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Bulwark,
Israel has carried out plenty of military operations – take your pick from the invasions of Lebanon (1982 and 2006), to the aquisition of the occupied territories during the 6 Day War, to the recent invasion of Gaza. All they seem to have done is alienate their neighbours yet further, drive more and more Palestinians into the arms of extremist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and above all else, do anything but defeat terrorism. It could be easily argued the level of terror groups in the middle east has a direct correlation with the extent of the Israeli military actions.
I hate terrorism, and I am sure any sane person would. However I also hate the spectacle of modern armies invading countries with a heavy handed state of the art mechanism which results in 1500 dead people. The rocket attacks are random, and appalling for the relatives of the dead. However shouldn’t Israel ask themselves why is this happeneing to us all the time, and all our military might and hardware has not made the lives of our citizens any safer. Unless you build walls around the entire Israeli border, and have a multi billion $ anti missile system in place across all of Israel, then you cannot protect your citizens from these random terrorist attacks. So how do you effectively stop them? Clearly not by the invasions as they failed in 82, 06 and it would seem 09 as the ceasefire was breached a couple of times by Hamas.
To me the only way to end it is by diplomacy. Israel has nuclear weapons but Hamas still fires rockets. Will Israel use them? Of course not. Is Hamas scared of Israel no. Terrorists usually don’t scare easily which is why they do what they do – they are extreme. There has to be some give and take and for me the Obama era could be the chance, at last, for the Middle East to reach a lasting peace. Here’s hoping.
Thanks Ginger,
I have tried for two decades to make racing pay. If I am honest I only really took a more measured and serious approach form about 2002, prior to that I read the RP of a morning and followed my gut, and then went on chases if my initial selections lost.
Since 2002 I tended to restrict bets to novice chases and non-handicap flat races. However the chasing still had a financial draining effect from time to time. Having read Nevisons book (which got really slated in some quarters which probably influenced me to avoid it until now – got it as an Xmas present and so gave it a try) I can see similarities in how he used to bet and and how I still do – namely usually short priced horses in small runner fields over the sticks.
So if the "value" theory works for him it can do no harm for me to try and adapt it to my betting. Don’t get me wrong, I have neither the time nor the wealth do make a real go of it, but if I can turn a constant loss into a small profit over time that would have made it all worthwhile.
Are there any books out there on the subject btw?
Superb stuff from the Champ.
The gap between him and the nearest pursuer in the all time lists is truly frightening, and it is hard to envisage it ever being surpassed, certainly not in my lifetime.
He is a one off, and I think it is unfair to imply Timmy Murphy didn’t try on The Package – I am sure the conspiracy theorists will point to that horse being a Pipe/Johnson animal too. We shoudl just rejoice in the achievement. The Package doesn’t finish his races, that was obvious at Ludlow (when I backed him) and if he couldn’t win then he was hardly going to finish today in desperate ground – imo Timmy Murphy was looking after the horse but even if he beat him up I don’t think he would have won, as AP was hardly throwing the kitchen sink at the Henderson horse and no doubt had plenty left in the far scopier Restless D’Artaix who was a proven heavy ground performer whereas The Package seems more of a better ground horse in any case.
AP is not a "purists" jockey, but he has got the job done for years, and for a golden period at Pond House he was the best friend us punters could have – always there to get us out of trouble!
On ATR they mentioned how bad it is he has never won the Sports Personality of the Year award. I agree, and add Phil "The Power" Taylor to that list – what more do either of these genuine living legends have to do to get the recignition they deserve. We don’t have too many genuine greats in this country and we would do better to laud the ones we have instead of ignoring them. They will be sorely missed when they are gone.
I think the ATR style is more akin to the general Sky Sports coverage – a bit more serious than RUK which can often get a bit "in jokey" espeically at more mundane weekday meetings. Having just read his book I will be paying more attention to Nevison in future, along with his "value mentor" Eddie Freemantle. Steve Mellish talks a good story, and his logic is often spot on. Willoughby is interesting with a lot of leftfield theories, which on rare occasions hit the bullseye – but he is entertaining to listen to all the same.
