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11 points down for the month of July with just one winner. Not an ideal start which got worse today – couldn’t get the time to get a proper study in which resulted in me letting Indraahar run unbacked today. She was the filly of Mick Halfords that went into my notebook at Fairyhouse. She won well today which is nice in one way because it shows the eyes are working but obviously the brain isn’t.
I said I don’t like betting at Sligo much but tomorrow I see a bet.
8:30 Sligo – Lagostovegas 4/1 Ladbrokes
David Harry Kelly’s four year old is a filly I like a lot. She’s honest and loves a good dig in the ground. I think this track will suit her as she should try and make it despite the possibility of being taken on for the lead by Sister Blandina and Ringside Humour. The ground is a big factor to this filly – when she has it she is much more at home and takes her form to the next level while also possibly not playing to the strengths of some of her rivals. she has been mixing it on the flat and over jumps and has chased home some promising sorts including Rashaan, Footpad and Ivanovich Gorbatov over hurdles.
Ringside Humour is having her third race in a week and while she takes her racing well, she is surely opposable at the prices off top weight and after having two hard races at the Galway Festival. Sister Blandina is very interesting – three year old taking on her elders, stable in flying form and a nice low weight. However, this is a huge step up in class off a 16lbs higher mark than Killarney and at Killarney Killian Leonard claimed 7lbs off her too! She is also running from 4lbs out of the handicap. Dancing Noretta has been running well off featherweights recently but her best runs have been on better ground. Soul Searcher is a complete unknown having come over from France and Dancing Soprano is having her first run for almost 2 years having looked very promising earlier in her career.Bet: 1pt win 4/1 Ladbrokes
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
I have to say that while yesterday was again disappointing, I’m a bit happier as I think I read the races a bit better. Having said that I wasn’t expecting Brokopondo to be ridden with quite as much restraint given his good draw. He had a good draw at Down Royal in June and was settled in mid division, and from his good draw here I thought he might have been given a slightly more positive ride given the lack of winners that come from behind at this track – especially when the ground is good.
Anyway moving on to the last day and there is a couple of fancies:
3.20 – Kelinni 5/1 Paddy Power
Kevin Ryan’s charge won a similar contest in Leopardstown off 105 – he races off 107 today. Ground and trip look about right and with the plum draw in 1 for a horse who likes to be handy. he should be hard to beat with Pat Smullen booked. If the ground was on the firmer side of good I would have Eastern Rules as a massive player here and will continue to watch him closely – 7f on fast ground and a truly run race is what he needs and I think his turn isn’t far away.4.30 – Bally Longford – 13/2 Ladbrokes
Henry De Bromheads team are in fine fettle at the moment and I’m expecting last years winner off just 4lbs higher to have been laid out for this. He’s actually won at the last two festivals and puts his 100% record at the track on the line. On the bare form – he beat Mr Fiftyone by over 2l in last years renewal getting 4lbs – this year he gets 10lbs. Granted he will have to jump a lot better than last time at Wexford that still wasn’t a bad run considering it was his first in 9 months – he wasn’t even beaten that far behind Xsquared who is in the form of his life.Bets:
3.20 – Kelinni 1pt win 5/1 Paddy Power
4.30 – Bally Longford 1pt win 13/2 Ladbrokes
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
Its been a funny week alright. Many friends have made plenty but what’s typically a very profitable week for me, has been a disaster – maybe I’m trying too hard to hit the target who knows! Ivan Grozny was much the best yesterday. I would have been worried about his new running style had he been in the hurdle as I’m sure he would have zipped around the sharp bends but got into trouble up the hill but the fact he can (half) settle in front must open up a lot of doors. It took Declan Mc Donagh a couple of furlongs to pull him up – he only grabbed a proper hold of the bridle after the line!
Couple I fancy for today.
5.00 – Cairdiul
A real course specialist, Iggy Maddens charge was unlucky during the week and despite being drawn wider than ideal, I can see him going very close again. On last years C&D second to Beau Satchel, there isn’t a lot between them in the weights but with the first time visor and Seamie Heffernan in the plate, it could swing it in the local horses favour. There are of course plenty of dangers including last years first and second Chille Billie and Sister Slew. I had a few bob on this horse at 7/1 last night but for the purpose of this I will use the price he is at time of writing.
Bet: 1pt win 9/2 Ladbrokes
5.35 – Brokopondo
A real honest horse, this lad gives his running every time. Having placed here last September, albeit off a much lower rating, he was left with a lot do to that day and I marked him up for it. He has improved no end this year with wins at Dundalk and Down Royal. Having handled Down Royal and placed here last year, I’m sure the track will suit and that the drying ground will help. Things didn’t work out at Fairyhouse with him being left with a lot to do but with a nice draw today and having three weeks off to be freshened up, I think he is the bet of the race.
There is a bit of a gamble starting on Tony Martins horse after a couple of eye catching runs but the price is surely too short for what he’s achieved at the 3/1 mark.Bet: 1 pt win 7/1 Ladbrokes
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
Taking a bruising this week! Busy again not much time for a write up but heres the two for today to avoid!
