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fair point. i thought last years running was a strange strange event. not just because of a big priced winner but agreed, loads of runners in with a chance at the turn. its almost unheard of how many were there before they sprinted home.
it was 16 seconds slower that comply or die’s win the previous year and 17 slower than Silver Birch in 07.
all those doubtful stayers were able to get into a rhythm and fill their lungs with oxygen b4 giving it a go to last home.
surely this wont happen this yr will it?
i am going to try and find recordings of past 3 yrs runnings and time where the difference occured. ie: was last yr slow all the way through or did they slow up when black apalachi unseated at bechers’ 2nd time around as nothing wanted to take it up.
couldn’t disagree with you.
especially with the host of decent novices in the henderson camp, one wouldn’t of thought it beyond him to throw in one of his against dunguib to see where they are, and based on home work decide if bellvano, finians rainbow, general miller, quantativeeasing, oscar whiskey…the list goes on..is good enough!
i always used to put a line through horses that had run down the field in a previous National.
However, given the way last yr unfolded (i’d given up on Mon Mome whom i backed in 08 but i thought looked uninterested and best fresh) it is worth taking previous runs with a pinch of salt.
Therefore some of the unplaced and placed horses from 09 will have to go under the microscope.
Offshore Account – Bang there until fading late
Southern Vic – ran well in ground too quick
State of Play, Big Fella, Butlers….Are there no other Irish beasts that we can have a good look at to take Dunguib on with?
Visually impressive it was, but the form of Dunguib beating Some Present and co took a serious knock in the big novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Xmas.
Maybe the winner and 2nd from this race Hollo Ladies and Saludos are being overlooked?
Just a thought…
I had fun killing time whilst no national hunt racing has been on in past 48 hours and i’ve written down all winners of a Class 1 Chase in the past 3 seasons in UK and IRE.
As you can imagine, this has given me a long list to go at. then i have dismissed the 2 to 2&1/2 milers from that list and also scratched the 6/7yo’s and 12yo+ horses.
Its kind of a trends way of looking at it, in that you really do need a classy horse for the national and i use a Class 1 (formally "A") as my base.
I am left with over 20 horses and from this i have begun researching whether the GN will be the target, if they are likely to get in etc etc.
Guess i could wait for the entries but thought i would try and catch a few exchange layers on the cold…
