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I should say, I’m up 5.1pts in total at the start of the day, and I’ve wagered 14pts today.
Cheers greenasgrass and Venture to Cognac, it feels good to have my days in order again and being able to waste them on something so indulgently beautiful as horses going over obstacles. And really, it’s not about the winning or losing, more about the wasting a morning looking at the Racing Post than getting far too excited over a 50p horse race on my screen.
Today, at Warwick, I feel like the weather is going to mess me around. It’s a big dice roll with the change from yesterday and the rain I’m seeing on the forecast sites, I’ve already seen a horse I had picked withdrawn. But hey-ho, another day of fun begins.
Warwick – 14:10 – Armandihan – 5/2 – 2pts
One very good win over hurdles on roughly the same distance. No obvious flaws in evidence from that based on others in race who may or may not run well and a favourite who might find the bigger field a challenge to their even-ness.Warwick – 14:45 – Twasn’t The Plan – 9/1 – 2pts
Outside bet, had another that was withdrawn as my pick. I feel this change to a chase might suit a horse that hasn’t been able to finish over hurdles, putting it above others that have been proven changeable over fences. More a gut pick than anything as I feel Isaac Wonder has the history to do well, but if the bad-days come together for the others, this plodder may do well.Warwick – 15:15 – Kilkeaskin Molly – 14/1 EW – 2pts
Raced in higher prizes, didn’t always finish. Hoping for a change in the going to bring it closer to a steady pace and the horse to finish out.Warwick – 15:50 – Dr Robin – 6/1 – 2pts
Solid winner at similar stake races, question is whether others perform. Concerned about Treackle Tart at long odds but they have significant weight, Between the top five it’s anyone’s race and the changeable ground going from firm with rain and the weights on the more favoured horses make this a contemplative bet.Warwick – 16:20 – Camaplu – 11/1 EW – 2pts
If the ground gets heavier it might suit. There’s a risk with it carrying the heaviest weight, but it always seems to put in a solid effort. With the field being so dodgy in general EW might cover it and there’s a chance at a win.I should correct the 15:50 with Royal Ruby, it’s only 3pts I have on it, which means no matter what, today I’m up 1.5pts in total (presuming I don’t go as crazy as my posting.)
Manofthemountain was withdrawn from the 14:45 so wanting to watch the race I feel like it’s between Templepark, who doesn’t seem to finish races and Anteros who I think will do ok with better ground, but the odds just seem too short. But I’m a big fish, and I wanna watch.
Warwick – 14:45 – Anteros – 9/2 – 3pts
After a wildly incorrect read I’ve decided to go with something to fill the time at the 3:15.
Warwick – 3:15 – Lovato – 4/1 – 3pts
Decent win in september, age may be a benefit, feel the changeable ground may upset the favourite and others.I’m back and getting warmed up for the jumps season, and feeling encouraged by the Welsh rugby team have put a few bets on horses (albeit with no insider knowledge.)
Warwick – 14:10 – Cronins Hill – 25/1 EW – 3pts
Good PtP performance, each way shout in a strange field where ground can upset others than the favourite, shorter race might allow it to progressWarwick – 14:45 – Manofthemountain – 3/1 – 4pts
Think it just has that final kick to finish on the ground.Warwick – 15:50 – Royal Ruby – 13/2 – 4pts
I get the feeling the trainer has been working them for a return. Slightly off kilter results in the years previous and this may be a make or break.And I’m debating and watching the odds on the 3:15 with Lovato. It’ll depend on how I’m feeling after the first two races, chasing my losses or feeling good about a win and wanting to watch more racing.
