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I must be insane!!
No sooner have I declared on here I’m leaving the all weather alone I’m drawn back in again tomorrow, for one FINAL time (if no joy!)…
Cannot let this one slip by though because been waiting ages and must have lost more money on this one horse than any other for a while thinking ‘today must be the day’…
Well, I think tomorrow could well be the day for….
13.20 – Lingfield –
Chjimes
As I say, been waiting for a win for this one for ages as it’s surely back on a winning mark and seems to look like it will win next time out every run…..tomorrow’s race looks very winnable and I’m sure it will go desperately close and hopefully WIN!!
8pt win @3/1 (Betvictor) B.O.G
Good luck Zam, can’t have him at all looks well short of speed for 5f these days! amazed he was so short this morning! Plenty of good bets to be had on the all weather don’t turn it in just yet!
Haha cheers mate! Think it’s safe to say that was more a sentiment than sensible bet, funny how this game works though and the old dog prevails for another winner and some nice profit!! Reckon the horse still owes me though….
Only going to go with one for tomorrow despite fancying another couple strongly….will be my first maximum 10 pt bet aswell as I’m very confident of a big run…..
2.50 – Doncaster –
Wayward Prince
I’m predicting a bold showing tomorrow off a mark of 146 for this horse, just a lb lower than a fine effort in last seasons RSA at the end of an excellent season of novice chasing.
This season has been visibly tougher but I believe I’ve seen enough in the last two runs to suggest this horse certainly has the ability to be very, very competitive tomorrow.
I think Timmy Murphy will settle the horse out like he has been doing and will creep into it late on and deliver his challenge to perfection and this time see the race out strongly like he’s failed to do the last couple after coming into the races promisingly…
Already a course winner at Doncaster and no problem with the ground….the huge thing for me tomorrow is the fantastic recent form of the Ian Williams yard….his horses are in terrific form and I think his stable star can bounce right back to his best tomorrow and be right in the shake up!
5pts ew (Maximum) @8/1 (Bet365) B.O.G
Running total…
Selections – 13
Wins – 4
Place profit – 1
Losses – 8+78.13pts
Well, so disappointed with Wayward Prince, never went a yard really on a day when everything looked right and was backed accordingly…that’s the game though….
Really fancy one at a price tomorrow….
13.40 – Taunton –
Hobbs Dream
With the Mullholland stable back in better form…a win a 2nd and a 3rd from last 3 runners I’m taking Hobbs Dream to bounce back to the type of form she was in around 12 months ago, which saw her record 2 very impressive victories off marks of 75….having flirted in the 100’s and 90’s she’s now back down to a much more realistic mark (83) and if she can get over what was a heavy looking fall last time out she should certainly be competitive off this mark tomorrow for me.
She won 2/2 in January last year as mentioned above and also 1/1 in January the year before which is another positive….hoping the ground gets a bit softer, as she loves to get her toe in..
Bet365 the only ones to price up and you may only be able to get peanuts on but I think they’ve overpriced her…
3pts ew @16/1 (Bet365) B.O.G
Running totals…
Selections – 14
Wins – 4
Place profit – 1
Losses – 9+68.13pts
I think that’s what you could call a Bobby Dazzler!!
Don’t ya just love it when the B.O.G comes into play…..
Had a quick look through tomorrow’s cards and although my confidence is sky high and form is very good at present, there’s nothing I really fancy…
Running totals…
Selections – 15
Wins – 5
Place profit – 1
Losses – 9+161.88pts
Really fancy one at a price tomorrow….
13.40 – Taunton –
Hobbs Dream
Bet365 the only ones to price up and you may only be able to get peanuts on but I think they’ve overpriced her…
3pts ew @16/1 (Bet365) B.O.G
Romps in at 25/1,superb write up too! Well Done Zam,keep up the good work,25/1 winners dont come along everyday!Excellent stuff!
Cheers mate, trying to rival people like your good self with these juicy priced ones, hopefully consistently over a long period of time too! Got a lovely bank to play with now anyway…
25/1 winners….they don’t come along very often you’re right! On second look though I’ve found one I’m interested in at a price so am hoping it’s like a case of big priced winners been like buses….none for ages and then two together.
3.30 – Leicester –
Numide
Now there’s a couple of penalised last time out winners in this at the head of the market, but I reckon the old boy can re-discover some of his better form to give them a good go tomorrow..
All his best form is on soft or heavy going which it looks like being tomorrow. He goes off a mark of (119) tomorrow, that’s 6lb less than his last winning mark at Bangor in March last year…
Two previous runs at the course have yielded a first and a second….I’d have liked to have seen a couple of the stables horses run a bit better but 2 winners in January says there shouldn’t be a problem there really…
Big key to this though for me is the mark (119) and it’s overall form on sft/hvy ground, looks to like the course so should be there or thereabouts for me if a few of the more fancied runners don’t back up their previous wins….
