Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
The SAAFA ( well backed winner )/ QETHAARA ( value selection ) exacta payed £25.70, not that I had it, of course… .
Sometimes an odds line is unnecessary : you look at a race and can only fancy a single runner ; in this case you take whatever’s on offer. Two contenders ? How about 6/4 each of two ? Simple. However once you’ve done a few odds lines with at least three contenders you begin to get a feel for what would be a fair price on a particular runner without actually working it all out in detail. Here’s a case in point.
Today’s 3:15 at Wolverhampton is a 0-85 handicap, class 4, over roughly 14 furlongs.
WILD DESERT – Trip likely to be too sharp. E
COVERT DECREE – Won last time out. Fitness may be an issue but cannot discount. C
PITTODRIE STAR – Decent effort LTO over today’s trip at Musselburgh. Likely winner. B
RAJEH – Recent form crook ; highly unlikely. F
AL KHAWANEEJ – Facile winner LTO. Up a mountain in the weights but debuting for Dave Simcock and open to further improvement. C
QUINSMAN – Been in good form of late but probably needs a career best to defy curent mark in this grade. D
MISTER GREEN – Stamina issues. Unlikely. ERanking the contenders :
PITTODRIE STAR – B
COVERT DECREE – C
AL KHAWANEEJ – CThe first set of prices I saw were as follows : PS 5/2 ; CD 3/1 ; AK 5/1 ; Qu’ 8/1. Just looking at these odds made me realise there was little, if any, value to be had with each horse within half-a-point of a fair price. That could be important because if you took the view that the race was between three you might simply back the biggest priced horse of the three, AK in this case. However, 9/2 / 5/1 just doesn’t look like good value in the context of this race. Well, we shall see !
Incidentally, another benfit of the odds line is the way in which market moves can be put into context. A horse you rate a D or even an E that shortens considerably is obviously worth a second look. You may not back it to win ( how could you, all the value’s gone ?! ) but it can make for a nice exacta when coupled with your value selection. The last race we looked at was a good example of just that.
QEETHAARA turned out to be the value selection at an SP 7/2 ( had been much bigger at around 11/2 ) but the market spoke volumes and she was beaten into second by the well backed SSAFA ( 7/2 ). Interestingly, my hunch had been that the winner would in fact be ZING WING, so at least the line stopped me having a hopeless bet on her… .
-2 points
Running profit = + 1 point.
LINGFIELD 3:50 0-75 fillies’ hcp over 8f
A
very
tricky race and not easy to make a line for this one.
MIDAS MOMENT – Never a fan of backing runners off a long layoff unless they’ve previously won following an absence and the yard is 0-10 in the last 14 days, but fillies often run well fresh and she’s 2-3 on the a/w, so hard to dismiss. Rating = D
ZING WING – Same comments re’ layoff apply here too but she did at least run 2nd by half a length on her 2yo debut. Has yet to finish out of the first two on the a/w, albeit from just the two starts, and probably has a bit in hand of the handicapper off a mark of 71. Mile should suit and just edges it over Midas Moment. Rating = C
QEETHAARA – Fit and comes into the race off a win. Obvious claims. Rating = B
SSAFA – Hard to enthuse over having been thumped LTO over a mile at Kempton. Down a couple of pounds but surprise if she gets involved. Rating = E
CLIMAXFORTACKLE – Recent form poor and still 2lb in excess of her last winning mark. Rating = E
BOLD RING – Recent efforts not up to much and not well handicapped but deserves a modicum of respect on her course record. Rating = E
LINE :
QEETHAARA – B 33% 2/1
ZING WING – C 25% 3/1
MIDAS MOMENT – D 20% 4/1
BOLD RING – E 10% 9/1
SSAFA – 6% 16/1
CLIMAXFORTACKLE – 6% 16/1Carlisle 2:50
1st Degas Art 5/2
2nd Rich Lord 5/4f2 point win on DEGAS ART at 5/2 = 5 points.
Carlisle 3:55
1st You Know Yourself 4/1
2nd Isla Pearl Fisher 3/1
3rd Vamizi 13/8fNo bet.
Musselburgh 4:25
1st Shamarlane 8/1
2nd Cabal 9/2
3rd Seldom 7/2f1 point win Seldom = -1 point
1 point win Cabal = -1 pointProfit to date : + 3 points
Look a touch unlucky there at Musselburgh but SHAMARLANE was well backed and not unusual to see a horse making its debut for a new trainer winning. Interesting comment made on Timeform Radio that Clive Mulhall is merely a figurehead, the horse actually being trained by someone else… .
