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ICON DREAM / 230 CHESTER
Torn between this horse and New Hampshire! I’ve opted on the basis that if this horse can chase the pace on this ground he’ll be in with a chance turning in for home.
£50 EW @ 12/1
BRAE HILL / 305 CHESTER
You know what you get with Brae Hill, solid consistent Koukash runner who should be within a fighting chance, bottom weight will be well backed but weight means nothing over 7f here.
£50 EW @ 12/1
LEXI’S HERO / 420 CHESTER
Absolute falling down the weights like an ice skater in a gym but more importantly the excellent Graham Lee is on board and should be an easy point-shoot jobby wobby here.
£100 WIN @ 7/2
VALID REASON / 455 CHESTER
Few old jumpers in here going to be slow of the mark so I hope this lightly raced lad can defy the draw 10 to get an early possie in which he should take some pegging back when kicking for home.
£100 WIN @ 9/2
£100 WIN / MISS ELLANY @ 10/30
£100 WIN / ROSSETTI @ 6/1
£100 WIN / DESERT ROMANCE @ 9/2
£100 EW / EDMAAJ @ 121£25 EW TREBLE (MISS ELLANY, DESERT ROMANCE, ROSSETTI)
£25 EW 4-FOLD ((MISS ELLANY, DESERT ROMANCE, ROSSETTI & EDMAAJ)Inside information from the Johnston stable is like trying to get blood out of a stone, you must have friends in high places GDC? Will watch your bets with interest today.
Your second paragraph is a classic example of what the psychology community defines as cognitive dissonance.
Your first is an example of what the psychology community defines as ‘talking bollocks’.
Mike
Didn’t know Newspapers were offering qualifications in psychology? what did you have to do, read the report and learn the exciting big words and now you’re ready to teach someone who has a degree in the subject?
You can claim they are random as the book says but when I popped in one day and saw a man playing the Roulette with the last 4 numbers being
0
I refuse to believe they are random.
I don’t ‘claim’ they are random, they
are
random and are regulated to be so. What you choose to believe is irrelevant.
There was a thread started on FOBT’s in the Mail online (I think) where a number of correspondents pointed out sequences such as yours as ‘proof’ the machines were fixed.
This is all a psychological trick caused by the brain’s desire to create order from a chaotic situation. As such, in any run of random numbers, a sequence such as 21-21-21-21 or 1-2-3-4 will always stand out. However, were I to create my own sequence, say 16-37-22-9, this too would occur in the fullness of time but unless someone was specifically looking for such a sequence it would go unnoticed. There is no difference between the three examples given apart from the non-linear form of the third group. This is why you never hear players saying “It’s all fixed, I had a run of 16-37-22-9”.
In fact, the only thing unusual about a sequence of four 0’s is how incredibly unusual (nigh on impossible in fact) it would be if it
never
occurred.
Mike
Yeah I know what you’re on about it’s called "clustering" it’s how we recognize and store numbers in our short term memory due to our ballistic covert eye movements that use "spotlight" searching based on locations not objects.
Anyway, it still doesn’t prove the theory that they are random and after that day I’ll never believe they are after that highly improbable occurance of four 0 in a row.
Rich you are off the ball here, watch the money keep flooding in for this horse! 25/1 shot now fella.
Writing off
Goodwood
as a £10,000 loss and have just sold some shares in
KEA Petrolium
to cover the damage but back to normal daily business here.
205 / GOODWOOD
Having endured the worst festival in living memory I’m inclined to find a way out of this ditch today and I believe the first race holds a few chances that are worth taking on especially bottom weight Jarrow who put up a Listed/Group 3 speed rating on perfect good ground recorded over a stiff 5f which may level any doubts over 6f today.
Looking elsewhere there are two horses franking Street Power’s Ascot win in Poole Harbour & Baby Strange who should be there or there abouts and the unfortunately named Jedward for Richard Fahey has an excellent record over in Ireland in these sort of race’s but the ground may need to be on the softer side.
Mike Murphy’s runner Lutine Bell was held up off a slow pace last time out but earlier on this season he made a pleasing debut behind Listed/Group 3 performer Palace Moon staying on strongly and they’ve been careful not to blow his mark with his latest run probably used to keep him ticking over for a race like this.
Willie Musson’s Novellen Lad has been touted to land one of these races for some time now as he’s the sort of horse who has all the ability to do and I’m under no illusions that today could see a 10lbs improvement on recent form.220 / NEWMARKET
Looking at this race I’m interested in Brian Meehan’s Mississippi who has attempted to race up with the pace at Ascot & Doncaster in his last two runs which were mammoth tasks for a horse having 4 runs to his name but performed admirably. There’s since been a slight relief of 4lbs in the weights with doubts over him getting home over the mile he’s stepping back to 7f here where his style of racing is more likely to pay off and we know he can accelerate from a handy position with the evidence being his Maiden win – looks overpriced.