Firstly hope the meeting gets the go ahead and hope they all go to post so it’s the dead eight….
3pts ew @20/1 (Ladbrokes) B.O.G…
Last one a non-runner as meeting got wiped out so we’re as we were in running totals…
Hate it when the bad weather kicks in and disrupts everything…right down to searching through the racecards, I love to have a real good look and pick most of mine the night before. Always in two minds though when it’s like this as you could spend a couple of hours looking only for the time to have been a waste when it gets called off…
Anyway, having gone through Kempton (watch it be off now) I’ve found one I like at a price, so will stick it up….
15.40 –
Chevise
Difficult looking race this especially with the two at the head of the market looking to complete hat-tricks! Sulis Minerva in particular, a winner for me already in this thread earlier on…
I’m taking Chevise at a price though to hopefully re-discover some of the form she was in at around this time last year.
She’s on a mark I reckon she has every chance of being competitive off (78) tomorrow….She’s been hovering in and around that mark for quite a few runs now and there’s been one or two occasions where she hasn’t been that far away..
The key tomorrow could be the drop back to 6f and at a course she has 4 wins to her name at….She won her first four races of last year off marks of 74, 75 and two off 79, two at Lingfield and two at Kempton….she then didn’t really translate that form when tackling turf.
The fact she was in such good form around this time of year last year does bode well though and as I say a drop back to 6f could be key and I reckon she could go close off (78) with a 5lb claimer up too.
Don’t know too much about the trainer to be honest, so will only go pretty small…
2pts ew @25/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill) B.O.G
As we were again as another one that didn’t run with the meeting wiped out….frustrating looking through and thinking you’ve found something decent only for meeting to go….
Really, really strong on one tomorrow which shouldn’t be in any danger from the weather….
3.00 – Wolverhampton –
Patriotic
Strongly fancy Chris Dwyer’s 4yo to follow up his recent victory….could turn into a trappy little affair with just the five runners but Pipers Piping is usually handy and I reckon the selection could make the running if need be so not too concerned…
I definitely couldn’t back either of the top two with someone elses money in this…..McCool Bananas could be a possible danger but hard to place the faith in the horse being winless in 12 outings and has finished runner up over CD 4 times, each time being beaten less than a length……I don’t see anything in the profile to suggest that will change tomorrow in this contest either….
Master Of Dance certainly the danger for me but off the current mark think it will be hard to beat my selection conceding near on a stone (with De Silva’s claim)…
Patriotic won nicely the other day over CD and is turned back out quickly…. with that victory being an apprentice race he gets in here unpenalised and is a very confident selection to follow up for me…
8pt win @13/8 (Betvictor) B.O.G
Well the rollercaster rides on with another win and another nice little 13pt profit! Was well backed in the end right down to 11/10 and although leaving it very late reckon it won a shade cosily again…
Has been an unbelievable turnaround from when I first started the thread….went five selections without a winner and was -24pts at that stage….since then from the last 11 selections I’ve had 6 winners and a place profit…with wins at 25/1, 7/1, 11/2, 9/2, 4/1 and 11/10 completing a near on 200pt swing!
It will probably all go way downhill now I’ve put that, but my intention on starting the thread was proving to someone (and myself) that with a bit of thought and effort (and plenty of luck) anyone can produce winners and show a profit. I’m just a regular, normal family guy who works hard for a living but loves to try and solve races in the spare time I get. Every single one of my selections are based purely on my own judgement and the way I read the particular race I’m playing in.
I get sick to death of seeing all these paid tipsters popping up all over the place charging ridiculous monthly fees and giving out the bullshit lines they do. The people they are drawing in are probably weak and vulnerable and possibly a bit desperate aswell. I hope I’m proving (if only for the month or so I’ve been going) that it is possible to do far, far better than a lot of the shysters out there without any contacts, inside info etc, etc and all totally free of charge….
Now I’ve set myself up for the almighty fall, one I’ve picked out for tomorrow….
5.00 – Kempton –
Catchy Tune
Instantly caught my eye as a lot of John Fretwell owned horses with a similar profile do…Not the strongest of form in 3 maidens last year but upped in trip and off a mark of only 52 worth taking a chance that there maybe a bit of improvement in the horse for it’s handicap debut. The booking of Jamie Spencer looks a significant one and could be another positive…..Certainly not one to row in and pile into, but worth a small go with the possibility of money coming for it if they fancy it…
2pts ew @7/1 (Bet365) B.O.G
Running totals…
Selections – 16
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 1
Losses – 9+174.88pts
Unfortunately a loser the last one, but hopefully not the start of a bad run….
