[Isamar]

Zarkava is right that foaling dates are important and a horse born in April is probably running against horses on average 1 to 2 months older which at 3 years old is perhaps a 3% to 6% difference.

However this fact is even more pronounced at 2 years old and p4jos has a good point in that Hearts of Fire won the Brocklesby against horses maybe 2 to 3 months older and he wasn’t even 2. 3 months at that age equates to a more pronounced advantage for the older horse than Hearts Of Fire will face in the Guineas.

The Brocklesby is a far cry from the 2000 Guineas but Hearts Of Fire only really improved when he stepped up in distance to 7f and so the fact he won the first flat race of the season over possibly an inadequate 5f, and he wasn’t even 2 years old, is quite remarkable.

Looks a decent EW to me at 33/1

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