ATR come across more as the voice of the average punter whereas I can see how some people find RUK slightly condescending. The likes of Tony Ennis, Sean Boyce, Darrell Williams and Gareth O’Brien all, as far as I know, come from Bookmaking/SIS backgrounds, and so have the right tone to speak to the semi-serious punter who has grown up in the betting shop environment. RUK on the other hand seem to have more of a "journalistic"/timeform type of recruit, so you can see how the condescending tone might grate. I guess they do set themselves up for a fall a bit too, as if you are going to get scientific then if you appear to be tipping losers it can attract criticism.
Personally I favour ATR, though I am an RUK subscriber so can’t complain too much otherwise I wouldn;t be forking out £12.99 a month. Mind you, I guess the live coverage on its own is more than worth it because I can remember the pre-SIS days when you had to stand in the bookies listening to audio commentaries – how times have changed!
It will be a bummer if he does make the 3,000 today and it looks as though he has a good chance now.
Just think if he does it this afternoon it will be Tommo’s call that goes down for posterity.
I feel sorry for you mate. Just finished rewatching the ATR coverage. You must be seriously kicking yourself not to mention your editor?
I think the Kempton product is a bit like the BAGS on the Dogs isn’t it? Not about crowds, more about giving the betting industry a product which is more attractive than Portman Park and Steepledowns. I have no idea what the entrance fees are for weekday meetings such as this, but one imagines Kempton get enough levy money for putting these meets on to justify it?
There is one problem with being a slave to the value theory, and that is a "horse on the drift"
You belive a horse is value at say 2/1. It opens at 7/4 and then drifts out to say 11/4. Is there "value" at 11/4, probably yes. It continues to drift to 7/2. Is there "value" at 7/2, probably no.
having said that you do get stand out prices from time to time, that just can’t be ignored.
Yes, I think Nevison mentioned this too, and he has been doen himself on occasions, although I think he cites occasions where the drifter has won and he has bottled it as well as losing on other occasions.
Thanks, I will look at the said thread. Gamble, I can see what you say in terms of value is presumably very subjective, however I would have hoped there are some broad rules I can apply to creating a tissue. I must confess I am a novice in this respect so you will have to bear with me. I am guessing that you have an "odds slide rule" which presumably reverts to given point each time you approach a horses’s form and then you slide out or in according to the positive and negatives gleaned from the form.
You get change from a pound for this one
http://www.highstakes.co.uk/shop/product.php/12055/0/
Nevy Nevy be getting involved in hedging un-named favs in the last leg, unless watching favs flipflop at the last second proceeded by the original fav placing and the new fav bombing is your scene.
Nevison writes about some sorry tales when he was playing the spreads on the total odds of favs at the Cheltenham Festival and a couple of JFs nailing him as he was on the one with the higher racecard number which obviously didn’t count as a winning fav for his spread bet. Personally I prefer to name my selections up front. I haven’t done a PP for years – used to do it all the time with my old man who was a great fan, but in all the time (1986-1998 ish) I only won once (Boxing Day 1987, Kempton, lucky as the fall of Forgive N Forget let Golden Friend into a place – had £1 on to win £100 I think. Nice odds but in hindsight realised how lucky I was when I failed to ever win it again and no doubt gave the £100 and more back.
Nevison does say that if you are getting near enough 5 out of 6 selections up most of the time stick with it, otherwise you should give up. I tend to agree.
Personally Clarkson and his sorry band of midlife crises merchants on Top Gear come across as best as a group of mildly successful sales managers at a team building exercise in a Hertfordshire Hotel holding court at the bar, post dinner, trying to impress a fawning gaggle of sexually frustrated management PA’s. "OOh Jeremy, you’re soooo funny".