Ground may have gone against them but looks like two 1 point bets on SELDOM and CABAL who are both offering good value at around 4/1-9/2.
In the 2:50 it looks like a 2 point win on DEGAS ART at around 9/4. Interesting move on Political Paddy ; be interesting to see how it fairs.
A going change at Musselburgh could have implications in the 4:25 with both SELDOM and CABAL probably happier on firmer. PROHIBITION, in contrast, has won on heavy.
3:55 Carlisle class 3 handicap chase over 24 1/2f.
MORGAN BE : Hasn’t scored off this sort of mark (121) since January 2009. Ideally wants it softer and all wins going left-handed. Carlisle course record = 5873. Rating = E
VAMIZI : Carlisle record = 221 and only 5lb higher for 3 1/4L win LTO. Obvious claims back here. Rating = B
HARRY FLASHMAN : Looks happiest going left-handed and all three chase wins at Hexham. Debut at this track. Not impossibly treated off 120 ( won off 109 but gone close off 120 already )and decent record fresh, but chase record going right-handed ( 42234, all at Perth ) suggest place chances stronger than that for the win. Rating = D
YOU KNOW YOURSELF : Horse-for-course with a 100% record here having won twice over 20f. Falling back to a winnable mark after a spell in the doldrums and worth considering with yard in good form. Rating = C
AMMUNITION : Last win came over the marathon distance of 31 furlongs at the stamina sapping Exeter. Surely wants a greater test of stamina than this now, for all it’s a stiff 3 miles. Rating = D
ISLA PEARL FISHER : 4-12 over fences and won off 106 LTO. Rated 110 here but Lucy Alexander claiming 5lbs so ostensibly running off 105. However, her record on IPF now reads U4. Legit’ excuse for 4th as ground was riding too soft, but being unseated three out at Newcastle strikes a note of caution. Rating = B
Odds line :
VAMIZI : B 29% 5/2
ISLA PEARL FISHER : B 27% 11/4
YOU KNOW YOURSELF : C 17% 5/1
HARRY FLASHMAN : D 13% 13/2
AMMUNITION : D 9% 10/1
MORGAN BE : E 5% 20/1To be worthy of a bet a horse must be rated between A to C and offer at least a 50% overlay ( so if it is 6/4 the required odds would be 9/4, if 2/1 it would be 3/1, and so on ). It is necessary to have at least some margin for error for all those times one is hideously wrong… ! Prices of all possible contenders will be compared in the five minutes before the off and bets struck on those offering the best value at that time and that time only. It’ll ether be two points win or one point each-way.
3:55 Carlisle class 3 handicap chase over 24 1/2f.
MORGAN BE : Hasn’t scored off this sort of mark (121) since January 2009. Ideally wants it softer and all wins going left-handed. Carlisle course record = 5873. Rating = E
VAMIZI : Carlisle record = 221 and only 5lb higher for 3 1/4L win LTO. Obvious claims back here. Rating = B
HARRY FLASHMAN : Looks happiest going left-handed and all three chase wins at Hexham. Debut at this track. Not impossibly treated off 120 ( won off 109 but gone close off 120 already )and decent record fresh, but chase record going right-handed ( 42234, all at Perth ) suggest place chances stronger than that for the win. Rating = D
YOU KNOW YOURSELF : Horse-for-course with a 100% record here having won twice over 20f. Falling back to a winnable mark after a spell in the doldrums and worth considering with yard in good form. Rating = C
AMMUNITION : Last win came over the marathon distance of 31 furlongs at the stamina sapping Exeter. Surely wants a greater test of stamina than this now, for all it’s a stiff 3 miles. Rating = D
ISLA PEARL FISHER : 4-12 over fences and won off 106 LTO. Rated 110 here but Lucy Alexander claiming 5lbs so ostensibly running off 105. However, her record on IPF now reads U4. Legit’ excuse for 4th as ground was riding too soft, but being unseated three out at Newcastle strikes a note of caution. Rating = B
Odds line :
VAMIZI : B 29% 5/2
ISLA PEARL FISHER : B 27% 11/4
YOU KNOW YOURSELF : C 17% 5/1
HARRY FLASHMAN : D 13% 13/2
AMMUNITION : D 9% 10/1
MORGAN BE : E 5% 20/1To be worthy of a bet a horse must be rated between A to C and offer at least a 50% overlay ( so if it is 6/4 the required odds would be 9/4, if 2/1 it would be 3/1, and so on ). It is necessary to have at least some margin for error for all those times one is hideously wrong… ! Prices of all possible contenders will be compared in the five minutes before the off and bets struck on those offering the best value at that time and that time only. It’ll ether be two points win or one point each-way.