Wetherby – 14:20 – Wapping – 12/1 EW – 2pts
Bit of a gamble at longer odds. Seems to be close on flat ground, question of whether extra half a mile and hurdles can pay off in their first nh race. At 12/1 worth a shout ew/Wetherby – 14:50 – Las Tunas – 13/2 – 2pts
Only one race won, the rest didn’t look at all like winning. However the drier ground could suit, and is an equal chance with the favourites priced lower.Wetherby – 15:25 – Fisher Green – 12/1 EW – 2pts
Good ground seems to suit. A little funky with odds, with no real clear favourite (although early favourite was one of my fancies, but not felt value) Seems a long way out, with others being backed. Wonder if not accounting for recent form and ground, along with lowish (although equivalent to this) prizes in races..Wetherby – 15:55 – Henry’s Joy – 8/1 – 2pts
Miles outside on odds. Run ok over better ground, can see it potentially running better today. Trainer in poor form, jockey in good form. A race I want to see as it looks really competitive and this is a long odds yelling factor.Wetherby – 16:30 – Simply A Legend – 5/1 – 2pts
Solid performance on same ground and distance in Jan. Could do better. Cocked up in not seeing it was the horse’s first race in three years.Wetherby – 16:30 – Golden Jeffrey – 12/1 EW – 2pts
There or thereabouts on good ground, over similar distance, in lower prizes. Not raced since December so another cock up on my part in not seeing it. Could be a training run to get them back out, could be a long shot chance at 12/1. Now I’ve two unknowns in this race from not paying attention.Not a bad day today. It started off well with Diomede des Mottes winning in my first race. Straight away I was breaking even, with any other win putting me up. In the second race Arthur’s Reuben fell fairly early on, which I didn’t manage to see. It must have come out of nowhere as they jumped the first couple fairly well, and were keeping back a little from the pack to have some clearance. I’m disappointed I didn’t get to see how the horse would fare. A Little Magic showed their time off was a decider. They were probably only in the race to gauge how the horse would run. I didn’t see much in it, but the notes from RP say it found a little speed after the race was already lost. Finally, Risk A Fine confirmed its favourite position, with some slight movement on the odds as it was getting close, but it started at the same price I backed it. ’twas my second win of the day to put me up just a little.
Today – 2 Wins – Profit of 5pts
Overall up 11.6pts – still fair down on my big high from the first day of betting.
An absolute disaster yesterday, best summed up by the last horse I had picked living up to the general insanity associated with greys (at least within my immediate family.) It looked like a maniac on the course, going in and out, wide and tight, and generally being a hazard, much like my betting.
But oh well, back on the horse today.
Warwick – 14:10 – Diomede des Mottes – 4/1 – 2pts
Seems competent over the distance, faster ground might suit. One poor recent showing demands better in this race.Warwick – 14:40 – Arthur’s Reuben – 10/1 EW (enhanced places) – 2pts
Always there or thereabouts on distance, mix of distances from winner from close-ish to a little further. Might be able to hold on in a close battle. One win came on good ground.Warwick – 15:15 – A Little Magic – 10/1 – 2pts
Good performances before a long layoff. Entirely dependent on whether horse gets right back into it.Warwick – 16:20 – Risk A Fine – 6/4 – 2pts
Success in PTPs, second in 2k Chase. Rightful favourite or jf. Depends on the luck of a chase but no falls or reports on jumping. Changing of trainers might be an issue.Overall I’m up 6.6pts before today’s races
I need some success today or I’ve blown away my lead. But, sure, I’m having fun.Only one place yesterday, but it was the longshot I had big eyes for. The early races were an absolute disaster. My runners were nowhere near, and you could tell that from the off. It made for an anticlimactic first few races. Crimson Chief did well for me, pulling back some of my losses. And the final race with Kilbarry Calling was a good run, so you can’t say anything despite it not winning.
I was down 6pts overall with BOG getting me 25/1 on Crimson Chief.
Overall P/L – 20.6pts
Another few bets for me today, as my beginner’s luck fades away and the bookies begin to thank me.
