[chuckypud]

it was hardly the ryder cup !! i couldn’t tell the difference between the european blue silks and the rest of the world black silks . it was hopeless for betting in running too . no wonder bbc and channel 4 didnt want it .

[chuckypud]

plenty to consider today as is normally the case on a sunday with only afternoon races for the tipsters to choose from .

2.10 redcar najoum 3 naps WON 8/13F

2.20 leicester harry luck 3 naps LOST 11/4 4TH

3.20 leicester ertikaan 3 naps LOST 11/8F 3RD

3.30 windsor ishbelle 3 naps WON 9/4 F

4.40 windsor entitled 5 naps LOST 4/7 F 2ND

[chuckypud]

big price saturday here again , last saturdays selections gave us evens and odds at 20/1 and face the problem at 4/6 .

todays selections are :

2.20 haydock our joe mac 3 naps WON 5/1
i like the look of this horse ,at its best on soft ground when 4 lengths infront of sealord in may, who has won 5 times since including the totesport mile 8 days ago. 6/1 each way looks very tempting .

2.35 newmarket khor sheed 3 naps 3RD 11/4
won a listed race 2nd time out very impressively and does get the soft ground , a competitive race but at 5/2 is a nice price.

3.10 newmarket sunraider 3 naps UNPLACED 3/1 FAV
not too sure on this one , does get the going and was 3 lengths behind hawkeyethenoo in the sky bet dash 2 weeks ago and did stay on so looked like 7f would suit , undecided

previous napped horses that lost

2.45 ascot opera gal 3RD 6/1
4.30 ascot emerging artist 2ND 2/1F
4.30 ascot yorgunnabelucky WON 9/1
6.50 lingfield bourgainvilla 3RD 11/4
7.40 ayr rascal in the mix UNP 5/1

[chuckypud]

hey billion , take no notice of my first figures as i did them incorrectly and although they was a slight difference between carrying weight and not so , the search was odds related . done it again just over hurdles and chases but was unable to include the going , but the figures for handicap chases say if a horse carries 11 lb 12lb 13lb etc less than the average weight, returns on sp are 116% compared to 85% return on sp for horses carrying 9lb or greater than the average weight

[chuckypud]

lol james , i know that feeling , i was gonna leave residence and spa and was gonna back fabiello as was such a good price and did fancy it but the commentator on live racing was saying how much r and s was thought of etc and that changed my mind and i put a small bet on residence and spa so was fuming after that race. and johnny castle i nibbled at and only just lost out so didnt mind that , jet away was the one i liked the most so had 4 point bet on that so finished the day happy .
as for todays i like fantasy fry’s chances and wigmore hall race looks a two horse affair and as chabal was fav for this years dante and has won group races and been disqualified i’d favour chabal.
the other two i will look at their races a bit more but on first glances they dont appeal.

[chuckypud]

Interesting idea, I did try something similar years ago,but got bored because it did not make money quick enough for me!
Incidentally with regard to Billions problem of reading the table, if you click on the heading of the column it will sort and group all similar bets together.

thanks purwell , that makes it much easier , i didnt know it did that

[chuckypud]

todays selections are as follows:

6.55 haydock: fantasy fry 4 naps 100/30 4th didn’t get the going

7.50 newmarket wigmore hall 3 naps 7/4 won easily

this horse was also selected on the 10th july receiving 4 naps and winning the 19 runner john smiths cup at 5/1

previously napped losing horses running today

7.35 mussleburgh le toreador n/r
8.10 mussleburgh tournedos 6/6

[chuckypud]

well so far just in the 5 days of august laying the favourites would have you £117.35 in profit , laying every fav at £2 with the 5% charge , thats 58.67 point profit . and today gave a 4 point profit even with 19 favourites winning out of 51 races a 37% strike rate.
in july there was 13 losing days and the biggest loss was by 20 points but most were about 5 . and these losing days were caused by big price favourites round 5/1 6/1 4/1 winning at the big meetings like glorious goodwood and galway festival and ascot and newmarket .the first ten days of july were 25 points up the next ten 17 points up and the last eleven when galway and goodwood was on was only 3.5 points up. its the big price winners that take your profits away . laying the short price horses is where the profit is and when they do win you dont lose much .

[chuckypud]

i can’t see this system working billion , if the ground is heavy then all the horses are affected the same i would have thought no matter how much weight they are carrying that particular race .

just ran it through the system on adrianmassey.com on heavy ground in handicaps and there’s 3% difference in the favour of horses 8lb and higher than the average weight compared to horses 8lb and lower than the average weight carried in the race.
and running it through the system with the horse carrying the average weight shows 1% lower than the higher weighted horses.