Not! I don’t care if anyone is offended by him or not, the real issue is the guy is a hampton of the highest order and should be sacked for being an unfunny moron who seems to think he has a highly developed intellect and sense of humour. Hope that doesn’t offend anyone.
I think the fact that 1500 or so civilians were reported killed during the conflice compared with about 15 Israelis (and around the same number of the latter killed from Hamas rockets in the year preceding the invasion). So quibbling about the facts surrounding one single incident when a couple of children are alleged to have died is rather pointless in my book. War is bad and lets hope Obama starts to put pressure on the Israeli state to use more diplomacy rather than arms to settle problems. Already the Iranian’s are making positive noises about him, and hopefully that in turn will result in a behind the scenes chain reaction where Iranian backed groups in the middle east adopt a more conciliatory stance too. This killing has to stop sometime you would hope.
Wasn’t there a health scare about snuff a while ago?
Dunno, but I am fairly confident those types of movies are illegal.
The govt raise incredible levels of revenue via tobacco levies, therefore they wont ban it. However they have to keep upping the anti in terms of health warnings the more that evidence proves smoking causes various life threatening illnesses. They have to do the latter I reckon because they are scared that if they are not seen to have made it the law to put clear warnings on these products then one day they may be prosecuted for negligence (ie. allowing these products to be legal) and if they lose the flood gates of lawsuits against them would open.
So its quite simple really – as long as they can get away with keeping them legal they will. I would imagine if there is ever a stage reached where the revenues raised from tobacco sales are outwieghed by the cost of treating smoking related illnesses on the NHS then the govt may reconsider. Of course then they run the risk of hoardes of pro-smokers descending on Parliament in a violent revolutionary mob. Which I presume would happen because most pro-smokers I have read and heard seem to be pretty committed.
As for Best Mate, it’s a never-ending debate. Winning three Gold Cups was undoubtedly a great achievement, but the merit of his performances relative to those of Kauto Star and Denman is what is constantly questioned – and with good reason. Do you believe, in this universe or another, that he was good enough to have beaten the last two showpiece winners, or even Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges?
I can’t see it myself.
But what comparisons do you use? The sort of scientific measurements that had Denman odds on to destroy his field on Saturday? Best Mate could only beat what was put in front of him. Ratings and times are all well and good, but I think as time elapses and we end up with another decade or 3 between double or even triple winners of the GC, his achievement will become all the more remarkable. What is more ratings do not take into account the fact a horse like Kauto Star is seriously flawed in the jumping department. I think crabbing his 3 wins by saying he is inferior to the two most recent GC winners and their runner ups is pure conjecture and in my book until any of them can achieve what Best Mate did. I have followed racing closely since the days of Pendil and when L’Escargot won the National I only began to realise the significance of his two GC wins. I never imagined it would take 32 years for a horse to equal that Cheltenham feat. Form experts are great at providing hindisght reasons for why one horse is better than another, but the hard part is predicting the future by way of ratings, and I don’t readily recall too many people predicting Denman’s demise on Saturday, nor Kauto’s in the Betfair Chase.
Just finished reading Dave Nevison’s book, "A Bloody Good Winner". It was a real page turner, and in there it became apparent the "big hitters" take these "fun" bets deadly seriously. He sees an elusive "really big" Scoop6/Jackpot win as his retirement fund. I must say I always saw these best as mug bets but maybe I need to start taking a bit more heed. Though he does say if you do them or the placepot and usually get 3/6 (as opposed to his regular 5/6) then probably not a good idea to do them!
The point I was making, Cruella, is that Nicholls was happy to blame Sam Thomas for Kauto Star’s defeat at Haydock (compounding his view with the declaration that Ruby would have done better), yet despite stating that Denman wasn’t ideally placed throughout this afternoon didn’t have a bad word to say about the jockey.
hear hear! apologies, I more or less copied this opinion in my original post having not read the whole thread
. Now, either he knew that Nicholls was expecting nothing more than a leisurely stroll around Kempton, and that admissions of ‘little improvement to come’ would be false, or has already learned of Denman’s (likely) Gold Cup fate and remained unenthusiastic as a result.