4.45 – Tigris River 9/1 Ladbrokes 1pt win
5.25 – Northern Sky 9/1 Ladbrokes 1pt win
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
The forecast showers really did get into the ground more than I expected and if you offered me my money back before racing I probably would have took it off Hasanour. He ran a cracking race to be fair to him but top of the ground is really what he needs. He just couldn’t quicken again out of the ground. Take nothing away from the winner she really is some filly on the up all of the time.
An early look at tomorrows card and the feature is the Galway Plate. My usual bet in big handicaps like these is two win bets and 9 times out of 10 I will try to take on the favourite. Not this year. No marks for being original but I just cannot see past Road To Riches. He is an absolute class act. Don’t forget this horse was third in a Gold Cup carrying this weight – it’ll be no problem to him. There’s some class in the opposition but nothing in this league. He will have no problem with the ground, the trip or the track and he is the best horse in the race by a long way. He should be able to concede this weight to these lads and still win.
Bet: 2pts win 9/2 Paddy Power
Will probably have a couple of further bets.
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
No joy yesterday – Roconga didn’t handle the track at all and not good enough. Other two beaten too far to say it was their running. Onto today, fairly busy so not much time for a write up (I’ll put it in later if time) but the bet for today is:
7.20 – Hasanour 1pt win 10/1 Ladbrokes
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
Thanks VTC! Hope its a good one for you too. Its always a great weeks racing as its as competitive as it gets despite what people say about the grade.
Decided to include My Fantasea (7.50) as a bet tonight. The two runs in maidens last season over a mile led me to keep an eye on him once stepped up in trip. He just held on in Dundalk this season once stepped up. That was run at a moderate gallop and he was quite keen and possibly fresh as John Oxx does take them along slowly. I’ve no doubt this lad was left with some improvement in him. He battled on well but looked to be tired close home despite always holding the runner up. Rather than bare form, its my eye that has me drawn to this fella as I think he will improve with a decent pace as Admodum, Baliyka and Restive all may want to be prominent. It could be set up for something to come late. John Oxx has been coming into form recently with a couple of winners and many placed horses in the last few weeks.
Bet; 1pt win 13/2 Ladbrokes.
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
A quiet week on the betting side of things in the lead up to Galway but that’s usually the case. Some great performances on Oaks weekend obviously Seventh Heaven improving to take the feature being the highlight.
Galway festival is my favourite time of year from a betting perspective. I love the competitive ‘lower grade’ stuff and with the track being so unique it only adds to it. The first day brings about a couple of bets.
Zebgrey (6.50) is one of the more exposed looking types in the field. She has plenty of experience and was once rated as high as 92 after some cracking efforts as a two year old. While that rating probably wasn’t warranted, I’m sure she still has more to come off 70. She stays further than this which is vital at Galway – its quite lung busting up the hill, and is coming into this off the back of two wins in her last three runs. I know there is a couple of these who have a swing at the weights with this filly and the 10lbs turnaround with siege of Boston could be crucial (although 7f is surely too short) but I’m willing to believe Ado Mc Guinness’ filly has more class and that will shine through at the business end. Also, Dermot Weld could have a very well handicapped filly in heartful who could be thrown in off her mark if her run behind Seventh Heaven is taken at face value. I try to take on Dermot Weld where I can at Galway as his horses are often underpriced (that’s not to say I wont be getting stuck into some of them this week – I will) and like to look for a value alternative. When they’re all stopping in front, I think with some luck, Zebgrey could be bang there and at the prices is worth supporting.
Bet: 1 pt win 8/1 Ladbrokes
Roconga (7.20) is a horse I know quite well and think I have a good grasp on. He needs good ground, a strong gallop to carry him into a race and a stiff finish. He’s got all of those things here and with some luck, can see him going very close. He warmed up for this with a good run at Fairyhouse where he was arguably unlucky not to be closer and off this rating, should be competitive. Declan Lavery rides and having won a bumper on him, knows him well enough. He is drawn 10 which should be fine to get some cover and get him switched off but luck in running is needed. There are lots of dangers as it is one of the most competitive handicaps of the festival but I feel he will go close and is worth supporting at 10/1.
Bet: 1 pt win 10/1 Ladbrokes
There is another one (my fantasea 7.50) that I’m keen on but will do a bit more looking before committing to a bet.
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
Nice to get off the mark yesterday. Horse put his head down and battled to the line. Schubert battled with him the whole way to be fair to him and may have just turned the corner. Went good gallop early and front two pulled well clear so think it was definitely a handy enough race. Time reflected that.
Usually Killarney doesn’t really interest me from a punting perspective but one I am interested is Zemario in the 2m1f handicap(7.30). He has ran in this race the past three years before turning up at Galway and has fared well on each occasion. In 2013 on good to firm ground he was drawn low and rated 69. It was a messy enough race and he lost his place before making good ground up in the straight eventually finishing third. 2014 was perhaps the best running of this race he has ran in and off 63, Zemario finished fifth, beaten about 2 and a half lengths. Last years running would win him this years race as he finished second off 58 to Modem who went on to win the amateur riders race at the Galway Festival and who won two further hurdle races before claiming third spot in the Grade Two hurdle at Down Royal. He runs off the same mark tonight.
