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Punchestown
4.15 Slippers Percy & Ten Fires, 4.55 Bob Lingo, 5.30 Thousand Stars, 6.05 Prima Vista, 6.40 Inspector Clouseau
Am remembering now why I avoid this meeting but will stick at it…
4.15 UNHINGED, 4.50 ANOTHER JEWEL, 5.30 VOLER LA VEDETTE
Cheer MR F…was gutted about the Cross-X runner touched 2.32 in running also before forced wide off the course but have to expect such things in those races. Hopefully better today.
Today’s Value @ Punchestown –
3.40 DAY OF DESTINY,4.20 KALANN,4.55 LAMBRO, 6.40 ASK THE MASTER
Quite busy at the moment and although these don’t really qualify for the system I am using I thought it might be interesting to put up a few on some of the Punchestown races over the next few days that may reward a value-based approach for small stakes through the week.
Punchestown 340 NOT TO PUSHED & 455 TOTAL EXCITEMENT/THE JIGSAW MAN
I am not going to stop posting just waiting for the flat season form to settle down a bit more. I was tempted by a couple at Thirsk today Who’s Shirl (4.45) or Secret Venue (5.45) but they lack a key positive that I look for and there is a slight question mark over their fitness after an absence but they may still warrant a small bet.
Well best case scenario it’s actually +19.38pts profit and 215% ROI at BSP less 5% comm
I do realise you can’t please everyone but I’m not posting to please anyone to be honest, the concept of ‘value’ is often misunderstood and I thought the best way to highlight it was the above approach and perhaps generate either some discussion on the races themselves, the approach or at least receive some constructive feedback. I still hope that may be the case.
It’s my opinion that if you don’t consider value when you are betting then you will also struggle to show long-term profits no matter what method or approach you are using or rather you will not be maximising your returns. Betting as a hobby doesn’t really interest me anymore to be honest. I did that when I was in my 20’s and there are less expensive and more fun hobbies to have
For me it’s about earning a substantial living from betting, enough to not have to work for someone else again and be totally self-sufficient, something that I have only achieved in the last 3 years or so. For me that should be the goal if you are taking it up professionally, but it doesn’t come easily. It takes a hell of a lot of work, study, analysis, research, self-control, discipline and many other attributes some of which come with time and experience that you can pick up along the way. You also have to keep yourself open to new ideas and methods which the crowd largely ignores or has not cottoned onto.I’ll have a think about it the next few days and will continue to post up races and opportunities when I spot them. Yeah, that is an excellent book…totally changed my betting when I first got it around 5+ years ago and helped me to give up a well paid job to do what I love full-time, watching racing and being a slave to nobody…apart from the missus of course
Thanks for the post MrE…but I haven’t actually been advertising anything…I deliberately didn’t mention what I do as it’s not the place to do so and I only mentioned it in defence to ‘Hatters’ accusation that it was my primary reason for posting which it wasn’t. I agree there is plenty of free stuff on the net although how good or original most of it is is open to debate. I also am dead against paying for ‘tipsters’ or ‘inside info’ – much better to show people alternative angles and provide them with all the relevant information to make an informed decision on a horse/race themselves but also offer up a few suggestions which I think is of better long-term benefit to help people improve themselves as punters rather than being spoon-fed ‘stuff’.
I must admit though I did expect more in the way of discussion regarding the initial post about forming an odds-line whether it is based on ratings or any other form of analysis and how to highlight value from that odds-line…I feel most ‘gamblers’ would improve their betting immeasurably by doing this but only a very small minority do so.
Part of the problem also with value betting is it requires a different mindset than looking for the winner in the race, similarly looking purely for value will not be an optimum approach but something in between I think works very well.
I’ll think on it but I’ll probably stop posting now to be honest as I don’t want to get drawn into debates about my intentions for posting as once they start down that path they often snowball.
For those wishing to learn more about this kind of approach though The book ‘Money secrets at the racetrack’ by Barry Meadow is a recommended read for anyone wishing to totally change the way they bet like this.
Good Luck folks
Hi FB
Sorry if my comments offended you
As you have quoted "the tagline for this forum is "Discuss systems and methods and put up your system’s selections".
What i was trying to say is that your system is of no use to me or anyone else if you no longer post.
You haven’t explained how you come to your ratings & obviously the cream is only available on a subscription basis – thereby you will still not reveal how you came to your conclusions.Unlucky today – poss summat wrong with nag
Cheerz
HatterDidn’t offend me Hatter just inaccurate as to why I was posting and I am sure the selections/system and discussion on value and the races has been useful to some people. If you don’t find it useful, just ignore the thread…simples. As for not posting, I said it was selective and I am waiting largely for the flat season form to settle down for the first month…as to how I arrive at my ratings…your kidding right
This isn’t about how the ratings are formed, that is a unique rating based on 25+ criteria all weighted according to the relevancy of the race type and are a result of 5 years work in total based on around 15 years worth of race and form analysis…some criteria are obvious but many are totally unique and so to reveal them to the ‘world’ would lose any edge they have…the criteria are never revealed to anyone member or not…the post was more about forming an odds-line, value-betting etc and I do reveal how I come to my conclusions in the posts so really don’t understand your issue with it.Yes, it was sweating up like a pig before the race and ran like one, something amiss there but a number of Johnston’s have been like that…serves me right for not looking for those that have at least had a recent run ! Hopefully better on Saturday.
