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ive had Albertas Run, Back On line E/W, Our Vic and now Inglis Drever today! Immagine if i had picked Master Minded instead of Voy Por…oh well!!
Will Inglis be retired now you think?
Oh dear Zoso
Inglis Drever too old, and what else did you say? Master Minded too young wasn’t it?Did you also, by any chance, say Katchit was too small?
Andy,
I backed Old Benny @ 9/1, Albertas Run @ SP, Our Vic @ 9/2 and Inglis Drever @ 11/8.
But it’s not a gloat – I took my own advice and after a blank on Tues decided against any multiple combination bets LOL
Can’t complain – the money is just a bonus – just more beers. To see Our Vic finally get up, a superb performance by Master Minded and Inglis getting up for a third time.
What a festival so far.
Lee
Well done mate! Just wish i was this good at finding the winners every time! Oh well, im off to Gold Cup day tomo so i will no doubt lose the lot when Kauto falls and Afistfullofdollars wins!
Fantastic performance from Inglis Drever.
Really pleased for him.
Pleased with the run from My Way De Solzen too, just needs dropping back in trip, but ran really well.
Please leave the aftertiming for another thread – show some respect for the ever-young Inglis Drever.
Well done, Zoso.
There also, where are you ? I’ll be in the cheap seats Best Mate enclosure.
Absolutely convinced I’ve used up all my luck though.
As for finding winners, prior to today I think my last one was prior to Fist’s childhood days !!
If Inglis Drever was 20/1 I would still give him the same chance as I would if he was 1/20 absolutely silly to think any other way IMO…
Absolutely agree Fist, but – VALUE DEBATE ALERT –[/color:2pgej933] it has to affect whether you back him or not. If it doesn’t, then you are in serious trouble…
Of course NV I very very seldom back odds on unless I see a gift…….Kauto Star and Denman at just under 7/4 was probably the best value bet of the season. Very little risk involved and a better price that you could get for either of them winning the Gold cup.
The only Odds on single I had was Binocular I took 10/11 and thought it was my birthday
I bet Denman at 2/5 in his last race which was stealing money as it turned out because I was already hooked on The Listener as Carvills had convinced me he was a good thing and wasn’t wrong……just boosted his price………Other than that I avoid them like the plague…..It’s too much money for too little reward IMO.
The worst example I have seen on here was from Mr. Value………..he may end up winning but the odds of him making more than a few shillings are about 2000/1 imo.
Two ew bets on two horses against Kauto Star and Denman……in real terms if one got placed he will get 1/4 on his cash……….If the other one got placed he will getting something like 5/4. If both get paced he will get a decent return.
But he needs one of the big 2 be out the first three to have any chance of a decent return and what’s the chances both his would fill 2nd and 3rd anyway? He has to get both of them beat and one of his horse to be the horse to win to get a very good return.
How someone can talk value then place a bet like that is beyond my comprehension
I’ll leave you to work out the odds of that happening.
Oh dear Zoso
Inglis Drever too old, and what else did you say? Master Minded too young wasn’t it?Did you also, by any chance, say Katchit was too small?
Zoso takes chances but don’t underestimate him he has had some great days laying and betting horses EW which I have witnessed and no after timing………he’s nuts at times but he does appear to make money out of betting which is more than can be said for alot of the would be judges on here.
The man laid Sizing Europe and no matter what the excuses were I and many others were wrong and he was right…………even if it was beaten for a totally different reason than he predicted……no doubt he won plenty doing it nd can affford to take chances like those.
Aitmatov 2% 50/1 (28/1)
Blazing Bailey 12% 15/2 (6/1)
Chief Dan George 0.25% 400/1 (100/1)
Ebaziyan 0.3% 300/1 (80/1)
Flight Leader 0.5% 200/1 (66/1)
Hardy Eustace 4.25% 22/1 (16/1)
Inglis Drever 40% 6/4 (11/8
Kasbah Bliss 6.75% 14/1 (10/1)
Kazal 6.75% 14/1 (10/1)
Lough Derg 4% 25/1 (18/1)
My Way De Solzen 11.5% 15/2 (6/1)
Redemption 0.05% 2000/1 (500/1)
Sonnyanjoe 0.45% 200/1 (66/1)
Special Envoy 2.5% 40/1 (25/1)
The Market man 3.5% 28/1 (20/1)
Wicheta Lineman 5% 20/1 (14/1)
Material World 0.2% 500/1 (100/1)Figures in brackets show prices I would offer if I were a bookie, working to 124.9%.
Fist does not understand what the figures mean so will try one last time.
For every £1 staked at 6/4 a punter wins £1.50 plus £1 stake back. Returning £2.50.
So if out of 100 bets of £1, he wins 40, then he breaks even. 40 x £2.50 = £100. He has staked £100 and got back £100.
Another way of saying 40 out of 100 is 40%.
There is no point in winning less than 40% of bets at 6/4, it would result in a loss. The aim must be to win more than 40% of bets at 6/4.
So if a punter works out the percentage he believes each horse to have (as I did in the World Hurdle above), he should back any horse who is, in his opinion a better price than his 100% book.
If he is a good at form assesment then he wins more than 40% of his bets at 6/4 and wins over all.Fist,
Let’s go back to before exchanges had an influence on bookmakers.
Bookies employed an odds compiler who would work out a race to 100%, as I have done above (figures in bold). He then adds a bookmakers mark up and those are offered as his early prices (as I did in the figures in brackets, working to 124.9%.As you can see Fist. My assesment of Ingliss Drever was a 40% chance.
If I can get bigger than 6/4 (40%) I back it. Same or lower than 6/4, no bet.
Nobody before the race knows what is going to happen, he could win or lose, all that can be done is to quantify his (and every other horses) chance. That is an opinion, just as the bookmakers price is an opinion.
If I were a bookmaker in this race (adding a percentage to each price), my offered price would be 40% + 2% = 42% = 11/8. If I as a punter believe a horse at 11/8 had a better than 42% chance I would back it.Ginge
Value Is Everything
Inglis Drever too old, and what else did you say? Master Minded too young wasn’t it?
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