I would be pretty annoyed if the Ditcheat camp already know that Denman is a shadow of his former self but are batting on regardless, and using his obvious public appeal to manipulate all manner of markets prior to it being made clear on the day the horse is finished. If this was true I would be disgusted as surely the horse must be retired if the heart condition has caused him to lose his form.
The point about him running a damn good race if you remove Madison is a good one – we would be all championing him as the second coming if Madison had not run.
A friend pointed out to me that a lot of people have and are losing fortunes in all sorts of investment vehicles and that we need to get ready for more of the same in terms of "strange" results.
Anyway, spare a thought for Best Mate. This true great wasn’t even in his final resting place before people were knocking what he had achieved. And yet the "greats" Kauto Star and Denman have started to show cracks in their armoury and it seems increasingly unlikely that they will ever win two let alone three Gold Cups. Because it took so long for Best Mate to equal Arkle’s post war record it surely told us how hard a feat it is, and if Denman is defeated next month, perhaps Best Mate will start at last to get more credit than was apparent at the time of his death.
I thought Paul Nicholls’ reaction was bizarre. His best horse and current GC holder runs a strange race. His jockey gets beat on him for the 2nd time and arguably does not ride the horse as he should – Denman normally front runs and by Nicholls’ own admission "he never wins from behind". Unlike after the Betfair Chase when Nicholls got all defensive, blamed Sam Thomas for the defeat, and claimed everyone is always slagging Kauto, yesterday he was very matter of fact, seeming to suggest the horse maybe had one good race in him which was the 2008 GC and is now on a downward spiral.
For me watching yesterday I found Walsh’s riding strange to say the least. Having taken up the running just under a circuit to go, the one place you want Denman to be, he seemed content to let Madison have the lead going out on the final lap. Then as Madison started to get several lengths up Walsh seemed painfully slow to react, sitting motionless until all the fences were jumped down the back and then starting to get busy rounding the home turn. By then, to my eyes, the gap was to far, and Walsh had let the race go. In that ground, which seemed pretty desperate to most trained eyes, it was asking some to give the current Hennessey winner that sort of lead and then expect ot give Denman a beating to make up the lost ground – imo Ruby was right not to beat the horse up, but was he right to take it so casually and only react when Scu had booted 6-7 lengths clear?
If I was Sam Thomas I would have felt pretty miffed that all the trainer could do post race was seemingly discredit the horse who had been so impressive last March, and make no reference to how easy Walsh had taken things. I cannot recall Walsh asking Denman for a "big one" at any stage ysterday, yet at Cheltenham Sam had ridden him very aggressively and asked him to take lengths out of his field at most of the jumps.
If we go back to Nicanor’s defeat of Denman at Cheltenham, that day too I felt Walsh had taken things too easy expecting his horse to find a turn of foot that he simply does not have – we know now he is an out and out galloper, like Carvill’s Hill but able to jump, and for me Walsh gets on with the horse far less than Thomas does.
It will be interesting to see if Thomas rides him at Cheltenham – I for one would give the horse another chance with Walsh back on Kauto Star.
One final post script. Denman seems to have been at the centre of some very bizarre betting patterns of late. First there is talk of connections favouring the National. The price halves, then the owners contradict that. Last week a plunge develops on McCoy to ride at Cheltenham – the connections and McCoy deny it after the money is down. Denman is 50% owned by a known pro-punter. Is it completely out of order to suggest that these rumours may have had something to do connections? It would be interesting if Denman hacks up in the Gold Cup at a half decent price in 4 weeks time. I wonder what we would make of the Kempton performance then, no least the less than positive riding tactics.