240 / GOODWOOD
Interesting little race here with many coming in off inconsistent & patchy form but the one that’s caught my eye is Sir Mark Prescott’s Motivado who scythed down his field cutting through the pack at York before weakening unimpressively although that race was run in a crawl so there are extreme positives to take especially given the likely hood of a searching gallop here today.
255 / NEWMARKET
Intriguing Newmarket Nursery headed by top weight The Gold Cheongam who was a ready winner here 8 days ago but she’s short enough, there looks to be a nice prospect lurking down the bottom of the weights firstly in Rio’s Pearl for Ralph Beckett who improved markedly for the step up to 7f on good ground at Doncaster travelling on the bridle looking the winner right up until the finish line and if she’s not a flat track horse then the 10/1 is value here. The second horse to mention is Marco Botti’s Testamatta who has already had two runs here when held up towards the rear before racing prominently at Doncaster as she made an early move for home before being pipped over the 7f and everything here points to a Nursery plot running the wrong tactics at the wrong courses.
325 / NEWMARKET
Having felt hard done by after backing Odin last time out I think that he’s worth another shot here at today given that he needs a strong pace I can’t imagine the Lyssio or Ginger Jack connections settling towards the rear with both horses in hot form epitomised by chasing Encke through fast fractions at Sandown recently. With the ground looking likely to be on the firm side of good this will increase David Elsworth’s horse’s chances today as will the 10f which should see him finishing
strongly.335 / THIRSK
Crown Counsel made all the running at Windsor a few starts ago under a clever ride from Joe Fanning and may find competition against the old guard an easier test than the exploits he faced at Goodwood. The other horse to mention is Kyllachy Star who showed exceptional turn of foot at Newmarket last time out and with fellow hold up horse in that race Mabait showing up well in the Goodwood Mile there must be hope for Fahey’s horse who is beginning to slide down to a winnable mark.
355 / GOODWOOD
A lovely strong heritable most likely memorable Stewards Cup sprint with many boarding the Group/Handicap divide and many horses’ masters of their trade in these type of races. The second bottom weight horse for David Barron Elusive Prince is one I’ve already backed ante-post at 33/1 for big money given the time posted at Chester last time out with the runner up franking the form.
One horse that has lost his way is Lu Rei who put up a Group 2/3 time up at Epsom on Derby day whilst admittedly a few £’s have gone a miss it wouldn’t surprise me to see him come up trumps today for minor honours at least as he’s got the ability too.
The master GingerTipster has prompted me to be wary about Oasis Dream but I do believe he hasn’t been showing the quality that the horse genuinely possess and whilst this may not be a targeted race his ability to see out 7/8f in strong run races could prove vital.415 / THIRSK
Course & Distance winner Lucky Numbers was slow away in a moderately run sprint on the Knavesmire last week but finds himself off a lenient mark prompting David O’Meara to try out the first time eye shields for that extra boost to a lazy who that is more than likely going to be picking up strongly at the finish here.
435 / DONCASTER
John Gosden’s 3yo Gelding Ex Oriente may hold a better chance than the morning market suggests given the horse efforts here at Doncaster on Lincoln meeting when he made the pace he wasn’t disgraced beaten just the 3l with some solid rivals in behind. The yard have recently tried headgear in the form of blinkers which hasn’t brought about an improvement in form but the horse is honest and with the new hold up tactics combined with the removal of blinkers he should be there at the finish.
440 / NEWMARKET
Not the best of races in truth while it may be worth keeping the faith with John Dunlop’s Knightly Escapade here who finds himself still on a light mark off 79 even though he was well beaten off a slow pace at Sandown as 11/4f last time out he acts well on the track and may have been campaigned over a little too far but most importantly I expect Arizona John & Braveheart Move to set a sound pace like that have previously for Number Theory at Haydock but this time bring in some of the second half stayers this season.
515 / NEWMARKET
Dilemma, dilemma, dilemma! – But why? Well it has something to do with Street Power putting up at Group 2/1 speed rating at Ascot last time out but hold your horses that’s not a reflection on the class of the horse but we know in sprints the transparency from Group & Handicap is impartial which means that you don’t necessarily have to be a Group class animal to run such times due to the nature of the beast.
Now what do we do here as the Handicapper’s taken note in rising him 7lbs , watching the video the horse looks completely different to the Street Power we know in recent years but he did have a spell on the All Weather racking up fast times then proceeded in having a baron spell through injuries and loss of form.
