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Gents
If Ornais and Surface to Air had not been off course for so long and retained the form of 2008 both would be much higher in the weights and much shorter in the market.
I have had a small EW punt on both at silly odds in the hope that one will reproduce something like old form and run into a place. First five.
Ginger Tipster
‘It is the weight in relation to other horses that matters, not the actual weight carried.’
You make some good observations about weight carried and the stats you quote support you. However I firmly believe that there is a point in the weights scale that pretty much puts the horse out of contention. An extra pound in weight would have minimal effect on my time for running 100 meters, but then keep adding another pound and at some stage I wouldn’t even be able to walk 100 meters. Regarding the National an extra burden in weight is carried over 36 furlongs and this magnifies that extra burden. I always went along with the popular theory that the cut off point was 11 stone, I am not so sure after recent results but I still wouldn’t dream of backing a nag carrying in excess of 11-6 over the 36 furlongs of Aintree.
Having said the above I do agree that finding an horse well in at the weights is essential. Mistakes of the Handicapper are what we are looking for.
AKA Bobbyjo: that had to be the biggest handicapping cock up in the history of horse racing and I remember quite clearly my reactions at the time to see an horse which had won the Irish National carrying 11-4 (I think) being allocated less than 10 stone for Aintree. FILL YOUR BOOTS.
Dont forget the importance of the going, which makes ante post betting a nightmare.
If some miracle, which I don’t think will happen, the ground comes up Heavy (Oh, how I dream) then Bluesea Cracker, I feel would be worth a massive punt.
Since horses are animals they will obviously have some days better than others.
I know that there are many mornings when I wake up in a shitty mood, mostly after one of my certainties has fell at the first.
Anyway horses must be affected by mood the same as any other animal. So your theory about being in season and that affecting form seems more than plausible to me.
peter.h
I appreciate your input. In the race you mention Bluesea Cracker finished a country mile in front of Character Building when giving a pound in weight. Therefore if Character Building is in the equation then with favourable soft ground so must be Bluesea Cracker. Indeed with the ground any worse than gd-sft I wouldn’t touch Character Building with stolen money.
You mention in your post not to forget the Topham?
Does anyone out there have a good angle on what the performances of horses withdrawn from the National have been like in the Topham?
Whilst it would be nice to have the winner of the big race itself, I am more than happy to take my winners anywhere that I can find them.
‘Education is the school of mankind and they will learn at no other’
Hi folks
Rather than invite comments to frank my selections I would like to invite someone to give me justification for not backing the following:
With decent going:
Character Building
One Cool CookieIf the ground cuts up
Silver by Nature
Bluesea CrackerIf you can’t put me off then I must have the right nags.
Well Folks
Since my Grand National Banker (If there could be such a thing) Chief Dan George is not competing I have searched the field and reckon the winner will come from one of:
Niche Market –
Irish National Winner and 3rd in Hennessey. Not a very brave selection.Dream Alliance –
Welsh National Winner and 2nd in 2007 Hennessey. Very moody horse but if he performs can very easily land this.My Will –
Third last year when strongly fancied and 2 pounds better off. Once rated as high as 161 so if reproducing close to that form will definitely be in the shake up.Hello Bud –
Scottish National Winner last year when beating my original selection Chief Dan George. Carrying 3 pounds less than when winning the Scots.All of these selections have shown some racecourse form this season having at least ran into a place, which is more than can be said of:
Comply or Die
Character Building
State of Play
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Mr Pointment
FlintoffWhich all made my not very short list.
Although Palypsl De Creek does appear to have most of the credentials I look for, I think he’s a bit young at 7.
My alternatives to CDG are:
Niche Market and Dream Alliance.
May the best man win.
It doesn’t matter if Madison and Notre Pere run or not. The top forty in the weights will get in and since Chief Dan George is currently 57th there needs to be 17 withdrawals. I am crossing my fingers,but since 10-2 has only got into the race once in the last 5 years I am not hopeful. Prior to 2005 10-0 and even horses out of the handicap were regular runners. It just shows how much the quality of this race has improved.
Anyway the bets I already have on CDG are relatively small nibbles at big prices, so I thought them worth the risk. The bigger wager I have had is NRNB. But if and its a big IF he runs, I believe he will take some beating of 10-2. Also I note that there is some confidence in the market.
I am still trawling the field for an alternative.
7 pounds is a lot of extra weight to carry around the 4m 4f or Aintree over those fences and I think if Treadwell thought he had a serious chance of repeating last years win he would still be on Mon Mome. Who imo was an outrageous price last year and I still kick myself that he was in my shortlist and I stupidly allowed the price to put me off.
LO Folks
Been following this thread with interest. Having been brought up with tales of how the Grand National is a lottery, I am amazed at how easy I have found it over the last half dozen years to narrow the race down to a short list of about six and although not always backed (Mon Mome)have always had the winner in the shortlist. Anyway I have already taken a nibble at 66’s and 40’s EW on Chief Dan George. An horse that has not only just won at the Festival but also carried 11-1 into 5th place in last years Scottish National. Its got to be a serious contender off 10-2. Would appreciate some feedback and some arguments against this being a winner. I am thinking of putting some serious money on him.