Theres plenty of negatives – his win record (just one win), his opposition being in such good form and the fact that he cannot be improving at 10. However, if he runs the race he ran last year I think he’ll nearly beat this lot.
Bet: 1pt win Zemario 7:30 Killarney 1pt win 12/1 Ladbrokes
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
Dundalk host their annual July 12th meeting tomorrow. For those of you who might not be aware, July 12th is a big day in Northern Ireland where the Orange Order have the pinnacle of their marching season. The majority in attendance in Dundalk tomorrow will be people visiting from across the border who might not want to see their neighbours marching.
Anyway onto the racing. One I quite like is in the 1 mile 3yr old only maiden and its the Kevin Prendergast trained Waarif. The son of Arcano has had two runs so far, the first being in a mile maiden at Navan where he actually finished behind the likely favourite today – Kidd Malibu. However, having travelled well enough he was asked to go between a gap that was closing about a furlong and a half out. He looked inexperienced and wouldn’t go for it and ended up getting cut off and that was that. He was tenderly handled thereafter and was beaten about six lengths. Of the second placed horse, he looked to have the race won and went about a neck up only to relinquish that advantage close home.
Stepped up to a mile and a quarter at Naas on his next start, Waarif was sent off a seemingly unfancied 14/1 wearing a tongue tie. Having travelled well into the race, it looked like he was going to go very close only to be outstayed close home by two horses who went on to run respectable races at the Royal meeting. The tongue tie had me thinking that maybe there was a worry about his wind but the form of the horses in front tells me that he is well able to win a race of this nature even if there is a slight issue and the fact he drops back to an easier mile should help him greatly.
Kidd Malibu reopposes and in my opinion blew his chance at Navan, which the same could also be said about his next run where he looked to have the measure of Flying fairies only for that rival to be well on top close home. Also, with the form of the Weld horses coming into account at this time of year, I’m keen to take him on.
Schubert is beginning to look a bit unreliable although it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win a maiden of this nature on the bridle if it all fell right. However, with the doubt about his attitude, he is also taken on.
The one I’m perhaps most worried about is the filly – Star of Kings. She brings some good juvenile form to the table without quite looking the most genuine but with the blinds on and her tongue being tied first time, she could be a different proposition and dangerous to discount. However, I feel I’m on the colt who is open to the most progress today and feel he will take some beating with doubts about some of his market principals. The price just seals the deal and while I cant avail of the 7/2 available with Coral (no account), the 3/1 with William Hill will do just fine for a 1pt win bet.Bet: 1pt win Waarif 3/1 William Hill.
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
Thanks for the welcome VTC! Hopefully we can bounce some good ones off each other!!
Had a bit of mixed feelings today. Obviously Raymonda under performed which seems to be a theme with a few of Dermot Welds horses in the last 2-3 weeks. Obviously its pre – Galway time and this happens every year but usually the good ones hold their form. Also, disappointing we couldn’t get off to a nice start – failed by a head. However, I’m happy the filly ran a race and looks to have recaptured some of her form from last year although I have been questioning her attitude all day. Its my opinion that she had plenty of time to go past the winner if she really wanted to – but that’s the opinion of a losing punter!!!!
Onwards and upwards. Took a couple of horses from the meeting to keep an eye on. One is Captain Cullen who ran in the 6f handicap (2:35). He was kept busy last season running 16 times and his return from a break looked a good one to me as he even looked big as a bull during the race – he’ll strip fitter for sure and plugged on. He’s quite a funny horse as he has won handicaps over 5f,6f,7f and 8f. I’ll be keeping e close eye on him if he turns up for a strongly run 6f premier handicap at the Curragh soon!
Another one that caught my eye and I really like this one is Indrahar who ran in the 7f 3yr old only handicap (4:15). This filly finished second to Smash Williams in a maiden last season before winning one at Dundalk. She still didn’t look the complete package and today she picked up from off the pace and got going once the bird had flown. The winner is improving with every run and for her first run of the season, that was more than good enough to go into my notebook. Whether or not she is a filly for Galway I’m not sure but I’ll be paying close attention to where she goes next.Racing goes to Killarney tomorrow which is a track I have no luck at which is a pity as its on all week!! Although there are one or two in the handicaps that caught my eye, there are plenty of showers forecast tomorrow so the ground will probably become testing and I couldn’t commit to a bet just yet! Once I’m sure of ground conditions I’ll probably have a bet later in the week! For now, watching brief for me! Good luck!
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
Hi all!
First of all I do apologise if this is in the wrong area. Please feel free to remove if thats the case.
Just a newbie saying Hi! From my username you can probably see I like Irish Racing! I’m fairly passionate about it and tend to only bet on it (obviously there are exceptions).
I was hoping to maybe post a few of my ramblings on here in another thread if that was okay along with a few selections just to keep a tab on how I’m doing on the punting front.
All the best!
Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people. - W.C. Fields