Couple of things.
I’ve also posted on the systems forum and will be carrying on there instead of here.
The Blues Brother : Are they speed or form ratings ?
Moving out of my comfort zone for this next race, a class 3 novices’ chase over 20f at Carlisle ( Saturday 2:50 ).
From top to bottom :
DEGAS ART : Carries a 10 lb penalty having won its last two starts in novice company, including a win over two miles at the track on its last run. Beat Kai Broon at Kelso who subsequently won next time out in a class 4 handicap back at that track. Form of last win also franked with runner-up Saddle Pack winning his next start. Has something to find at the weights with RICH LORD and is up in trip, but looks to have a good chance in a relatively weak contest. Rating = B.
RICH LORD : Best in at the weights rated 122, like DA, carrying 11-4 and with Lucy Alexander taking off a further 5lb. First chase win LTO came over a furlong further here on heavy ground. Fifth placed Soul Bid came out and won a maiden chase next time out, although three others from that race have failed to win since. Hard to knock since he’s struck up a good relationship with rider Lucy Alexander, but worrying the Racing Post had this to say after his victory : "His rider continues to impress and she clearly gets on well with him, but his profile dictates he´s one to be taking on again next time out". Still, cannot dismiss. Rating = C.
DOUBLE EXPRESSO : Not too bad an effort last time out behind Willie Hall, but has 12lb to find with both DA and RL and would likely need both to run below par to have any chance. Rating = D
POLITICAL PADDY : Already been beaten twice over course/distance in slightly lower grade and requires a leap of faith to imagine him getting involved. Rating = E
SHEEPCLOSE : Won debut bumper back in 2009 but very modest over hurdles since. Switch to fences only hope of a revival and that surely still a slim one. Rating = F
So in order of ratings we have :
DEGAS ART B 40% 6/4
RICH LORD C 35% 15/8
DOUBLE EXPRESSO D 14% 6/1
POLITICAL PADDY E 8% 12/1
SHEEPCLOSE F 3% 33/1Moving out of my comfort zone for this next race, a class 3 novices’ chase over 20f at Carlisle ( Saturday 2:50 ).
From top to bottom :
DEGAS ART : Carries a 10 lb penalty having won its last two starts in novice company, including a win over two miles at the track on its last run. Beat Kai Broon at Kelso who subsequently won next time out in a class 4 handicap back at that track. Form of last win also franked with runner-up Saddle Pack winning his next start. Has something to find at the weights with RICH LORD and is up in trip, but looks to have a good chance in a relatively weak contest. Rating = B.
RICH LORD : Best in at the weights rated 122, like DA, carrying 11-4 and with Lucy Alexander taking off a further 5lb. First chase win LTO came over a furlong further here on heavy ground. Fifth placed Soul Bid came out and won a maiden chase next time out, although three others from that race have failed to win since. Hard to knock since he’s struck up a good relationship with rider Lucy Alexander, but worrying the Racing Post had this to say after his victory : "His rider continues to impress and she clearly gets on well with him, but his profile dictates he´s one to be taking on again next time out". Still, cannot dismiss. Rating = C.
DOUBLE EXPRESSO : Not too bad an effort last time out behind Willie Hall, but has 12lb to find with both DA and RL and would likely need both to run below par to have any chance. Rating = D
POLITICAL PADDY : Already been beaten twice over course/distance in slightly lower grade and requires a leap of faith to imagine him getting involved. Rating = E
SHEEPCLOSE : Won debut bumper back in 2009 but very modest over hurdles since. Switch to fences only hope of a revival and that surely still a slim one. Rating = F
So in order of ratings we have :
DEGAS ART B 40% 6/4
RICH LORD C 35% 15/8
DOUBLE EXPRESSO D 14% 6/1
POLITICAL PADDY E 8% 12/1
SHEEPCLOSE F 3% 33/1
