March 26, 2017 at 00:39 #1294182
- Total Posts 8302
Emotions-wise I found it taxing from an ante-post viewpoint (most of my Festival bets would be antepost). We all have our own hit the crossbar stories and I’ve seen some really painful ones this week for others. One guy posted an EW Lucky 15 on Twitter (50p stakes):
Might Bite’s desperate charge to win by a whisker cost the guy £34,000.
I know there were many others who came so, so close to winning a lot of money – not least VTC on here waiting for Native River at huge odds.
But the ones that matter to you are those that affect you. To call me a grizzled veteran in the ups and downs of antepost is understating it and I don’t mind at all being wrong. My worst bet was my biggest and on reflection it was poorly thought out. I backed Tizz at 4/6 to win the Gold Cup when he still had 5 in the race, reckoning I could live with it if the three main ones got there. Backing each horse at best price represented a 1/3 chance and I can count on one hand the number of odds on chances I back in a year. But I convinced myself that this was superb value. Had it been within 48 hours of the race it would have been. 6 weeks before it, it was simply a bad bet, poorly reasoned and I’m happy to take the consequences.
Of the rest, I, like many, backed Willoughby Court for the wrong race. I backed Neon Wolf at 33s for the Neptune and 50s for the Supreme (which I think he’d have won), Fox Norton at 50s for the QM (Altior at 55 for QM though on his lacklustre Arkle show I’m not sure now that he’d have won had he run) I had quite a decent bet on Charbel for the Arkle at 33s and smaller bets on him at big exchange prices. I backed West Approach at 50 for the AB, and although I doubt he’d have won that, it would have been the sensible option. I backed The New One at 50s plus for the World Hurdle in the hope that even his crackpot trainer would see sense and finally run him in the right race.
The Champion Hurdle’s becoming my bogey race having backed Brain Power at 50 (Steve, I think he simply ran much too keen in the early stages; perhaps Nicky should have run him beforehand, although the way he went out of it, I very much doubt he’d have been involved). I backed Moon Racer at 50/1 and that might just have been poor judgement again. I don’t think he’s as bad as he looked on Tuesday, but he might well be. I’d never have bet the winner at what looked skinny odds.
All in all, I’m glad I cut back deeply last year on festival antepost (Vautour left a lifelong wound). And given Mullins’s continued multiple entry/leave it late strategy and now Gigginstown taking horses out of big races on the Alice in Wonderland premise that an extra 2lbs might result in them dying in the race, their entries now need treated with similar caution. Between those Irish ‘giants’, you know how many races they won, so having any festival antepost bet no longer makes sense, for me, at least. Case in point: Empire of Dirt: I’m not a fan but some good judges here are and wanted him to run in Ryanair/Gold Cup accordingly. Key factor is that the trainer – hailed by many as the second coming – was absolutely convinced the horse held a much better chance in the Gold Cup. O’Leary ignored him and went for his own race. His prerogative, of course, but another stark warning about how the choices of temperamental individuals can affect races you’re betting in.
Another factor is the utter dominance of the Irish. Some blame the handicapper, but I suspect that whatever steps are taken, Irish trainers will work out how to keep winning at the Festival. Witness Power’s confident shout right after the Gold Cup: “Are you going home, now?’
‘Not yet. We’ve the Grand Annual to win with Rock The World.”
That was not tongue in cheek…that, as they say, was the plan. And this coming not from a Mullins or Elliott, but from a trainer who has trained more than 50 winners in one season just twice in her 30-year career. That, to me, speaks volumes.
If something jumps out at me from a smallish yard and I’m 90% certain of the Festival target, I might have a bet if the price is right, but I think I’m probably done with it now.
Just had time read your post Joe and it totally sums up the highs and lows of this year’s Festival.
Your frustrations re Ante Post wagers, the gaping hole left by the death of Vatour Mullins multiple entries must be a bookies delight with punters like yourself and others backing horses to win the wrong races and Mr O’Leary’s antics ..beyond belief.
A good honest summary which makes me glad that I rarely do Ante Post bets (says she who has taken 40/1 Eminent to win the 2000 Guineas ) when Churchill will probably make the the race his own according to a lot of good tipsters on here.
We never stop dreaming of what might be and it’s important to never stop believing,but horses are unpredictable beings who delight in messing up our Lucky 15’s and accumulators.. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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