[hovis1956]

Thanks again, Hovis.

Can I ask what online exchange/bookie you guys use to place the Lucky 15 bets?

I’m interested in giving that a shot. I’m using Betdaq purely because I can bet low.

I know Paddy Power do the Lucky 15 but I’m still figuring out how to place the bets.

Anyway, thanks.

And good luck.

I use Ladbroke and Totesport for my Multiple bets and Betfair for my Singles

Totesport does a toteswinger which similar to RFC but your 2 horses can finish in the 1st 3 places in any order for a payout

[hovis1956]

Ah right fair enough, well I’ve just backed your lucky 15 for 0.10p each way, est returns of about £2000 or something ridiculous, so we’ll see what we can rake in today!

Good luck on your bets!

Good Luck with your bets today

Skytrain scored high on my system but did not meet all the criteria to select it.

Do not have anything in that race I don’t think.

[hovis1956]

Chepstow 17:40 – Dashwood
Chepstow 18:10 – Royal Sea
Chepstow 18:40 – Admirable Duque
Chepstow 19:10 – Frozen Over
Chepstow 19:40 – Upper Lambourn – E/W
Chepstow 20:10 – Dark Lane
———————————-
Taunton 17:50 – Courtesy Call – Forresters Folly – RFC
Taunton 18:20 – Falcon Island
Taunton 18:50 – Cry of Freedom
Taunton 19:20 – Lady Bridget
Taunton 19:50 – Stormyisland Ahead – Solitary Palm – RFC
————————————————-
Tipperary 18:30 – Allegra Tak – KW
Tipperary 20:00 – De Benno –

[hovis1956]

Ah okay thanks for that, it’s a big help. Is there exceptions though? I.e you say anything over 60 days is discarded I assume.. Yet Jessie’s Spirit hasn’t ran for 573 days?

If the horse scores more than 70 on my system then I will put it up as an E/W bet

In some races you have to take chance on long lay offs.

Some horses run better after a long lay off.

You have to research this to find out though.

System score was what made me choose Jessie’s Spirit as a value E/W bet

[hovis1956]

Selections for Today

The races with Stars next to them are Recommended Bets

Patent
Redcar 14:30 – Haajes – *
Redcar 16:00 – Hamoody – *
Sedgefield 15:10 – Ballyvoneen – *
——————————————–
Patent

Sedgefield 16:40 – Tahiti Pearl – *
Lingfield 14:20 – Honest Strike – *
Lingfield 16:20 – Avonvalley – *
——————————————-
Lucky 15

Redcar 15:30 – Jessies Spirit
Redcar 16:30 – Mixed Message
Lingfield 16:20 – Avonvalley
Lingfield 16:50 – Ready

———————————————–
Redcar 14:30 – Haajes – *
Redcar 15:30 – Jessies Spirit
Redcar 16:00 – Hamoody – * – KW
Redcar 16:30 – Mixed Message – KW
Redcar 17:00 – Rocket Ronnie – KW- Surround Sound – RFC
Redcar 17:35 – Multifact
————————————–
Sedgefield – 2.40 – Cape Explorer –
Sedgefield 15:10 – Ballyvoneen – *
Sedgefield – 3.40 – Breeze With Ease – KW
Sedgefield 16:40 – Tahiti Pearl – KW – *
Sedgefield 17:10 – Ballybriggan – KW
—————————————
Lingfield 14:20 – Honest Strike – KW- *
Lingfield 15:50 – Tornado Force – E/W on Scamperdale
Lingfield 16:20 – Avonvalley – *
Lingfield 16:50 – Ready – KW
Lingfield 17:25 – Flying Tempo – KW
————————————–

[hovis1956]

Hi Hovis, been following this for a while now and just been using it to back my own selections. I.e, if we both have the same selection, i’ll definitely take it.

Been returning a steady profit, and whilst I appreciate that you wouldn’t want to reveal the method in the madness, I was hoping you’d be able to give some insight into how your system selects the horses? I’m hoping to design my own system, but deciding which parameters to collect data for is proving difficult.

You get some pretty good winners, especially on the flat, short distance sprints.

