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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Jamsym

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 104 total)
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  • in reply to: The Cheltenham Certainty. #1236116
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Every year at Cheltenham the bookmakers get rich off people assuming the (usually 3-5, this year apparently 8-10 bankers will win)

    This year wont be any different. When you have every race comprised of 10+ horses at peak fitness, trying 100%, with 10 fences+ to navigate and all seperated by 10 pounds of each other on the ratings, upsets are bound to happen.

    The play from a value perspective is to look for markets with each way shots against the odds on favs. (ie ‘bad ew races’)
    Also look for overbet favs happening if a few Mullins hotpots win at 1/3 the accumulators will mean the market is skewed even worse towards the short priced horses. If this happens there will be some juicy 2nd favs etc to get stuck into.

    in reply to: 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup #1236098
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Exciting race in prospect.

    I think Vautour can win. He has a ton going for him in the race. He is possibly better left handed, jumps superbly, has the most tactical speed in the race, is the class horse and will be 100% fit instead of 80% in the King George. With decent ground and if Ruby can switch him off early he should come there on the bridle 2 out.

    I find myself drawing comparisons to Best Mates first gold cup. At the time Best mate had finished 2nd in the Supreme and 2nd in the King George. He was regarded as more of a speed horse like Vautour is. However his class saw him through. I expect the same from Vautour.

    in reply to: You Tube Race library #503029
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    I just came across his channel on youtube. Fantastic! I was going to post here to let people know but it seems im a few years late to the party!

    Worth a bump anyway if anyone hasn’t seen it!

    https://www.youtube.com/user/espmadrid

    in reply to: 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup #474483
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Credit where it’s due TAPK for highlighting Hollywell. After that performance today it looks like he is a big contender for next years gold cup.

    in reply to: Cheltenham 2015 Ante post bets #472143
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Struggling with the quote button :oops:

    My thoughts are above.

    Also Holywell is a solid handicapper, it’s possible he can win some good races next season but i think it’s a bit of a stretch to put him in the same class/promise section as Taquin du Seuil. it should be evident the stable thinks this too seen as though i can find multiple quotes of Taquin du Seuil being aimed at the Gold Cup next year and you’d probably struggle to find one of Holywell being aimed at it :?:

    ‘Jewson’ winners dont win Gold Cups but handicappers do,

    Kind of a small sample size to be judging from really. 05-10 it was called the Jewson and 11-14 the JLT. Some stats and trends can be useful but a lot of them are hugely flawed by ridiculous sample size issues. It’s akin to us tossing a coin 3 times and it landing on heads. Therefore we conclude only heads can win this cointoss in the future. Everything needs to be taken on face value.

    in reply to: Cheltenham 2015 Ante post bets #472135
    Jamsym
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    Struggling with the quote button :oops:

    My thoughts are above.

    Also Holywell is a solid handicapper, it’s possible he can win some good races next season but i think it’s a bit of a stretch to put him in the same class/promise section as Taquin du Seuil. it should be evident the stable thinks this too seen as though i can find multiple quotes of Taquin du Seuil being aimed at the Gold Cup next year and you’d probably struggle to find one of Holywell being aimed at it :?:

    in reply to: Cheltenham 2015 Ante post bets #472127
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    The Ante-Post King

    Wrote:

    Taquin de Seuil would be going the Ryanair route if he was mine as he has stamina limitations,Class horse that he is. There’s not a pound between them in my book.

    I’m not sure why you think Taquin has stamina limitations. He has great form over 2m4f on heavy ground. Proper stamina sapping ground. He powered up the hill after 2m4f at cheltenham. I think a stamina test will suit him much better than 2m4f. If you watch him in soft/heavy ground races he really comes into his own at the end of races with his relentless galloping. Also at cheltenham he was 4L off the leaders on the home turn and just kept galloping, distance will suit him, as will softer ground.

    Some quotes:

    O’Neill said: “We’ve always believed in him since we’ve had him. It’s been frustrating a little bit this season because the races haven’t been run at any pace.

    “Today they went a good gallop which suited him.

    “I need to thank JP (McManus) for letting Tony off to ride him for us and his horse ran a blinder, but we needed all of AP today.

    “I was worried about the ground but they put a bit of water on last night.

    “He’s got a long stride, but AP knows him well and if he’d asked him for a couple of big leaps he’d have landed on top of them, he was clever as they were going a fair gallop.

    “It should ease the pain in AP’s back (after a fall on Wednesday).

    “We believe he’s got a lot of speed and we did try him over two miles.

    Hopefully he’ll step up to the Gold Cup trip now

    – you’ve got nothing if you haven’t got dreams in this game.”

    O’Neill said: "It was very kind of JP to offer us AP, but I’m sure he might have wanted to change his mind from the second-last – we appreciate it.

    "I’d say AP makes all the difference. I was full of confidence when JP said he could ride and everything went according to plan.

    "

    I’ve always liked this horse and he’s one for the future – hopefully he can step up on be a Gold Cup horse

    ."

    He deserves credit for being the only one held up to play a part at the business end, though, and he has some engine as he wasn´t always foot perfect on this ground. This also advertises his game attitude, and

    he´s likely to be campaigned with the Gold Cup in mind next term

    . He was given an ante-post quote of 25-1 for that.

    Jonjo O´Neill, trainer of Taquin Du Seuil: I did try him over two miles at Sandown, AP said afterwards we probably didn´t do the right things with him that day.

