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Allaho price is poor given that there’s a good chance he turns up following a prep run which creates question marks or after no prep run at all.
The Galopin Des Champs price is for all intents and purposes assuming that Allaho is a NR and is actually pretty fair. The problem is that 4/5 won’t make you rich and you’re likely lending WH your money for 3 months as even if Allaho doesn’t make it GDC will probably still head to the Gold Cup.
What could be an idea is to back a Gold Cup horse that will probably only run if it’s bottomless and would have a live chance and put it in a double with GDC in the Ryanair. More potential for return, but again likely lending WH your money and the possible disaster of the mud lark running on G/S anyway.
So the best idea is likely just to add GDC to any singles you were already going to do for the 5% chance of close to doubling your money. If WH are allowing you to use the daily bet boost on these then all the better.
Was going to post that the Grand Annual is on Wednesday now and Third Time Lucki is 33/1 with PP/BF; but then saw how horrendous the price is on Nube Negra. I thought he was 25/1 (I got on at 33’s for the princely sum of £1.50) but he’s been shortened to 16/1. Probably something to look at again when the NRNB prices come out.
‘Going’ doubles make the most sense to me. L’Homme Presse with another soft ground horse (preferably on Friday, but Thursday acceptable) would be one. Nube Negra with a good ground horse is pretty obvious (Wednesday obviously best, Tuesday NB).
Obvious manipulation can be proven fairly easily by taking the performance ratings put up by each trainer’s top finishing horse in class 1 handicaps compared with their previous runs. The sample size is definitely large enough for some fairly robust data analysis and would show who was responsible for the most outlier improvements.
Sure; the best trainers may have the luxury of sending graded performers who are down their pecking order to these races but again, those horses are supposed to run on their merits to establish a handicap mark. Elliott and Mullins sending horses over to Cheltenham to plunder the valuable handicaps at a rate which defies credibility needs to be stopped.
Handicap steamers in small races are one thing; but when high turnover races are subject to guessing which of a trainer’s multiple entries is the main plot then betting interest in said races will slowly diminish and accelerate the decline of national hunt racing.
My idea would be to maintain a decent number of grade 1 races such that a horse could be flexibly campaigned to only run off level weights if that was preferred. What need to be slashed are the grade 2 alternatives and there needs to be more incentive to run in handicaps.
One possible way would be to have a small number of top handicaps where for every lb above 150 in the OR you carry 1/4 less in these races, such that a 182 rated horse would race off 174.
So taking the couple of weeks just gone as an example: Scrap the Amlin, Peterborough and Many Clouds chases (as conditions races at least), reduce the distance of the Betfair to 2m 5.5f and make the ‘Hennessy’ a specially designated handicap as detailed above. The top staying chasers now have two big money options for their pre-Xmas run and both races are massively enhanced as spectacles.
I’d also revamp the programme in January and February including a Winter Champion’s day at Ascot (swap in the fixture list with Newbury’s early feb meeting) and a newly created valuable 3m G1 chase the week before at Sandown (the Cotswold at Cheltenham would become a handicap). According to the BHA top level racing pauses between the Xmas and Cheltenham which just makes me sad
: https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/major-events/If I was in charge at the BHA several big trainers would be put on notice that they would be prevented from having runners in grade 1 handicaps if they continued their obvious plotting tactics. It bothers me far more than smaller outfits making a mockery out of low grade and low turnover races.
Thanks for the update; I need to redeem myself here because my TRF Ten To Follow is looking abysmal!
Trainers make money through training fees primarily. It is therefore in their financial interest to run horses as few times as they can get away with to maximise longevity. A lot of owners also seem to be increasingly deferential and willing to follow the plan of building up to one or two target races per season (and the largely false hope of a Cheltenham winner) rather than striking while the iron is hot and the horse is fit and sound.
There are obviously other factors at play but I think the insidious creep of overcautious campaigning is driven to a large extent by the above.
Improved prize money, especially for 2nd and 3rd place would be a big help to the Grade One races prior to Cheltenham.
Perhaps get a sponsor and make them a series with prizes for the top trainers, jockeys and owners based on points.
Thanks for running the comp.
Ahoy Senor
Allaho
A Plus Tard
Blazing Khal
Constitution Hill
Energumene
Facile Vega
Gentleman De Mee
Mighty Potter
VaubanEdit:
@ ExRubyLight I looked into the morning and afternoon prices for Credrojava and altered my above post with the findings.
Either way; we all agree that it was a terrible cash out and hopefully if anyone here is ever in the same situation a clearer head will prevail.
It was fairly obvious that the Lucky 31 had to be EW; the numbers just didn’t work otherwise.
Have done some sleuthing and Credrojava was 11/2 morning price. The numbers quite don’t tally up (reported as £316k for the acca and £109k for the Lucky 31 by Betfair) if you take the other SPs but I’ve managed to match them exactly with the following prices: 14/1, 11/1, 8/1 and 5/1 which are all plausible.
Also by the time the 4th leg won Credrojava had shortened but only to 4/1.
Punter’s options given those prices:
Let it ride = £425k if Credrojava won, £15k if it lost (already banked via the Lucky 31).
Cash out just the acca = £145k if Credrojava won, £51k if it lost (a plausible option if about £50k had a lot of utility to the bettor).
The acca cash out wasn’t great value (took £36k which implies 7.75-1 about a morning 11/2 shot that was trading at 4-1) but is defensible.
The Lucky 31 cash out though was lunacy (implied odds of 12.5-1 and to add just £7k to an already banked £51k), an almost free shot in relative terms to win £95k literally thrown away.
For future reference a google search for bet calculator brings up a helpful tool: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator.html
If you have the first 4 legs of a Lucky 31 up then use the Lucky 15 calculator to see where you stand (or put the last runner as ‘lost’ in the Lucky 31 version).
From another forum; Farouk D’Alene not in training at the moment. Horse was injured in the fall at Cheltenham.
To make the numbers work it had to be something like a £1 EW Lucky 31 and £5 extra on the acca. In that case he was guaranteed over £10k anyway. A sensible option might have been to cash out the acca and let the Lucky 31 ride.
Commiserations to Michael; I thought you had it after Alpinista won the Arc with Luxembourg finishing down the field for me. I kept Bay Bridge in during the sub window somewhat by default as Desert Crown was injured and Nature Strip wasn’t due to run in any more races that would count (only G1 for outside of GB/IRE/FR). But with the ground being soft I did have a slight suspicion that if Stoute had him in good form he could do the business if Baaeed didn’t handle the conditions.
Many thanks to Graham for setting up the league and giving regular updates. My handful of paid entries in the TTF comp were fairly mediocre this year, but having my free one in a few private leagues with prizes kept things interesting and I enjoyed following this thread throughout the year. I tend to post mainly on another forum but if I get more time I’ll try to frequent the other boards on here more often rather than just lurking, though I can’t promise I’ll have that much useful input!
