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Well I’m back after the Cheltenham dust has settled!
Terrible festival for me, the worst I can ever remember….that being part the reason I didn’t play on this thread, confidence went a bit with another loser the last time…..
Been there seen it done it Zam! Dont change a thing if you know your ‘foundations’ are solid! The Worm will turn,Patience and discipline mate,patience and discipline!
Yeah cheers mate…..just got through a bad period for me aswell…same every year, change in seasons, change in ground, back end of one season, beginning of another, hard to gage a lot of the form so have been real quiet of late…..back today though full of hope again at what looks some quality racing..
Just looking back through a few that have let me down though….Trans Sonic won last time out at 7’s I think it was, beating a heavy odds on jolly and Catherine’s Call….drifted from odds on to 15/8 in a 4 horse race when I put it as a maximum (thinking it had about 20lb in hand)…..was beaten again next time at evens in another 4 horse race, then won an ultra competitive 14 runner handicap the other week at 14’s!!!….really tough game sometimes….
Last one put up was another that failed to make the frame so will update figures at the end….funny thing is, it’s been a terrible run but am still playing in huge profit….just need to get back on the winning trail…..anyway couple I like today…
2.40 – Doncaster –
Sirius Prospect
Finished the season as one of the most improved sprinters around and certainly went in my notebook as a potential group horse for this year the way he won his last couple. Most of this field are what they are and I don’t see anything lurking with potential hidden improvement in them. The selection though just kept on improving and improving once he found his trip (5 wins from 6 at 6f) and I reckon there’s a fair bit more to come this season. Stable had a winner yesterday so absolutely no worries there. Strongly fancy this today….
8pt win @9/4 (Ladbrokes) B.O.G
3.15 – Doncaster –
Fury
Unoriginal selection I know, but 2yo form there for all to see. Just total respect for the trainer with ones like this and although a risky proposition with whether the operation worked and can bring about something near to that excellent 2yo form, that is reflected in the current price….
3pts ew @7/1 (Boylesports) B.O.G
Running totals…
Selections – 23
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 1
Losses – 16+130.88pts
Well the poor run continues….really disappointed with Sirius Prospect, think the horse is a lot better than that finishing position and is still certainly one I’ll be following….Fury held every chance a furlong or two out but just didn’t pick up like I thought he might, still a slight place profit on that one though to lessen the damage on the day a bit…
Gonna have a little go with one tomorrow…
5.00 – Lingfield –
Hidden Glory
Looks a competitive little handicap this and I like the chances of James Givens runner. The horse has been dropping down to what looks a winnable mark and has got close to troubling the judge a few times lately at Wolves running over 9f off marks in the mid 70’s. Strangely enough the horse was then stepped up to 17f and then last time 11f, but goes back over what I think is it’s best distance tomorrow (10f)….it’s last AW victory came over CD last January off a mark of (83) and tomorrow it runs off (72)…the booking of Paul Hanagan is a bit of an eye-catcher aswell and says to me everything is in place for a decent showing…
2pts ew @14/1 (Ladbrokes) B.O.G
Running totals…
Selections – 25
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 2
Losses – 17+125.88pts
Just seen another that I think must have a squeak at a huge price…
7.30 – Wolves –
Sky Diamond
Race could be all about the favourite but a look through this horses profile suggests to me it’s dropped right back down to a mark (56) it’s profile suggests it’s more than capable of running a big race off. Can easily forget it’s last effort at Southwell as it’s only previous run there ended in a similar performance and it came out and run a much better race the time after. Stable is also in excellent form so well worth a small interest for me..
1pt ew @40/1 (Bet365) B.O.G
For the purpose of update….Sky Diamond was a non-runner and although halfing in price Hidden Glory couldn’t manage to run into a place, so we’re still struggling to get back into the winning habit….
Grand National day and hidden away at another meeting could be a little gem. Is one of only two horses in my notebook from last seasons flat and I’ve waited over 300 days for this…..
4.45 – Lingfield –
Sandbetweenourtoes
Ran a belter on debut at huge odds of 40/1 in what turned out to be a pretty decent maiden which has thrown up plenty of winners…..very unusual for one of Meehans to know it’s job so much on debut and run so well as they’re a renowned yard for needing a run…..was a warm favourite for it’s 2nd run at Donny where it never went a yard on sticky ground…..don’t think there should be a problem with the surface today and trip should be no problem either…..there was obvious problems after that as it played up before it’s 3rd engagement and never took part, but hopefully the gelding will have sorted that out……that first run was excellent though and the fact it ran so well first time should also take care of any worries about the 307 day absence…..really, really strong on this today!!
8pt win @2/1 (Bet365) B.O.G
Running totals…
Selections – 26
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 2
Losses – 18+121.88pts
Three years and a bit on I think it’s time to carry this on! Glad it didn’t get lost in the swap over as although I was on a run of quite a few losers was still playing with over 100pt profit!! Anyway, I’ve been doing one on another place I post for the last few months (with quite a bit of success) so will put same selections in here aswell….I really fancy one tomorrow so will just copy and paste what I’ve already put about it….
2.00 – Newbury – Pepite Rose
Now we all know there’s no guarantee’s in racing, anything can happen and they are only animals at the end of the day….for any form students though and anyone who likes to follow patterns etc…in a horses profile, you will not see a better one than this over the weekend!
Looking through her profile she clearly comes to herself at this time of year….just taking the month of March as a sample her form in her career for that month reads…..4111F21…..on closer inspection, the 4th was early on in her career….the (F) was in a race at Newbury where she was absolutely tanking in 2nd/3rd and came down 3 out…I strongly feel she would have won that race….and the 2nd was a short header…
Her career form at Newbury is outstanding….
In 4 runs at the course there has just been that blip where she fell (a race I think she would have won) her other three visits all ended in wins….here are the in running comments from those 3 wins…
” Held up, mistake 7th, soon went 4th, jumped right 4 out, led on bit 2 out, soon clear, easily ”
” Chased leaders, not fluent 1st, not fluent 4 out, soon went 2nd going well, led approaching last, sauntered clear ”
” Held up towards rear, headway on outside approaching 7th, chasing leaders when hit next, led 3 out, clear next, kept on strongly, very easily ”
Those three wins were off marks of (111) (135) & (145)…..the latter one being in this very same race last year….
It’s clear she is a much, much better horse around Newbury than anywhere else as her profile clearly shows, and she’s much, much better at this time of year…..when hacking up in this race last year she came into it off the back of an 8th of 8 beaten 41 lengths, so her 4th of 7 last time out beaten 17 lengths is absolutely nothing to worry about….
She’s actually been very highly tried since winning this last year….excellent efforts in grade 1’s behind Boston Bob at Aintree and Sire De Grugy at Sandown….then outclassed this season in the likes of the Haldon Gold Cup & Tingle Creek….that is much better than she ran in last year leading up to winning this race but she somehow arrives on the same mark (145)
The only slight reservations can be the in and out form of Venetia Williams and the fact that she is always prone to the odd mistake here and there….I absolutely love her profile though…everything points to an absolutely massive run…I just cannot see how she won’t take the World of beating in this….I’m going for a maximum 5pt win at the first best odds I see!!
so….5pt win (Coral) 9/2 (B.O.G)
Running totals…
Selections – 27
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 2
Losses – 19+113.88pts
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