Thanks in advance.

My system looks at the following criteria

Days since last run ( Anything with less than 60 days)
Jockey/Trainer strike rate ( Anything over 30%)
Speed Ratings
Ground Condition
C?D Winners
Stall Number
BHA Ranking ( Anything below 5 )

I do not do Maiden Races ( Not enough information)
I do not races with less than 6 runners unless system selects high score for horse.

Hope this helps.

[hovis1956]

Hi Hovis, been following this for a while now and just been using it to back my own selections. I.e, if we both have the same selection, i’ll definitely take it.

Been returning a steady profit, and whilst I appreciate that you wouldn’t want to reveal the method in the madness, I was hoping you’d be able to give some insight into how your system selects the horses? I’m hoping to design my own system, but deciding which parameters to collect data for is proving difficult.

You get some pretty good winners, especially on the flat, short distance sprints.

Thanks in advance.

My system looks at the following criteria

Days since last run ( Anything with less than 60 days)
Jockey/Trainer strike rate ( Anything over 30%)
Speed Ratings
Ground Condition
C?D Winners
Stall Number
BHA Ranking ( Anything below 5 )

Hope this helps.

[hovis1956]

Warchief

I have re-wrote my system suftware and the results today look promising

I do a £10 stake on the race
If I do not win after 4 races I stop

As you can see below
1st – place

Southwell 14:40 – Kings Grey – KWM – 1st 3/1
Southwell 15:10 – Adios Alonso – 1st – 4/1
Southwell 17:30 – Starlight Air – KW – 1st – 9/1
Ascot 16:45 – Rockalong – MW – 1st – 10/3
Pontefract 15:20 – Eutropius – 1st – 8/1
Pontefract 16:30 – Theodore Gericault – MW 1st – 7/2

2nd – place

Southwell 14:10 – Kayfton Pete – MW – 2nd – 4/1
Southwell 16:55 – Floral Spinner – 2nd – 7/4
Ascot 14:00 – Justice Day – MW – 2nd – 11/8

3rd – place

Ascot 15:00 – Stipulate – KWM – 3rd – 11/4
Ascot 16:10 – Hasopop – MW -3rd – 5/1
Pontefract 15:55 – Abilene – -3rd

[hovis1956]

Caulfields Venture – 1.40 – Southwell
Adios Alonso in the 3.10 at Southwell

Double
——————————————–
Southwell 14:10 – Kayfton Pete
Southwell 14:40 – Kings Grey
Ascot 15:00 – Stipulate

Patent
———————————–
Pontefract 15:20 – Eutropius
Pontefract 15:55 – Abilene
Ascot 16:10 – Hasopop

Patent
—————————————-
Southwell 13:40 – Farewellatmidnight
Ascot 16:45 – Rockalong

Double
————————————
Southwell 13:40 – Farewellatmidnight – Caulfields Venture – KWM
Southwell 14:10 – Kayfton Pete – MW
Southwell 14:40 – Kings Grey – KWM
Southwell 15:10 – Adios Alonso – E/W on Granwood
Southwell 15:45 – Earcomesthedream – KW
Southwell 16:55 – Floral Spinner
Southwell 17:30 – Starlight Air – KW
—————————————–
Ascot 14:00 – Justice Day – MW
Ascot 14:30 – Cruck Realta – KW- Typhoon Lily – RFC
Ascot 15:00 – Stipulate – KWM
Ascot 15:35 – Steps To Freedom – MW- E/W on Buckland
Ascot 16:10 – Hasopop – MW
Ascot 16:45 – Rockalong – MW
————————————
Pontefract 15:20 – Eutropius
Pontefract 15:55 – Abilene
Pontefract 16:30 – Theodore Gericault – MW
Pontefract 17:00 – Hartwright – KW
Pontefract 17:35 – Gold Show – KWM- Blades Lad – KWM – RFC
——————————————

[hovis1956]