Is the power back? Can we expect a late charge through the Handicaps ala Ayr Gold Cup en route to L’Abbaye? Who knows but I will be taking the chance on him backing up his Ascot victory as the time’s too good to pass.£50 ew > Jarrow @ 16/1
£50 ew > Novellen Lad @ 25/1
£100 ew > Mississippi @ 16/1
£50 ew > Testamatta @ 16/1
£50 ew > Kyllachy Star @ 10/1
£100 ew > Rio’s Pearl @ 10/1
£50 ew > Lucky Numbers @ 8/1
£50 ew > Crown Counsel @ 20/1
£100 ew > Odin @ 12/1
£250 win > Knightly Escapade @ 9/2
£250 ew > Street Power @ 12/1
£50 ew > Motivado @ 10/1
£150 win > Ex Oriente @ 9/2
£100 ew> Lu Rei @ 25/1
£250 EW > Elusive Prince @ 33/1
£50 ew > Oasis Dancer @ 40/1
£1 Any order Tricast (Lutine Bell, Jedward, Baby Strange, Poole Harbouer & Novellen Lad)
£1 Any order Tricast (Oasis Dancer, Lu Rei, Elusive Prince, Waffle, Lexi’s Boy)
£10 Each Way Doubles (Elusive Prince, Street Power, Knightly Escapde & Ex Oriente)
£10 Each Way Doubles (Jarrow, Lu Rei, Mississippi & Odin)
£10 Each Way Doubles (Novellen Lad, Lucky Numbers, Rio’s Pearl & Motivado)
£10 Each Way Accumlator (Novellen Lad, Lucky Numbers, Rio’s Pearl & Motivado)
£10 Each Way Accumlator (Jarrow, Lu Rei, Mississippi & Odin)
£10 Each Way Accumlator (Elusive Prince, Street Power, Knightly Escapde & Ex Oriente)You can claim they are random as the book says but when I popped in one day and saw a man playing the Roulette with the last 4 numbers being
0
I refuse to believe they are random.
235 / GOODWOOD
£100 EW > SAIGON @ 25/1
310 / GOODWOOD
£118 WIN > Sir Reginald @ 25/1
£236 WIN > Field Of Dream @ 12/1
£146 WIN > Mister Music @ 20/1£1 ANY ORDER TRICAST (SIR REGINALD, FIELD OF DREAM, MISTER MUSIC, MABAIT, ALBAAQAA)
345 / GOODWOOD
£100 EW > ANGEL’S WILL FALL @ 12/1
420 / GOODWOOD
£250 EW > CARLTON BLUE @ 8/1
450 / GOODWOOD
£100 EW > PERFECT TRIBUTE @ 25/1
525 / GOODWOOD
£130 WIN > KYLEAKEN LASS @ 16/1
£170 WIN > HARRY TROTTER @ 12/1
£200 WIN > HARRY TROTTER @ 10/1£1 ANY ORDER TRICAST (TIOMAN LEGEND, JWALA, KYLEAKEN LASS, HARRY TROTTER)
£10 EW DOUBLES (SAIGON, KYLEAKEN LASS, PERFECT TRIBUTE, SIR REGINALD, ANGEL’S WILL FALL)
System’s investor
LOL! that’s a new one, will make sure I have a laugh about that on course this weekend.
David Barron’s machine gets in for the Stewards Cup by the skin of his teeth! oh how I was sweating with a monkey riding at
33/1
.
Having looked at your results today,maybe you would like to update the thread with your goodwood and then also overall
Maybe it’s just a minor blip or maybe you just had a little luck last week!! Whatever you alone have without doubt proved this week that you are not even a top tipster on here let alone the best
As always good luck tomorrow, to prove I have no hard feelings here are 2 for you:
Albaqaa and Vainglory EW in the Mile
Aljamaheer will give Gregorian a race for sure
I don’t mix Festivals with my day job hence I haven’t updated the records because I’ll do the Festival separately.
I’m about £6-7,000 down in 4 days on gut feeling but I still have a fair amount of profit to go back to on the day to day betting where I make monumental amounts of money.
Sorry to get your "hopes" up if you think these Goodwood selections were apart of my day to day bets.
I hope in due course you manage to tip a winner on this forum GDC because your betting accounts might be growing cob-webs.
Having a dreadful
Goodwood
, normally make between £6,000-15,000 a year but have been below my best by some considerable margin.
Might have to go back to the day to day selective betting using my statistically significant form analysis that has catapulted me to success on here in recent weeks and what has made me one the best punters in the country.
Will give
Goodwood
one more day to see if anything changes before going back to a more professional approach.
Richard, you seem to be a very aggressive person and wouldn’t like to conversate with you too much on here as I feel quite threatened.
