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Chepstow 4.50 KNIGHT IN PURPLE each-way @ 9 (Hills/Coral)
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A fairly tight Class 4 handicap hurdle seems a strange place to go on a day like today for a Value Bet but I do think joint top-rated runner
KNIGHT IN PURPLE
is overpriced at 8/1 with Hills and Coral. He beat Overturn last season and is a spring horse, the tongue-tie and visor appeared to assist him last time and he looks on a fair mark with the jock taking off a further 3lb. I would have him priced at around the 6/1 mark so it’s not ‘tremendous’ value as I usually insist on at least a 50% V% but he ranks 1st on the MSR (Master Speed Rating) and that was actually a CB (Career Best) speed figure he clocked last time which is not obvious on the bare form of that run, this is a slight drop in grade and I think he can reward an each-way interest.
There was no qualifying Class4 contender yesterday or today but there is a corker in a Class3 handicap in the 3.10 at Beverley so I will put that one up. BREATHLESS KISS is the only one of the Top6 with a recent run under her belt so could hold a fitness advantage over a lot of these. She won a couple of sprints on the all-weather this winter and drops in class after being out of her depth in a listed contest last time. She also ranks 1st on my MSR (Master Speed Rating), we are getting decent value on her and Kevin Ryan has started the season well so she goes in today as a Value Bet with 4 places up for grabs for those who prefer to play each way.Confessional is another who looks massively overpriced and worth including in Tricast combinations with the others on the Top6 for small stakes.
BEVERLEY 3.10 BREATHLESS KISS @ 17 (Bet365)
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Thanks for the feedback…it’s certainly an interesting angle…I would have to look into it although just because a horse may represent poor value on the odds-line doesn’t mean it is a lay or has less chance of winning than others rated highly in the race and the type of races I am playing in the average odds to lay would be higher than ideal and outside my own comfort zone but I can see where you are coming from.
I prefer to concentrate on the back side of things and a more selective approach myself and would have to look into it in detail to check the historical data but for now I am just trying to keep it simple. I know people may prefer to go each-way on a lot of these and some may even prefer to dutch or win/cover bet with a couple but for me I can handle losing runs and I do know the better long-term ROI comes from win only.
The only problem I have at the moment is all my stats are based on races from Class4 and higher from ALL races so by being more selective with just one Class4 race like this then losing runs could be magnified but as I’ve said it’s more about the patient, disciplined and selective approach for this exercise but I am recording all the qualifying Top6 and will crunch their data at the end of the month.
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Trappy today. I am trying to pick races where there is the best value and a decent sized field for those wishing to play each-way. The 4.40 has CAPE ROYAL top-rated, the CD winner is relatively fit and has some fairly strong stats but mainly because he is overpriced in relation to his chances of winning by quite some way. The Top3 combined should produce the winner 35% of the time and Efistorm looks the main danger with some value tricast options in there as well utilising perhaps Cape Royal with Efistorm, Even Bolder and Equuleus Pictor.
Windsor 4.40 CAPE ROYAL
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Yes although technically I’m just providing the horse and as I said it’s up to the individual how they play them. I know long term that win only will provide the highest ROI but not everyone has the stomach for the losing runs.
I will record results for both WIN BOG (best odds guaranteed), EW BOG and WIN BSP (less 5% comm) so we can compare the various returns.
Today’s bet is CARA’S REQUEST in the 3.20 at Doncaster. The big problem here is his record first time out but I think to a large extent that is why we are getting 12/1. It is a concern but overall his record is fairly consistent and he is strong on my overall Master Speed Rating also so I’ll take a chance that he can blaze out and hold on as he looked progressive in the 2nd-half of last year and could hold a class advantage. There are potential forecast and tricast opps in the race and again I would expect the winner or placed runners to come from the top6 and hopefully top3 of the main FBR rating.
Doncaster 3.20 CARA’S REQUEST @ 12/1 (Bet365/Hills)
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Snow Dancer a fair 2nd rewarding those who went each-way and hope some of you did. SD didn’t get a clear passage at key stage and winner got first run but ratings pretty on the mark. Nailed the combo forecast for £50 but narrowly missed out on a potentially very decent tricast combo
For the sake of this exercise though…
Wins 0
Runs 1
S/R 0%
ROI -100%Trends Analysis is an extremely useful and invaluable tool if done properly and used as a guide in conjunction with other forms of analysis. BOSTONS ANGEL in the RSA was a perfect trends fit for the race and was prominent on ratings so was a clear value bet at 16/1 for the RSA…HURRICANE FLY as well was also a trends topper in the Champion Hurdle and I had him top-rated but such trend-topping winners were few and far between at the festival this year if followed blindly.
Other notable trends toppers in the last year off the top of my head were MAKFI at 40/1 in the 2000 Guineas and BLUESEAS CRACKER in the Irish National at 33/1 as well as numerous trends contenders at Royal Ascot last year that came good.
On their own trends are not usually enough but they can be if done properly and if used on a selective race basis by focusing on Group 1’s and Class1/2 handicaps….to dismiss them out of hand is to miss an important part of the big-race puzzle. Trends and history does tend to repeat but not every year but I guarantee if you follow the top trends qualifier based on 10-15 year trends every year for 10-15 years you would more than likely get the winner most years using that approach and come out ahead.
A mistake a lot of trends followers make is to not place more relevancy and emphasis on stronger trends than the weaker ones and to look for alternative trends that the masses may miss.
For example if you have 2 horses and they both meet 9 of the 10 trends in question for a race but one missed out on a trend that had produced 10/10 previous winners of the race compared to the other which missed out on a trend that only produced 6/10 previous winners of the race then your decision is a lot easier.
Not much going on trends-wise today although NIDEEB is a fairly obvious choice for the Winter Derby meeting all the key criteria but not what I would classify as a ‘value trends’ contender.