RSA Clairwood 13:05 – Radio Waves – Maluti
RSA Clairwood 13:40 – Euphoria – Brora
RSA Clairwood 14:15 – Sutherfeni – Faire Silvano
RSA Clairwood 15:30 – Cherry Tripper – Honolulu
RSA Clairwood 16:05 – Last Shot
—————————————
Lingfield 14:00 – Back On The Trail – KW – Fiducia
Lingfield 14:30 – Maiden – No selection
Lingfield 15:00 – Gaul Wood –
Lingfield 15:30 – Angels Calling
Lingfield 16:00 – Not Now Blondie – KW – Girl Of Cadiz – KW
Lingfield 16:30 – Maiden – No selection
Lingfield 17:00 – Safwaan
———————————
Yarmouth 15:10 – George Cinq – Yourartisonfire
Yarmouth 15:40 – Khubala
Yarmouth 16:10 – Tahlia Ree – Olney Lass – KW
Yarmouth 16:40 – Silver Alliance – KW
Yarmouth 17:10 – Corn Maiden – KW
———————————–
Bath 14:50 – Lady Lunchalot
Bath 15:50 – Silver Samba – KW
Bath 16:20 – Rioja Day- E/W
Bath 16:50 – Mubtadi – KW
Bath 17:20 – Picansort – KW
——————————–

[hovis1956]

RSA Arlington 14:25 – Stormy Coast – Pamela Sue
RSA Arlington 15:05 – Drill Sargeant – Ice Flag
RSA Arlington 15:40 – Zezinho Campeao
RSA Arlington 16:15 – Sir Isaac
——————————————-
Wolverhampton 13:50 – Striker Torres – KWM – (N)- Prince Of Passion
Wolverhampton 14:20 – Silly Billy
Wolverhampton 14:50 – Dark Lane – KWM – (N) – Desert Icon – RFC
Wolverhampton 15:20 – Rock Song – KW
Wolverhampton 15:50 – Viva Vettori – MW – (N) – Honey Of A Kitten – KW
Wolverhampton 16:20 – (Maiden) — Call Ahead – MW
Wolverhampton 16:50 – Sylvia Pankhurst
Wolverhampton 17:20 – Monsieur Pontaven – KW
—————————————-
Towcester 14:00 – Western Kate – KWM – (N)- E/W on Bellosguardo
Towcester 14:30 – (Maiden) – Sharivarry – Rebel High
Towcester 15:00 – Jameel – Farbreaga – KWM – (N)
Towcester 15:30 – Roi De Garde
Towcester 16:00 – (Novice)- Twelve Roses – MW – Call A Truce – KW – RFC
Towcester 16:30 – Oranger – KW
Towcester 17:00 – Rising Teal
Towcester 17:30 – Bonnets Vino – MW (N)
———————————–

Kelso 14:10 – (Maiden) – Ueueteotl
Kelso 14:40 – Soul Magic
Kelso 15:10 – Purcells Bridge – KW – Merrydown – RFC
Kelso 15:40 – Or de Grugy – KW
Kelso 16:10 – (Novice) – Sleep In First
Kelso 16:40 – Waltz Darling – MW – (N)- E/W on Sam Lord
Kelso 17:10 – (Novice)- Buckstruther – MW – Senor Alco – MW- RFC
———————————–

[hovis1956]

Doncaster 13:30 – Tamara Bay
Doncaster 14:00 – See The Storm
Doncaster 14:30 – See Clearly – E/W on Ficelle
Doncaster 15:05 – Disclaimer – KWM (N)
Doncaster 15:35 – Khudoua – KWM – E/W on Woodacre
Doncaster 16:10 – Zaplamation
Doncaster 16:45 – Rivellino
Doncaster 17:15 – Another Citizen
————————————-
Sandown 13:40 – Barracuda Boy – MW – Smoothtalkinrascal – MW – RFC – (N)
Sandown 14:10 – Yarroom
Sandown 14:45 – Highland Knight – MW – (N)
Sandown 15:15 – Al Waab – MW
Sandown 15:50 – Mujazif – MW
Sandown 16:25 – Muthmera
Sandown 17:00 – Blue Jack – MW
—————————————–
Perth 14:20 – The Cockney Mackem – MW – Jimmy the Hat – MWK
Perth 14:55 – Opera Og – MWK – (N)
Perth 15:25 – Goat Castle
Perth 16:00 – Aneyeforaneye – KW
Perth 16:35 – Cerium – E/W on Etxalar – KW
Perth 17:05 – Daasij – KW
Perth 17:35 – Frankies Promise
——————————————
—————————
Lucky 15 Bet