Cheers Mr F – to be honest I don’t need to advertise anything, just trying to promote some discussion on value/ratings and put up some bets for people
There has been a seriously lack of value opportunities at the Class4 level for me over the last week so I’ll step up a grade to Class3 level and head to Epsom today.
The selection is a close 2nd on my ratings and where there is little to separate the runners in a trappy looking handicap the MSR1 and the price makes the choice fairly straightforward. Epsom is a tricky track, some handle it and some don’t but I’ll take my chances.
Fitness cannot be assured but Johnston and Dettori make a formidable combo so it’s worth a go at 20/1 with Stan James as it should be less than half those odds I feel.
Epsom 2.35 MISTER ANGRY @ 21
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Hi Formbet
Nice to see the tips especially if winners
What i was expecting to see though was a ‘system’ on a System forum.
Am guessing it won’t be explained to the forum as i guess you are hoping to use it as an advertisement to your website.
Maybe that is why the feedback is so lowRegards
HatterWhat is it you want explained exactly ? I haven’t mentioned my site and am not at all interested in advertising anything, the tagline for this forum is "Discuss systems and methods and put up your system’s selections" which is exactly what I have been doing. If I don’t find anything strong enough each day or am short of time then I am not able to do that but that is not such a bad thing with a selective strategy. I just thought more people might be willing to discuss a value approach or ratings/odds-lines in general rather than question my motives for doing this.
I put up a detailed explanation of what I am doing and how I am arriving at shortlisting the selections for each race I put up. I have also tried to put up the reasoning for the selections and the ratings/odds-estimate etc and I hope a few people have made some cash off the back of them…thanks anyway for your feedback, even if it wasn’t the type of constructive type I was hoping for
Waiting until the very last race of the day for the VALUE bet COUNTESS COMET at around 9/1 could be an improver this season and the Beckett stable is in good form and looks overpriced with a fair MSR3 and a few % in hand of her rivals in a tight contest.
Doncaster 19:55 COUNTESS COMET @ 9/1
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Quite a few in the Class races today but can’t post them so have picked one out from a Class4 later.
Tonight at Kempton sees a value priced contender who has finished 1-1-2 on his last 3 runs, is a CD winner, ranks 1st on the main FBR rating, 2nd on the MSR (Master Speed Rating) and holds a fitness advantage over the majority of his rivals. Kempton all-weather is not my favourite track in the world in terms of consistency and he has to concede weight to some unexposed rivals who may have his measure but at 16/1 I think MAYS BOY is overpriced in the 8:45 at Kempton.
Kempton 8:45 MAYS BOY @ 16/1 (Bet365/Hills/Coral)
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Hi Mr Forecast and thanks for the comments
My database team consists of one person…me
I’m trying to be selective with these bets and am struggling to find too many opportunities at the moment, am largely waiting for the flat season to settle in, it’s always dicey the first month or so with question marks over horses fitness, speed figures from the tail-end of last season are fairly useless in determining how a horse will run first time out but I hope to have something soon. Ideally I am looking for a strong stats/value-priced runners for these bets that offer at least a 50% edge…I have a few in the Class1/2/3 contests but those are subscriber-only but I do hope there will be a few more qualifiers through the flat season at Class4 level that I will continue to post up.
Cheers for watching and for the complimentary comments…it’s hard work but it’s rewarding to get feedback like that.
Sunday’s value bet..
Wincanton 5.05 AINES DELIGHT @ 26
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Am waiting until the very last race of the day for the FREE Value bet today. It’s a Class4 conditionals’ handicap hurdle which and although Mayberry is the likelier winner her price is pretty skinny in relation to her chances. Not so AINES DELIGHT who is also ranked MSR1 and rated just 2% behind Mayberry so the best odds of 25/1 look standout. Her chances on form don’t look obvious but a couple of key things. First of all in her 3 novice hurdles she has taken a keen hold and not lasted how but Wincanton is a speed track generally speaking, the ground is decent and this fair flat performer has a better chance of lasting out the trip. It’s a bit of a chancy bet but we are rewarded with very decent odds and it’s a poor looking race overall.
Hope some of you were on today
Weekly Results Summary
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A good start..it’s very selective – I try to get one bet a day but sometimes I just can’t find anything tempting enough. Snow Dancer ran a good 2nd at 16/1, Breathless Kiss was a last-gasp winner at 16/1 and Knight In Purple a very easy winner at 8/1 today.
A lot of people will want to play e/w given the price but you can see the difference in ROI going win only and at BSP.
May have one for Sunday but more than likely next bet will be next week. Hope some of you are following..would be nice to get more feedback
