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Literal form is hard to quantify this early in the season and a 4 runner race doesn’t help.
I think Pru’s comments as already highlighted give the best analysis of Toronado’s chances and am very interested in any paddock judges views of how he looked.
It does look like a 2 horse race for the 2000 Guineas at the moment. Still with Dawn Approach (unbacked!) for me.
If the ground is drying out like it suggests I will try Bradley in this, as he is clearly not going to Sandown!
Interested in Nuts N Bolts and Fill The Power too.
WHAT A NAME won trail race in france and looks to be coming over only danger i see is JUSTHEJUDGE.
Never saw the race Darren but it looked a bit of a blanket finish on paper, with about a length and a half covering the first five home. I think she is plenty short enough at 6/1 in some places now but it does look pretty wide open and she would be a definite contender if coping with travelling and facing a mile at Newmarket.
Looked a typical french race to me. Not that fast a pace and she came through to win reasonably comfortably in the circumstances.
Special Duty "won" the Guineas (DQ of 1st past the post) after only coming 3rd in the same race and Natagora won it too.
Think What A Name looks the strongest contender although good to see Dermot Weld have a winner today for Big Break supporters too.
I am looking closely at both of Fergal O’Brien’s runners in this race. Neither are certain to run or get in, but both have interest for me.
BRADLEY
would be my preferred runner, but he may go to Ayr instead as he is in Scottish National too.
He looks fairly handicapped from his first two runs of the seasons – he is now back down to 133, which was his mark when second to Monbeg Dude. He has shown form RH when winning a fair novice chase last year at the course. He also will stay the distance well and will act on the (hopefully!) better ground than he has had the last twice.
I am quite happy to put his last two runs down to running on soft/heavy ground that he would not like. The trainer has sensibly given him a nice break since his run at Warwick which will hopefully have got him back on track. I am sure he is well handicapped and will be interested in him whichever race he might run in!
CREEVYTENNANT
has slightly more concerns, but if he were to run here I would still be interested in him too.
A shrewd hunter chase judge thought him capable of pushing Salsify close, although really wanted it to be RH rather than at Cheltenham. The RH preference was clearly shown at Cheltenham with marked jumping the "wrong way". He then won, back RH, in a reasonable sort of race at Ascot.
I suspect he may be a bit better than that Ascot run as, whilst he got a free lead, I think his jockey may have over-done the tactics of getting a breather and let the others get too close. However, when they did the horse went away again.
Neither are Ante-Post punts for me given the number of runners above them in the race. Fergal kindly responded to my query about Creevytennant on Twitter and said that the race is a genuine possibility for him.
Always interested in any other opinions!
Decided to do my own research!
In 15 years, there have been 2 winners that ran in the National. Both unseated (at the 19th, oddly enough) and they were Puntal in 2004 and Ad Hoc in 2003.
The Scottish National, just a week before, seems to have been a little bit of a pointer with a couple of horses that have ran well in that going on to success.
Slightly surprising that the Ayr race being so close would still allow for a winning return just a week later, both over marathon trips in good company.
Not sure I would be looking at horses that ran well in the Aintree Grand National winning this though given how hard a race it seems to be?
Did like Opening Batsman for this as I think he is just better going RH. However, he was running pretty well at Aintree before pulling up sharply. His trainer has since said that "Noel felt he was not the same horse as at Kempton. We are currently assessing him before making any further decisions."
Have many won this following a run in the National btw?
Where is the pace coming from in this race? Possibly Zarkandar with first time blinkers? If Ruby could set a slow gallop that might suit him, but I can’t see this being a true run race.
Quite like the 1st and 2nd from the past two years. Oscar Whisky has a bit more to prove after that hard race on heavy in January, which I suspect was the reason for his dismal World Hurdle run. If NJH has him back to his best then 6/1 is good.
However, I think Thousand Stars at 10/1 is better value as he has more time to recover from his "flop", likes this course and distance, comes to hand at this time and is a big price considering he has twice finished 2nd (to Oscar Whisky) in the race.