Market Rasen – 15:15 – Quantum of Solace – 4/1 – 2pts
Softer ground seems to suit better, but can achieve over drier. In a race where nothing else has proven anything it’s theirs to lose.Market Rasen – 15:45 – Second Time Around – 4/1 – 2pts
Always there or thereabouts, ground should suit, trainer and jockey in good form.Market Rasen – 15:45 – Follow the Swallow – 10/1 EW – 2pts
Had one good race where fell in lead, ground should suit, carrying less weight, potential ew depending on odds. Needs one decent performance for the age.Market Rasen – 16:20 – Silva Eclipse – 13/2 – 2pts
Has a series of places over varying ground, although less weight the good ground could potentially suit. Distance seems right in the middle of its performance curve. Being backed as the morning goes on.Market Rasen – 16:50 – Moorlands Mist – 14/1 EW – 2pts
Two end of previous year performances over good ground that shows well. Pulled up on heavy ground. Potentially saving horse for this type of race. Age, again, could be a factor for staying.Clonmel – 14:20 – Take A Punt – 14/1 E/W – 2pts
A race with one or two favourites and a lot of cruft, as well as horses with no history. This might live up to it’s 2018 summer’s one result of a third, potentially do better, or fall way back. It’s performance on soft ground over a longer distance shows some potential in December and trainers decision to race back at 2m might be indicative. EW with the right odds.Clonmel – 14:50 – Gracious Gamble – 11/1 E/W – 2pts
UR and BD in previous two races, maybe unlucky, maybe the horse. Shows it has some ability in how it finishes out races from few previous performances – ew shout.Clonmel – 15:20 – Braize – 11/2 – 2pts
Undulating performance, seems to be ok over good ground, can show a quickening in pace amongst others who can’t. Really seems to be searching for the right distance.Clonmel – 15:50 – Crimson Chief – 20/1 E/W – 2pts
Mostly run over poorer ground, fell in only chase on softer ground, good ground could potentially suit.Clonmel – 15:50 – Bothar Dubh – 7/1 – 2pts
Good point to point performance and improving this year in hurdles. Might get good odds on an ew place in first outing in a chase with other better favoured chasers. Outside chance that could beat value with odds.
(Was looking for e/w here but took it to win after seeing the odds)Clonmel – 16:50 – Kilbarry Calling – 9/2 – 2pts
Would be a selection for favourite if other horses keep their varying results. Finishes well, doesn’t seem affected by ground and is improving along with weight. How often it’s been raced might be an issue.I have to say tomorrow in Clonmel looks like it’ll have some mighty races. There’s a gorgeous roll of favourites, potential places, and outside chances in pretty much every race. On top of that, the card for each race has enough horses to make everything interesting. I’d be guessing tomorrow ends up being topsy turvy in how it turns out, but from a hobbyist perspective rather than someone looking to make a living off their bets it should be an exciting afternoon. Whoever’s job it was to pitch the day to the trainers did a superb job.
No luck today, with Findusatgorcombe in second after what looked like a tough race. However, I’m annoyed as muck by Nightfly. The horse seemed to be struggling from a quarter of the way into the race, and never looked anywhere near fluent. It didn’t help that there was a fence another horse more or less jumped into him, and almost happening again at the next. I’ll never know what the horse was thinking but I haven’t a clue what either the trainer or jockey were thinking.
Today – Down 4pts
Overall – Up 26.6ptsMy afternoon was looking a little empty, so I caved to the odds that were up. The market can’t always be wrong, can it?
Wincanton – 15:45 – Findusatgorcombe – 5/2 – 2pts
Always in mix in chases, drier ground might suit despite step in weight. Another horse is tipped so potentially good odds, though doubtful.Wincanton – 15:15 – Nightfly – 5/1 – 2pts
One poor, one good showing in bigger prize race. Hasn’t proven itself over 2m4f but on similar ground over 2m3f has done well. Depends on whether it gets to race its own race and the effect of the weight.My other bet for today, Midnight Midge, is a Non Runner. That’s a real pity as it was the horse I was most looking forward to seeing today. The Nightfly race I have as quite open among the top three or four, so it’s a real gamble. In the 14:45 I was thinking of Jenkins and in the 15:45 Findusatgorcombe but I’m not happy with the odds. Findusatgorcombe looks to be drifting a little from last night, but not near to where I wanted it.