Austria : Erste Liga : First Vienna v Hartberg – First Vienna to win @ EVS

Austria : Erste Liga : Altach v A.Lustenau – Altach to win @ EVS

France : Ligue 2 : Auxerre v Chateauroux – Auxerre to win @ 10/11

France : Ligue 2 : Niort v Nantes – Nantes to win @ 7/5

Lucky 15. Odds as per Bet365

[hovis1956]

Beverley 14:05 – La Sylphe – 1st- KWM – Dream Vale -crap
Beverley 14:35 – Hows Life – 1st- MW – Cinderslipper -3rd – KW (My selection for this race)
Beverley 14:35 – Multisure – Byrons Dream – 2nd (My System selection)
Beverley 15:05 – Hiddon Coin – N/R – Marshland – KWM- E/W on Delores Rocket-crap
Beverley 15:35 – Arizona John – 2nd – E/W on Sir Boss -crap
Beverley 16:05 – Flying Applause -crap
Beverley 16:35 – Dolphin Village 2nd – Nine Iron -3rd – KWM
Beverley 17:10 – Awake My Soul – KWM – 1st
———————————
Perth 14:15 – Right To Rule -crap – KW – Yes Daddy -crap – MW
Perth 14:45 – Urban Kode – 1st
Perth 15:15 – Nodforms Violet – KW – Fell
Perth 15:45 Seebright – KWM- 1st
Perth 16:15 – Micheal Flips 2nd – MW- Mac Aeda-4th
Perth 16:45 – Sotovik – KWM -crap
Perth 17:20 – Now This Is It – MW 2nd
———————————-
Wolverhampton 14:25 – Lady Frances – MW- 1st
Wolverhampton 14:55 – Jake The Snake – KWM- 1st
Wolverhampton 15:25 – Mr Plod – KW – 2nd
Wolverhampton 15:55 – Dontpaytheferryman – KW -crap
Wolverhampton 16:30 – Lowther – 1st – 5/1
Wolverhampton 17:00 – Just Five – N/R
Wolverhampton 17:35 – Dark Lane -3rd

[hovis1956]

Beverley 14:05 – La Sylphe – KWM – Dream Vale – RFC
Beverley 14:35 – Hows Life – MW – Cinderslipper – KW (My selection for this race)
Beverley 14:35 – Multisure – Byrons Dream (My System selection)
Beverley 15:05 – Hiddon Coin – N/R – Marshland – KWM- E/W on Delores Rocket
Beverley 15:35 – Arizona John – E/W on Sir Boss
Beverley 16:05 – Flying Applause
Beverley 16:35 – Dolphin Village – Nine Iron – KWM – RFC
Beverley 17:10 – Awake My Soul – KWM
———————————
Perth 14:15 – Right To Rule – KW – Yes Daddy – MW – RFC
Perth 14:45 – Urban Kode
Perth 15:15 – Nodforms Violet – KW
Perth 15:45 Seebright – KWM
Perth 16:15 – Micheal Flips – MW- Mac Aeda – RFC
Perth 16:45 – Sotovik – KWM
Perth 17:20 – Now This Is It – MW
———————————-
Wolverhampton 14:25 – Lady Frances – MW
Wolverhampton 14:55 – Jake The Snake – KWM
Wolverhampton 15:25 – Mr Plod – KW
Wolverhampton 15:55 – Dontpaytheferryman – KW
Wolverhampton 16:30 – Lowther
Wolverhampton 17:00 – Just Five
Wolverhampton 17:35 – Dark Lane

[hovis1956]