Hoping to get back on track with one running very shortly so will update all running figures (including this one and the last loser) later on today…
2.45 – Southwell –
Tornado Bob
All about whether the horse handles the surface for me….A very talented horse just had one or two problems jumping lately. Hopefully a spin round here will just give the feeling of getting the head back in front again. Huge respect for the Ellison pair but think Bob could be a bit too good if taking to the surface…
4pt win @SP
Just found one too good then Tornado Bob….couldn’t have backed the winner with someone elses money and won’t be placing any more faith or money in TB any time soon either…..Really hope I haven’t set myself up for a real bad run with bigging myself upa few posts back…..
One for tomorrow…
2.45 – Southwell –
Trans Sonic
Doesn’t really need much saying about it’s chances as they’re plain for all to see. Huge amount of respect for the trainer at placing horses and this looks to me as though it will take all the beating on these terms at a track it has easily good enough form to take this….could be short but a strong fancy to get back to winning ways…
8pt win @SP
Running totals…
Selections – 18
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 1
Losses – 11+166.88pts
Another loser unfortunately and the sickening thing is the winner of the race (Imprimis Tagula) is one I’ve been watching for a while and even had it down earlier on in this very thread….overlooked it though to my cost and the losing run goes to 3…..
Was going to leave it for a while but I’ve been sucked into one tomorrow in a seller of all races….I must be insane!
2.20 – Lingfield –
Catherine’s Call
I’ve gone through the race with a fine toothcomb and just cannot see any possible way this horse can be beaten tomorrow….I know claimers and sellers don’t always work out how it looks like they should, and more often than not they don’t. I have this being able to run a stone lower than it’s best and still winning comfortable though…The fact it won off a break on it’s re-appearance last season in February and in a small field just adds weight to it’s case for me and I’ll be totally shocked if it fails to win and win cosily….my 2nd maximum….trading around evens on betfair and don’t usually go that short and didn’t want to in this thread too much but looks too good to be true, so hope it goes better than the first!
10pt win @SP
Running totals…
Selections – 19
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 1
Losses – 12+158.88pts
Not played in a while with that last bet (my second maximum) another failure but a tough defeat to take losing by the minimum distance after looking all over the winner….market on the day told the story though as they flipflopped big time just before the race…..winner went in again though the other day and my selection was down to run but was pulled out of a race recently aswell, so could still be worth watching for next time……my own personal form was going through one of those awfully bad luck periods too where nothing seems to go right so I decided on a short break…..had a few winners again the last few days so hoping to get back on the winning trail on here….
Going for one today….
Danger signs are there with already a big drift, as they seem to be backing Gary Moore’s horse, but I’ve seen drifters win before and I can see this coming back in price later….
5.50 – Lingfield –
News Desk
As I say it could be alarming with the big drift, but the horse doesn’t know it’s drifting and won well enough over CD last time to suggest it’s well capable of winning here off only 66…
8 point win @15/8 (Bet365) B.O.G
Running totals…
Selections – 20
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 1
Losses – 13+148.88pts
Well I’m back after the Cheltenham dust has settled!
Terrible festival for me, the worst I can ever remember….that being part the reason I didn’t play on this thread, confidence went a bit with another loser the last time…..Another that looked all over the winner coming into the final furlong, but another that drifted badly and the market being spot on….
Anyway, back with one today and going back to smaller unit stakes at bigger prices, the likes of what seemed to pay off early on through my decent little run…
3.25 – Kempton – Duc De Regniere
Now in the hands of rookie trainer Tom Symonds (ex assistant to Hennderson) the horse ran his best race under his new trainer last time when 3rd behind Third Intention at Fontwell off a mark of 148…..the 5lb drop for today to 143 gives the horse an outstanding chance for me with his last hurdles victory (albeit some 3 years ago for Henderson) being 7lb higher……the clincher for me though is the horses form at Kempton…..5 runs there have yielded 4 wins and a 2nd…..that course form alone is enough to have a play at 20’s for me!
2pts ew @ 20/1 generally (with a B.O.G bookie)
Running totals…
Selections – 21
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 1
Losses – 14+140.88pts
Geez…..don’t get much worse than that…well, well beaten
think the horse lost it’s bearings and forgot it was at it’s favourite course Kempton
Still playing with a very healthy balance though and will attempt to halt the losing run tomorrow….
4.40 – Kempton –
Rockme Cockney
Looks to have the profile of one that the trainer excels with to me…..back after a break off what looks a very fair mark and has the excellent Raul Da Silva taking off another handy 5lb. Gask had his horses in excellent nick around this time last year just before the turf season proper started and I expect this one tomorrow to be turning up very fit and ready to do itself justice…
3pts ew @ 15/2 (Betvictor) (B.O.G)
Running totals…
Selections – 22
Wins – 6
Place Profit – 1
Losses – 15+136.88pts
well done sir!
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