A low key day for me, which I should probably expect more of coming into the summer.
With an enjoyable day yesterday, including three or four afternoon beers and a celebratory Old Fashioned before dinner, it meant I was half asleep by 7pm. That then meant I didn’t have the energy to look at today’s cards, so there’s no Sunday racing for me. I’m not sure if there’s a point in having a flutter after the bookies have 12+ hours of action to sort out their prices.
I have been looking through upcoming meets, and, of course, I decided to get into this betting business at absolutely the wrong time. From my limited time with ponies as a child all my attention was on jumps. I have absolutely no clue about flat racing. The summer means NH racing will be tailing off, and I’m not at all sure how to evaluate anything other than a hurdle or a chase.
In other activities, I’ve been looking at the upcoming meets in Ireland. Particularly what I can get to from my base in the south, via public transport. To say racecourses don’t really cater for those who don’t drive might be an understatement. Irish bus and rail systems are partially to blame, when it takes three hours to go sixty or seventy miles in a direction that’s not straight towards Dublin, but even then there’s very few races putting on shuttle buses between their town’s main train or bus station. Limerick, which is one of the bigger cities, suggests a taxi between the town and the course, which would end up costing you €30 for the day, on top of entry and everything else. Thankfully, my local track, Mallow (Cork,) has some sense and puts on a shuttle bus between the train station and the course. Another problem is the evening meets, so you’re risking, if it even exists, missing the last bus or train. All this, combined with the mostly evening and family days for the summer along with my lack of knowledge of flat racing, means I doubt I’ll be getting to a racecourse any time soon. Which is a shame. I guess I’ll just have to learn about flat racing and keep betting enough to see the races via the bookies’ streams.
My thread title seemed to play out very well, “Beginner’s Luck.” I had some very fortuitous turns today that meant I went from a little down, to a fair bit up.
Kelso – 15:00 – Some Chaos – 9/2 – 2pts – Returned 11pts
This was one I was hesitant on at the odds being offered. It’s something I’ve done before, where I’m apprehensive about a horse I have a strong feeling on because I want longer odds, where my own uncertainty is stopping me putting money on something short as I can’t be “that correct” especially when I take into account other horses’ potential. This could be just as much me looking for long odds for a big win. This one shows I’ll have to build the knowledge to get over it. It was a crazy race to watch, Some Chaos really was some chaos: hurtling through fences more than jumping them, nearly unseating the rider, and generally looking manic from the start. He really finished out though, real quality.Thurles – 16:40 – Sizing Rome – 3/1 – 2pts – Returned 18pts at BOG 8/1
My Best Odds Guarantee helped me with this one. I had it priced as the favourite before the bookies put their prices up. When I saw it go up as second to the favourite I took it. Right before the off it drifted out to 8/1. I don’t know what was seen in the paddock, but thank you whoever started that. Before the last race I felt this was the one that would pull me back to only a minor loss, and was probably my most uplifting feeling after it won. It looked a controlled race the whole way through from him, and if it wasn’t for the bookies just slightly getting the odds wrong I might have gone for what was the favourite if it was shown as second favourite.Thurles – 17:15 – You Can’t Catch Me – 20/1 E/W – 2pts – Returned 37.6pts
More luck with the favourite, who I would have backed had I got the right odds, being withdrawn. Another horse was also withdrawn and Rule 4 was in play with the size of the field (not that I could work out what the meant for the return in the moment of it happening.) With that my horse went from a potential of placing, for me, to me looking at who else I thought had it in them, to me really wanting the place (despite the reduced payout tempering my prospects of a profitable day.) Watching the horse on the way around it built in esteem for me. It shot out of every fence, really picking it up. The jockey, JJ Slevin, kept the horse level throughout and then it had just enough by the end. A big win I would have longed for, but never really expected, not until it was half way around the course.Overall – Up 30.6pts
A delightful day, even if it seemed disappointing until the very last. My result is probably masking where I need to have a think on things, especially having the confidence to back horses at lower odds.