    He is proven at this trip and hopefully he´ll step up to the Gold Cup trip. He won over a mile seven on the Flat in France

    , you don´t know until you run them but if he does get the trip he is a proper horse.

    in reply to: Cheltenham 2015 Ante post bets #471920
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    http://imageshack.com/a/img542/3923/df1y.png

    I managed to win about £2k this year at Cheltenham so i decided to re-invest 25% of that in some antepost fancies. I’ll also be adding more to these bets each week or so by the odd £100 here and there until i have some big returns possible.

    Reasoning:

    The New One – badly hampered, gained many lengths from the last flight to the finish line and would probably have been in front in another few hundred yards. The firmish ground didn’t play to his strengths either. That ground massively favoured My Tent Or Yours who is a speedier horse but seems to be another Harchibald type who travels well but finds little. I wouldn’t fancy him in a battle.

    In addition to that we have now sadly lost Our Connor who made up roughly ~15% of this years Champion Hurdle book on price. Also Hurricane Fly who made up ~25% of the champion hurdle book on price this year is very unlikely to be able to reclaim the crown now at his age.

    What does The New One have to beat next year?

    My Tent Or Yours – If any year was going to be his year this would have been it. The ground came ideal and The New One lost many lengths due to no fault of his own. In my opinion My Tent is a bridle horse and Cheltenhams hill doesn’t suit him. I think if it’s genuine good to soft or soft next he will flounder up the hill.

    Hurricane Fly – fantastic horse, loads of respect for his achievements but quite simply age catches up to everyone.

    Vautour – very impressive in the supreme, but as we find season after season there is a big gap between novice races and the older generation. There’s also the chance he takes up novice chases next season and he’s far to short a price too consider backing at this point.

    Jezki – He is pretty solid to be fair. I cant find many chinks with him. I dont need to though because I’m getting 6/1 about The New One when the market should be about 7/4 The New One, 5/2 Jezki, 9/2 MTOY, 7/1 bar

    It is huge value at the moment at 6/1 i think. If it hadn’t got hampered i believe it would have won going away by 3L+ and won be as short as 2/1 now.

    Providing it doesn’t get injured i’d be happy to build a position at 6/1 for say £2500/£15000 over the next few weeks and fully expect to be able to lay my £2500 off on Betfair at something like 6/4 come march.

    Now for the Gold Cup but just a quick summary because i’ve spent far too long on this post already :D

    Taquin Du Seuil – The first thing to say is that this years Gold Cup was very weak. There were 6+ horses in with a chance over the last fence and it looks average form. I don’t fancy any of this years top 3 to place next year and they are definitely vulnerable to an improver. I didn’t back Taquin this year because i believed him to be more of a stayer and want softer ground. What he did impressed me. I think with another year of development he will be very suited to the gold cup trip. (Jonjo has said in the past he sees him as a gold cup horse also) This means with the weakness in the current Gold Cup division he will likely be aimed at some 3m races next season. 25/1 at the moment is a very big price about this improving 7 year old.

    in reply to: Calculating place over rounds? #470678
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Hey thanks.

    After a bit of searching google and reading up etc i came to this conclusion too.

    I did a rough chart of odds like you said and put them into an overround calc.

    Irving 0.75
    vautour 0.85
    wicklow 1.5
    gilg 2.25
    vanit 2.5
    joss3.5
    vas 3.75
    wester 4
    theliq 5
    splash 6.25
    wilde 6.25
    garde 8.25
    sgt 8.25
    three 6.25
    un 8.25
    25
    62.5
    62.5

    It looks like ~370%/500%

    meaning for every £1 you put on in the place market you’re getting £1.25 of value.

    in reply to: Supreme Novices 2013 #432032
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    There is huge value to be had in this race.

    William hill are giving 1st 5 places 1/4 odds. There is 12 runners but 2 of them are 500/1 no hopers, so you’re getting 1st 5 places at 1/4 odds in a 10runner field basically!

    I’ve opted for Un Atout i can’t see it being out of the 1st 5 and i think the soft ground and decent pace should play to his strengths.

    It wont suprise me if MTOY wins comfortably though but i think the value lies in Un Atout e/w with those terms.

    in reply to: Frankel – What did you think ? #423640
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Fantastic post, deserves to be bumped so others can i enjoy it as much as I just have.

    in reply to: Aiden O’Brien #416009
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Is anyone else a bit insulted by Aidan’s claim that Camelot is the best he’s trained? I can’t help feeling sorry for the likes of Rock Of Gibralter, Hawk Wing, Galileo, Mozart, Giants Causeway and probably a few more I’m forgetting who IMO were much better than Camelot. It just stinks of trying to salvage a stud price from the failed triple crown attempt. This years 3 year olds are V below average and Camelot got shown up in the Leger and the Arc. If he won the Leger there’s a 0% chance he would had ran in the Arc as they know his limitations.

    in reply to: Grand National – Who’s had enough? #400613
    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    Keep it as it is. Just hope all the once a year animal cruelty brigrade doesn’t spoilt it :(

    Maybe they should focus on animal testing where millions of animals per year are killed producing cosmetic products instead of horse racing where a tiny fraction die doing what they love and are acclaimed as heros in the process.

    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    1.45 – Aland Islands
    2.15 – Kudu Country & Australia Day
    2.50 – Third Intention
    3.25 – Chapoturgeon
    4.15 – Killyglen
    5.05 – Paintball
    5.35 – Population (nap)

    Jamsym
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    • Total Posts 109

    2.00 – Darlan
    2.30 – Join Together
    3.05 – Finians Rainbow
    3.40 – Fabalu
    4.15 – Cotton Mill & Fingal Bay
    4.50 – Tour D’Argent
    5.25 – Eleven Fifty Nine (nap)

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 104 total)