[chuckypud]

todays selections look a bit more promising

2.10 haydock : residence and spa 3 naps

6.45 sandown : johnny castle 3 naps

7.55 sandown : jet away 3 naps

previously napped losing horses running tomorrow

3.40 haydock : secretive and highland knight
4.10 haydock : calatrava cape
6.45 sandown : jehanbux

Do like the look of the first two selections and the chances of Secretive as well …i think i’ll be investing.

i like secretive too , not to sure about residence and spa , the going says soft and is up in trip too so lots of doubts and fabiello only just missed out 5 days ago so that might be significant it is running so soon again and generous genella looks quite short in price at 7/2 to say its never run before.
johnny castle looks promising to me and i did like him in dirty dancing but jehanbux does worry me .
i like jet away , the horses who came 2nd and third when it won 3 weeks ago have both won since so the form looks good but it does look a competitive race so will see if the market can persuade me to invest

[chuckypud]

todays selections look a bit more promising

2.10 haydock : residence and spa 3 naps 2nd 11/10f

6.45 sandown : johnny castle 3 naps 2nd 13/8f by a neck

7.55 sandown : jet away 3 naps won 2/1f by a neck

previously napped losing horses running tomorrow

3.40 haydock : secretive nowhere and highland knight 3rd

6.45 sandown : jehanbux won 2/1 2nf fav by a neck

[chuckypud]

hey munk, was reading your posts and recently joined betfair and was doing some research and stats on laying horses.
and if you had layed every favourite from every race in july you’d have been 35 points up.
thats without evening looking at form or trying to be selective .

[chuckypud]

unlucky james ,

only one selection today :

2.10 ponterfract holiday carnival 3 naps lost

not too sure myself why its been napped as does seem to be quite a competetive race , film festival who’s been napped before , won by 4 lengths last time in a class 3 , and river ardeche looks to have dropped to a favourable mark now and has gone close last 2 runs and umverti seems in good form too .
i will watch the market and see if that helps me decide whether to back it or not and it is an apprentice race too so not veyr confident myself on this one

[chuckypud]

what you can do billion , when you click on the naps table is in the bottom right corner it says 100% , if you click on it will change to 125% and the text will get bigger and another click bigger still . can mae it easier then

[chuckypud]

i dont think there is a way of it telling you how many have multiple naps , you could make the page size bigger on your comp for a few minutes whilst you scroll up and down it or just rely on me to post them as they are made available after midnight for the next day so i will do it then if not first thing . i find to take in all the horses on the list helps bring attention of other horses running that are fancied , like yesterday there was 3 horses that nearly qualified receiving two naps , which were george adamson which won well , and parvaas who has been selected by the system twice in the last month and had won and lost so i did back this again and it won nicely and invincible lad received two naps and won nicely too but i didnt back it .
like i said previously ive noticed horses that dont win do tend to win next time out like borderlescott was napped 5 times 8/13f on the 10th july and came 3rd but won next time out which was on thursday at goodwood at 9/2f but hadnt received 3 naps that day . same thing with hawkeyethenoo , received 5 naps 11/4 on 16th july at hamilton and came nowhere then won next time out up at york at 7/1 with out getting the 3 naps required .
same with eucharist , that received 4 naps 11/2 on 27th june and came 3rd and has won the last two times eves and 100/30f even though it didnt get the naps required, so when the system fails being that the horse doesnt run well or is unlucky in running etc they do tend to make up for it next time as they are good progressive horses alot of the time .
hanoverian baron is another , 3 naps 100/30 f on 3rd july run no race came 9 out of 13 then won next time out at ascot on the 23rd at 3/1 but didnt get the naps .
film festival 3 naps 2/1f 14th july came 2nd won next time out on the 25th july at 14/1.

have just done some figures on next time out runners who lost first time and out of 26 races have had 10 winners , a 40% strike rate and at £1 staked returned a profit of £22.62

[chuckypud]

lol billion ,
i am a bit of a night owl yes ,sometimes i start doing something and instead of gettin tired i just feel wide awake instead , i stayed up late last night working out what would have happened if i had layed all the favourites in every race here and in ireland last week on bet fair as joined the site last night and found it very interesting to watch the markets from the races at windsor and carlisle and whether i’d lay any of the horses . was so strange to go from thinking which horse will win to which one will lose.
i did notice miss dupree fitted into the majestic system , not sure if that means i have to back it once or twice today as for yesterday i chose maimi gator in that carlisle race again and it won even better than it did on saturday .

[chuckypud]

nevermind jodie kidd , what was matt dawson doing on the there , the idiots guide to horse racing i think it was meant to be . cant stand the bloke

[Author]

Posts