way, i’m wouldn’t say i’m really a betting man, i just like my horse racing enough to have a rather dangerous flutter on it which has lately spiraled!
I think i should maybe deal with my losses better, rather than turning around the next day and deciding that i’m going to try and win it all back. I should persevere until something more attractive and clear-cut comes along. I’ll stay away from Wolverhampton and the like then – i had a win on
Bilko Pak
there last week, and perennial-under-performer-since-winter
Shostakovich
came along and nabbed the glory. I’ll keep your philosophy on early-season maidens in mind, thank you Zarkava – and i’ll make sure i avoid those handicaps.
Thanks so much for the responses – it’s calmed me down and made me feel like this is recoverable, no more pacing around the room for me!
Another word of advice. Read Kingfisher’s posts carefully and note anything he says. Gordon is an unbelievable tipster, by a street the best I’ve ever seen and will ever see. He gets bad runs, but don’t we all. He tipped Evens and Odds about 2 months before the Stewards’ Cup, maybe more, stayed completely loyal to Workforce for the Arc after the King George, picked out Roderic and Misty for the Irish Guineas and the amount of other incredible tips he’s given out are just astounding. There was another the other week, a god-like tip. Prohibit for the King’s Stand. I must’ve looked at that horse’s profile on the RP 40 times and never once did I even give him a shred of hope. A horse with 15 odd runs since January who was on the go in Meydan win a King’s Stand? On your bike. Phenomenal. Incredible.
We all have our day and we all throw up good tips. I tipped up Zarkava to win the Arc the evening she won the Marcel Boussac and backed her accordingly the day the market opened up (hence the username), Cooldine winning the RSA was brilliant, Big Buck’s winning his 1st World Hurdle, Alberta’s Run winning the Ryanair both times (another of Gordon’s incredible tips), Alberta’s Run winning the Melling, Pour Moi winning the Derby after I’d backed him at 200/1, Lillie Langtry winning the Coronation after I’d backed her at 85/1, but those are flashes in the pan over the course of 3 or 4 years.
Galaxy on the old BBC 606 forum was good, but Gordon’s in a different league. God damn shame I’m too arrogant and ignorant never to have backed the majority of them or either been too late reading the thread to get the tips. Sagramor winning the Buckingham Palace hurt…especially as I’d backed that Devil thing that finished 3rd.
Kingfisher (i hesitate to use his real name considering i’ve only been haunting these parts for nary a month, haha), from what i have read, is as you say, a tipster from the heavens – i’ve never encountered someone who can attribute the level of foresight, logic, methodical prediction and natural gauge to the sport of horse racing as Kingfisher does. Not for a single moment would i even thinking of blaming him for my losses – he has made some incredible calls, and at the end of the day, i have the final say as to whether i back a horse or not, and how much i bet. Although
Deauville Flyer
only placed in the Northumberland Plate last week, i made £150 off that horse thanks to KF – my biggest single win, so i truly appreciate him keeping a tally of his tips and bets for me to see. Some of the more historic calls he has made are spellbinding, and if one of those happens to come along in the future, i’m pretty sure it could pay for the entirety of third year at university
Not only KF, but all the haunters of this thread, including you Zarkava, and Ginger, Cormack etc. all pitch in to create hotbed of information which i really enjoy reading – i learn alot from these pages, so thank you all. I’m especially grateful as although things aren’t going so well right now, it’s wonderful that someone can pop out of the woodwork and say "hey, i’ve been there".
Don’t apologise. Always happy to help. I’m 23 and I’ve been gambling for almost 10 years. I learn lessons every single day – the struggle is remembering them. 9 days ago a Tom Dascombe newcomer called Electric Qatar was debuting. Tom’s a great judge of his 2yos and gave him a favourable write-up in Taplin’s book. The only other 2yos he’d flagged up had all won 1st or 2nd time out. The horse had such good entries and had been backed all back, so I had a £100 treble with him, Khor Sheed and Midday (before Snow Fairy was taken out). That horse lost and Khor Sheed won. The next day we had a good evening’s racing at The Curragh. Spent a further few hundred trying to get big trebles running onto Midday. Come Saturday and I’m messing around, getting deeper and deeper in. I caught a lucky break with a decent winner, plus Montaff placing in the Plate helped. I was £300 up after having lost about £600, so the entire £900 in my 2 accounts was piled onto Midday…
I then spent the next couple of hours struggling and grinding and somehow managed to get it back to £28 down. Lovely. Thought I’d keep £200 aside for the Grand Prix (I’ve shown a profit on every GP in-running this season) and lay out £200 in a few bets trying to get money running onto Carlton House….I ended up being £1090 down by Sunday night.