Beverley 14:05 – La Sylphe – KW – Dream Vale – RFC
Beverley 14:35 – Hows Life – Cinderslipper – KW (My selection for this race)
Beverley 14:35 – Multisure – Byrons Dream (My System selection)
Beverley 15:05 – Hiddon Coin – E/W on Delores Rocket
Beverley 15:35 – Arizona John – E/W on Sir Boss
Beverley 16:05 – Flying Applause
Beverley 16:35 – Dolphin Village – Nine Iron – KW – RFC
Beverley 17:10 – Awake My Soul – KW
———————————
Perth 14:15 – Right To Rule – KW – Yes Daddy – RFC
Perth 14:45 – Urban Kode
Perth 15:15 – Nodforms Violet – KW
Perth 15:45 Seebright – KW
Perth 16:15 – Micheal Flips – Mac Aeda – RFC
Perth 16:45 – Sotovik – KW
Perth 17:20 – Perth 17:20
———————————-
Wolverhampton 14:25 – Lady Frances
Wolverhampton 14:55 – Jake The Snake – KW
Wolverhampton 15:25 – Mr Plod – KW
Wolverhampton 15:55 – Dontpaytheferryman – KW
Wolverhampton 16:30 – Lowther
Wolverhampton 17:00 – Just Five
Wolverhampton 17:35 – Dark Lane

[hovis1956]

Catterick 13:35 – Viking Warrior – crap – MW – E/W on Boy The Bell -crap
Catterick 14:05 – Tongalooma -crap
Catterick 14:35 – Eastern Dragon – -4th MW – E/W on Panama Cat -crap
Catterick 15:10 – Moes Place -crap- Go Far -2nd – MW
Catterick 15:40 – Alta Lilea-1st – Gabrial The Master -2nd – KWM – RFC
Catterick 16:15 – Alhaarth Beauty – KW -crap
Catterick 16:45 – Bright Applause -1st
Catterick 17:15 – Marcus Caesar -4th
——————————–
Epsom 14:20 – Sandfrankskipsgo -crap- E/W on Ajjaadd – MW –1st
Epsom 14:50 – Beyond Conceit -1st – MW – E/W on Brockwell – KWM -crap
Epsom 15:20 – Mister Impatience – MW-crap
Epsom 15:55 – Lady Loch – KW – crap
Epsom 16:30 – One Pekan-1st – Double Discount -4th
Epsom 17:00 – Mumeyez – Magical Rose – E/W on Both-crap

———————————————
Perth 15:00 – The Cockney Mackem -crap- kWM – Valleyofmilan -2nd – KW
Perth 15:30 – Blazin White Face – KW -crap
Perth 16:05 – Beeves – KW -crap
Perth 16:35 – Kie – KW-1st
Perth 17:05 – Dickie Henderhoop – Delightfully – MW – E/W on Both -crap
Perth 17:35 – Requin -crap
Perth 18:10 – Deepsand-1st
——————————–
Punchestown 15:40 – Ross Na Righ – Total Excitement – -crap – Both E/W
Punchestown 16:20 – Call Me Bubbles -crap- KW- Bayan – N/R – KW- RFC
Punchestown 16:55 – Ballycasey – KW -3rd
Punchestown 17:30 – Riverside Theatre -crap
Punchestown 18:05 – Outlander -crap – KW- The Liquidator -1st – RFC
Punchestown 18:40 – Sumkindasuprstar – E/W -crap
Punchestown 19:15 – Fairy Island -crap

[hovis1956]

Sedgefield 16:40 – Scriptwriter
Sedgefield 17:10 – Houseparty – MW – Trend Is My Friend – KW- RFC
Sedgefield 17:45 – Minella Theatre – MW
Sedgefield 18:20 – Smart Act – KW
Sedgefield 18:55 – Groomed – KW
Sedgefield 19:25 – King Fontaine
Sedgefield 19:55 – Phase Shift – MWK
—————————————–
Taunton 16:50 – Dane Cottage – E/W
Taunton 17:25 – The Good Guy – MW
Taunton 17:55 – Suerte Al Salto – MWK
Taunton 18:30 – Speed Steed – MWK
Taunton 19:05 – Party Palace
Taunton 19:40 – Topthorn – KW
Taunton 20:10 – Molly Maid – MWK- E/W on Boracha

[Author]

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