[Cowan6891]

Silver Grey 50/1 for the Salisbury 4.05 tomorrow.

[Cowan6891]

TheBluesBrother,

Thanks for your link to the times, and also to your ratings.

I see that from your LBS/LENGTH figure you can give a horse a LBS rating akin to the OR by the BHA.

I won’t be so accurate with what I’m doing though. I want to know whether a given race was run in a slow (-2 lengths), average (-2 to +2 lengths), or fast final time (>+2 lengths). Obviously a fast class 6 finishing time may not equal an average class 3 finishing time.

I used to compile my own AW speed figures and to do this I had a list of standard times seperated by class. The difference was clear to see with better class races having faster times. The problem was I did it all by trawling through the form book, and it literally took months.

Any resources you know of that would let me do this faster?

[Cowan6891]

I came across this thread while searching for "racecourse standard times".

I play the big handicaps each day and along with draw bias, pace analysis plays a big part in my selection process.

Part of what I do is look at a horses previous runs to see how well it did pace-wise. To do this I need to know the race finishing time relative to the standard time for the race. I have been using the RP times but they look wrong, and everyone says they are wrong. Every race is ‘Slow by 3.02s’.

What I need is the standard time for each course, distance, and importantly, each class from 1-6.

You guys seems to know more than a bit about it and if someone could point me in the right direction it would be much appreciated.

[Cowan6891]

Just wanted to say a big thankyou to Jose1993 for the hard work he puts into this thread. I have learned alot reading this thread it is much appreciated.

I did a profit analysis on all selections so far to betfaif sp.

18 Sept 2010 to 3 Dec 2010

Selections: 231
Winners: 14
Strike Rate: 6%
Profit at BFSP: 211.53 (-5% commission already taken into account) (1pt level stakes)
ROI: 92%

So looking absolutely fantastic so far. Only downside is archie score of 0.08, which essentially means the results could be 99-100% based on luck so far.

While working through this I noticed most low odds selections do badly and that large (>50) prices account for the lions share of the proftits generated.

[Cowan6891]

I used to look at the trainer angle alot and developed a few systems around this but eventually reached the conclusion that as you say backfitting will result and no money can be made this way.

What I have had success with is look at what I’ll call ‘horse performance variables’. Things like position_lto, racetype_lto, handicap/non, speed_figures, draw_bias, going, and pace. Oh, and price(value) ofc.

I have a couple of systems I back to large stakes every day but I’m always on the lookout for something new. At the moment I’m developing a polytrack handicap sprint system (and its a lot of bloody trouble so far!!).

Did you know that despite making up 33% of the AW horse population, 45% of races are won by front runners. And horses drawn in the first 4 stalls at Wolverhampton over 5f win 44% of the handicap races.

Stuff like that seems more useful to me than X trainer shows +50pts at SP when sending his horses more than 200 miles.

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