My insurance was the £400 I’d staked on Spain winning the U21 Euros and Djokovic, Murray, Nadal and…Federer getting to the semis. Federer 2-0 up against Tsonga, lovely stuff. And look what happened.
Before today, I’d lost £2500 since the Wednesday of Royal Ascot. I was in an incredible position. I had £30RFC trebles running onto So You Think and Planteur, £200EW on Planteur (1st, 2nd and 3rd), had some lovely ante-post bets on Green Destiny for the Royal Hunt Cup and everything just went to hell.
I don’t think I need to outline any lessons from that, you can work them out for yourself.
Wow, thank you so much, Zarkava. It’s so nice of you to have posted such a caring response – i really appreciate it. Strangely enough £2.5k is the total amount i’m in the red by at this very moment, and it’s gone downhill since – you guessed it – Royal Ascot. You certainly don’t need to be any more transparent with your message; it’s a real up and down game, unpredictable at best, and things can go from bad to good and back again at the drop of a hat. It must’ve been a bit tormenting finding yourself in loss after those seemingly dead-certs came about and went, and you definitely deserved to reap the fruits of your well-placed bets today, so congratulations!
It just felt like a silent demon creeping up on me, and the moment
Workforce
lost, i realised i didn’t even have enough money to pay for a whole month’s rent any longer. I feel really stupid for what’s happened, but i figure that i basically have three weeks to come out £240 in the positive before i have to pack my bags and head home. I don’t have an awful lot left so i need to be shrewd now, but you’ve shown it can all turn around, and i think if someone somewhere can help me get out of the rut, i’ll be far more responsible in the future. I’m 21 by the way. Thanks again.
Gawd, if anyone has any fancies for the day’s remaining races i’d be delighted to hear them as times have been rough lately – and i mean
rough
. Eurgh. Well done, Zarkava – i hope my dead run picks up soon!
I guess i should send out a flare, or a call for help, or something, because i feel like i’ve lost track of things a bit this past month. I started betting on the gg’s about a month ago, and was £200 up after my past week (beginner’s luck i guess), but since then i’ve been slipping into the red progressively deeper, thinking all the time a winner would come along at any moment and write off my losses – trouble is, it hasn’t, and i’ve been dragged in to the extent that my bank balance has run almost dry. 1) I’m a student (nag all you want), and 2) I actually need a winner from somewhere! I feel really foolish for letting this happen. I had the money to stay in a room i rented over the summer before my losses started to mount up, now i can hardly afford to stay another two weeks.
I’m hoping
Elzaam
can win or place in the July Cup and help sort this mess out. I placed a bet a while back and i’m hoping it comes good before it’s too late. I’m optimistic and feel if i play my cards better i can recoup my losses – i’ve just played too loose and fast.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose. That’s the lesson i’ve now learnt, the hard way. I’m not asking for help, i just feel foolish and thought i’d cleanse myself by posting. Sorry all, i don’t mean to interrupt.
William Hill have a win both Coral Eclipse and Prix De L’arc De Triomphe offer on So You
Think
and
Workforce
, at 9 and 10-1 respectively. If your predictions are right Kingfisher, snaffling both up shouldn’t be a problem for your preferred horse if he goes well today
Edit: SYT out to evens as suspected, but WF out to 2-1 on both Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
Had a bit on
Armiger
, which thankfully came good! Great call Zomo. How did your others lays do yesterday?
These opening posts make for very intriguing reading, and my eyebrows certainly rose when i saw
Arcticality
drifting to the rear of the field earlier today as per your prediction! Keep it going, i’ll be following.
Sorry Rumpole, it’s just that i’d assume a lot of punters can only check the forums sporadically on weekdays as they’ll be working a day job, and the Daily Lays & Plays section of the Racing Forum website generally wouldn’t appear to be geared towards individual daily picks for specific races even though the title suggests it. More a user will begin a thread with a title or format which insinuates a succession of tips or suggestions will be posted, and the view-count of these threads will then grow more rapidly over time as the the thread and its contents becomes more established and trustworthy. It’s nothing against you specifically, just that one-off tips look rather more baron or throwaway by comparison due to the forum’s nature itself. Really great tip though, and thanks for posting!
…the horse i like is last years 3/1fav
Deauville flyer
,thankfully he was mullered several times in races i have backed against him as there is a big handicap in this fellow and if for once he can hold his position early he is imo the best handicapped horse in the race […] Deauville flyer will handle any ground and he stays forever,if it does turn soft it will help him to close any leader down as he takes a bit of time to get into full flight.
Hello Kingfisher! I’ve recently stumbled upon your thread, and it would appear you have a bunch of predominately mute spectators who have complimented your fertile bets and wished you the best of luck in the past. Sadly, i’m going to do the same – great job so far, and i hope the gg’s go your way in the future. Sorry for butting in – i’ll let you get on with it!
