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I also like the look of Opera Gift. Bit worried about lack of experience (same with Longsider – another fancied one). I really should stop looking at the stats! Also fancy Rajinsky (ew at a bigger price) providing it pitches up / gets in (currently no 21).
TBH I’m not taking the Feltham thing too literally this year. Its traditionally thought that its won by a different sort of horse, flat track etc. But Coneygree has won at Chelts this year. More of a worry is that it hasn’t had a ‘proper’ race, ie it hasn’t had to fight hard to win its novice chases thus far. I don’t like backing horses in this race only to find out they buckle when being tested for the first time. Of those that have a defeat, Southfield Theatre appeals most to me.
And stats and trends do take account of form, so the above statement is a bit of a generalisation.
I’m judging Coneygree the same way I judge all horses when I look the stats. For example only 1 horse has won the RSA in recent years undefeated as a chaser. Denman. However, if what the handicapper feels is true (that Coneygree is at or above that level) then even a stat fanatic like me has to agree that Coneygree probably wins. All of the main RSA protagonists have stats to overcome. Its just that TYM and Don Poli fall down on several. Great race in prospect – of that there’s no doubt.
All good stuff Steve. Does the Feltham stat worry you? 19 winners have tried to double up and none succeeded.
Fair point, and hate to labour the stats angle, but you can win the Neptune with a break like that, its just not been done that often in the CH. There were other options than Gowran egg and spoon races. Apparently Ruby told Mullins he didn’t need another run because he considers him experienced enough.
I’ll be having some 6/4 if it goes there, but lack of a run after xmas – 1/15 winners (ROR) and a general inexperience (only 7 hurdle races) are my worries.
